Wang Fengling: The flavor of the Gunnote of North Korea and South Korea, the flavor of

Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

Author: Wang Fengling

At the beginning of the New Year, North Korea and South Korea made multiple rounds of tit -for -tat comments for three consecutive days, showing a hard -to -touch gesture.The analysis of the interviewees believes that the tension of the Korean Peninsula has intensified, and local friction will not be ruled out.However, this move also shows that the actual goal of the two sides is to avoid greater conflicts with deterrent methods. It is expected that the situation in the peninsula this year is still within the controllable range.

South Korean President Yin Xiyue said on the 1st speech on the 1st that in the first half of this year, the construction of the Korean and American extension deterrence mechanism will be completed, and the North Korean nuclear guide threat will be blocked from the source.

The Deputy Minister of the Central Committee of the North Korean Workers' Party, Kim and Zheng, said on the 2nd on the 2nd, responding that President Yin is the "special hero" to help North Korea develop self -defense military forces.The nuclear combat effectiveness provides a reasonable and legal score.

The Ministry of National Defense of Korea also refuted Kim and Zheng on the 3rd, saying that the statement called the thief to catch a thief, and the Korean army maintained a high alert situation, and would immediately, powerful, and completely counter -North Korea's provocations.

For the beginning of the beginning of the North and South Korea, Yu Xiao, the deputy dean of the Northeast and Northeast Asian Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed it to the Hong Kong News Agency on the 3rd that the propaganda of the two sides did not break away from the established work target this year.The North Korean side has made a clear judgment on the situation and the North -South relations of the peninsula and the North -South relations based on the external environment in the past year, and then the policy has shifted. In 2024, it will accelerate the combat reserve work. Specifically, it may include further military cooperation between North Korea and Russia and improve the deterrent ability.EssenceIn South Korea, the extension of the deterrence mechanism and the US and South Korea military exercises have already been set, but it is impossible to express it by the impact of North Korea.

The strong attitude of the Korean side is also related to the chaos in China.Yu Xiao continued that Yin Xiyue's internal affairs were criticized by the public, and the first lady Jin Jianxi was also caught in real estate and stock price manipulation investigation storms. In comparison, Yin Xiyue's foreign policy scores were high, especially for some people's support.In addition, South Korea will hold a Congress election in April. Yin Xiyue's election is not optimistic. At this time, the largest first in the wild party Li Zaiming's assassination incident.Rendering theme.

Since Yin Xiyue came to power, especially in last year, the spiral of North Korea and South Korea rose, and the confrontation between the peninsula intensified.The US -South Korea -intensive army played the muscles, the United States, Japan and South Korea strengthened the coordination on the third side, and the US strategic nuclear submarine frequently visited South Korea.North Korea responded to stepping up the launch of missiles and investigation satellites.Double North Korea and South Korea stopped some of the terms of the Joint Declaration of Pyongyang in September, and each announced that the meeting would not hesitate to fight against each other, which means that the risk prevention mechanism of both parties has basically failed.

At the ninth plenary session of the eighth Central Committee held at the end of the year of North Korea, Kim Jong -un's historic transformation of North Korea and South Korea was set.Essence

Whether it is diplomatic propaganda or military deployment, the North Korea has a tip to Mai Mang for the beginning of the North and South Korea.In the next year, can the situation in the peninsula remain in the controlled range?

Yu Xiao's analysis believes that there is no doubt that the situation on the peninsula will exacerbate tensions. The North Korean division line does not rule out local friction, such as shelling or cross -border behavior.Whether the two sides can manage and control in time.However, DPRK and South Korea do not have military preparations and psychological preparations. Although the two sides are fighting hard, the specific actions are also deployed, and no one can be soft, but the actual goal is deterrent to avoid greater conflicts.It is expected that the situation in the peninsula this year is still within the controlled range, and large -scale conflicts will not occur.