Mobilizing the retired leader of Xianneng to solve the tradition of some difficult problems within Asia's internal security may be recovered to slow down the tension caused by the existing broken lines in Asia and promote the peace of the region rather than war.

A sudden war occurred in 2022: Ukraine.Another sudden war appeared in 2023: Gaza.Anyone who believes that there will be no more wars in 2024, they should check him or her mind.There are still many fault lines that may cause war.

In Asia, at least five fault lines we have to monitor cautiously (if possible, push them to peace rather than war).

The most dangerous central area is Taiwan.This is a topic that causes direct conflict between the two super powers in the United States and China.US President Biden personally worried about this.He has said four times that the United States will defend Taiwan, which is obviously to play a deterrent role to send a signal: the United States should not see Taiwan ignite war.

2024 is a high -risk year in Taiwan.As a result of the presidential election, Lai Qingde, a DPP candidate who is more inclined to Taiwan independence.The Taiwanese want to maintain the existing autonomous desire to understand that they will continue to live the current life and have the current lifestyle.Paradoxically, the more they voted to Taiwan independence candidates, the more they endanger their cherishment.

Once Taiwan announces its independence, China will declare war.The United States fully understands this.Therefore, when the leader of Taiwan independence, Chen Shui -bian, attempts to pass the referendum in 2003, and stomped his feet to independence, and US President Bush resolutely opposed it.If Washington can now adhere to this position, Taiwan can be exempted from war.

It is sad that there will be a more dangerous US presidential election in 2024, and Biden is likely to fight against his former Trump.Repeated Trump will be more difficult to predict if he is elected.Democratic and Republican parties will try to surpass each other and show that they are more anti -China.Some Taiwanese may be mistaken for their strong support from the American government.They should read history.The pawn in geopolitics will always be sacrificed, just see today's Ukraine.

The second largest fault line is between China and India, two giants in Asia.Small conflicts in the border between the two countries in June 2020 led to casualties.The mutual trust between China and India collapsed.Even today, there is no recovery.The Chinese and Indians have nothing to do with each other in Singapore. They have to ask themselves how to maintain the local harmony in case of war in China and India.

The good news is that the two countries do not seem to have war. The border negotiations between their army and the government cool down for tension.The bad news is that both sides have increased military deployment and equipment on the border.If an unexpected conflict occurs, there will be more lives and casualties.If China -India relations deteriorate in 2024, Asia will be shrouded in a large geopolitical political black cloud.

The third most dangerous fault line is in India and Pakistan.Many experts who know nuclear wars believe that the closest to triggering nuclear conflicts is India and Pakistan.This is why the US President Clinton and his government intervened immediately when the Kagil conflict occurred in 1999.In the late 1990s, American strength played an influence in the era of monomerization.Now we live in a polarized world.The influence of the United States has disappeared. It tried to promote peace between Israel and Palestine, but failed.Effective promotion and need to have decisive power.

The fourth most dangerous fault line comes from China and Japan.The trust deficit between China and Japan is even higher than between China and India, because most Chinese have not forgotten the atrocities of Japan before and during World War II.A savvy Japanese government will strive to maintain a smooth relationship with China.

Of course, about the Diaoyu Islands or Jiange Island, the Japanese government led by the then Prime Minister Noda Kayan decided to buy it from the hands of private owners and before the "nationalization", everything was relatively calm.China is very angry with the status quo in Japan.The clever words of the Japanese government should return to the past to calm down.But Japanese democratic politics (the same is the same) reward nationalist politicians, not a mild and thoughtful leader.Therefore, this territorial dispute is still very "hot", which is a potential fire point that leads to positive conflicts.

The fifth most dangerous fault line is the latest, and it is also closest to Southeast Asia: between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.At first, the Magaks government managed to establish a close relationship with China. Using Maccous, he followed his mother Imei to visit China in 1974 in 1974. He has seen the fact that Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai have closer.At that time, Mao Zedong kissed Yimei's hand, and then her son kissed Mao Zedong's cheeks excitedly, and the photos of capturing the scene were widely circulated.China respects those who have been close to Mao Zedong.

But there was a mess in the middle, and the dispute in the South China Sea became more frequent.The Filipino armed forces who have traditionally been closely related to the United States and the Philippines are happy.It is understandable to establish a close relationship with the United States, but it can learn from Vietnam and build a close relationship with China and the United States.In fact, all the Asianan countries are working hard to maintain a good relationship with the two powers.

Ukraine and Gaza are more geographically far away from Southeast Asia.Theoretically, we should not be affected by conflicts there.But we are actually affected, and they are shrouded in shadows in the future.Imagine how bad our situation will be in this area.The influence of psychology and material will be far greater than the present, and it will also have a chain response to investment confidence and economic growth.

These fault lines may have a sudden war in 2024. Under this circumstances, Asian countries meet logical reactions, it should be to take the initiative to strengthen the power to promote and defense.However, this came to the core of the problem.Despite the essence of peace and death, there are no peace guardians in Asia that everyone recognizes or highly respected.There is a "elder" Council of the Elderly, which was established by Mandela in 2007. The Nobel Peace Prize winner and former UN Secretary -General Annan was responsible for leading before his death from 2013 to 2018.Now, leaders are former Irish President Marie Robinson, and there are no similar organizations in Asia, although there are similar needs for the "elder" group.

Perhaps this is an area where Ya'an can play a leading role.When Ya'an wants to formulate a charter, it will turn to a sage group (including former Philippine President Ramos, former Indonesian Foreign Minister Aradas, and former Vice Premier Jagluma, Singapore), and they are drafted by them.

Mobilizing the retired leader of Xianneng to solve the tradition of some tricky problems within Asia's internal security may be recovered to slow down the tension caused by the existing broken lines in Asia and promote the peace of the region rather than war.Prior to this, the "Asian Peace Programme" can continue to do some efforts for Asia's peace, hoping that it can play the same role as acupuncture -to strengthen the peace culture of this area through some subtle suggestions.

The author is an outstanding scholar at the Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore and the initiator of the "Asian Peace Plan"