In 2023, the US economy was unexpectedly good, but Biden's support rate was unprecedentedly low.The U.S. Congress Mountain News At the end of the year's comments, if the election of Biden and Trump was held today, Biden would definitely be defeated.The polls announced by Montmoma University in December last year showed that Biden's support rate was only 34%, which is the worst support rate during his presidential term, and it will be defeated according to this support rate.
Think back at this time a year ago, the predictor almost agreed that the US economy went into recession.Bloomberg determined that the probability of US economic recession in 2023 was 100%.Today, the US economy has achieved soft landing; the definition of soft landing is that the growth of output and employment gradually slowed down to the level lower than potential and natural rates, while inflation decreased.In the third quarter of the United States, the growth rate of GDP (GDP) was fixed to 4.9%in the third quarter. In November, the consumer price index rose 3.1%year -on -year, and in June 2022, it reached a peak of 9.1%.The unemployment rate in November decreased from 3.9%to a four -month low of 3.7%.
"Wages cannot keep up with prices" is aware of the economy
"Stupid, the key is the economy" invented by James Carville in 1992.Kavier was a strategic consultant to defeat Bush's presidential President that year that year.Clinton's campaign successfully used the U.S. economic recession at that time as one of the ways to overthrow Bush.However, the "idiot, the key is the economy" is not spiritual in Biden. After the end of the crown disease, the US economy performed extremely well. Last year, the S & P 500 index rose 24%, which was only 0.6%from the record high in January 2022.The Dow Jones Index rose 14%last year and exceeded the 37,000 -point mark for the first time.
But the American people do not recognize the ability of Biden government to govern the economy and do not accept Biden Economics.According to the public opinion survey of Gallop's September last year, Americans believe that the economy is deteriorating.Only 20%of adults indicate that the economic situation is "excellent" or "good".32%said "just ordinary", and 48%said they were "poor".Americans are not optimistic about economic prospects. 73%of people believe that "the economic conditions of the entire country" are deteriorating; more and more Americans believe that the economy is "the most important issue facing this country."
The views of most American people's cognitive economic situation are very simple: wages cannot keep up with prices.Since Biden took office, the average salary has been calculated at actual value (adjusted according to inflation), which is about 3%lower than the peak in April 2020.During the epidemic period, low -wage workers increased their job in unemployment.But even if today's wages are compared with the trend before the big popularity, the salary is still about 2%lower than the expectations.However, actual data shows that the wages of American workers generally rise, but personal feelings are different.
Another reason why American people are not optimistic about the economy are inflation.For decades, the inflation rate in the United States has been at a low level. Even if the actual wage increases, it is not enough to offset the impact of prices, but people's hallucinations have caused their income to not be affected.Traditional American Foundations blame Biden Economics by rising inflation rates.They believe that when Biden took office, the inflation rate was lower than the Fed's 2%target, and the price of 12 months rose only 1.4%.However, the year and a half after Biden Economics was promoted to the large -scale government spending, and the annual inflation rate reached 9.1%.
The Wall Street Journal reported on December 18, 2023 that more than half of the American people now believe that they have been hurt by Biden's policy, and almost the same voters think Trump's policy has helped them.Voters of different political spectrums have listed inflation and high prices as a big complaint about President Bayeng's term.Democratic poll expert Boxian said voters remember that Trump's inflation rate was lower during the presidential period.
On the same day, the Washington Post published an article entitled "It is said that Bayeng's increasingly frustrated number of the bleak polls" pointed out that Biden had called for the core circle to explain why his polls were so bleak, and asked them as adopting them.What measures are the measures to improve the number of polls.Biden complained that his economic success failed to promote the development of the situation. The biggest shame of the decline in Biden's support rate was that Trump's public opinion support rose rose.
Older or governing ability has become a road stop?
The article believes that the objective fact that Biden ignored was that he was never a popular figure.Biden's unpopular facts have existed since he served as the president.Just two weeks after taking office, the New York Times pointed out that although he has received a wide range of positive support, his support rate on the day of the inaugural ceremony is not close to Obama.Six months after Biden took office, it was popular, but then began to decline.In the 2020 campaign, Biden's nomination was not because he was very popular, but because he was running as a middle school.
In January 2021, Biden was 78 years old when he was sworn in president, which made him the largest president in American history.For example, Bynden, who is 81 years old, wants to continue to appear on the president's throne. Will the American people choose the old man who walks and falls?In September 2023, the Wall Street Journal poll showed that most voters believed that Biden was too old to be re -elected, and gave him a low score on the issue of the economic and other important impacts on voters' voting.
Bengdeng and Trump's old age are the reality of aging in the United States.The average life expectancy of Americans rose from 68.2 years in 1950 to 77.8 years in 2020.Medical progress means that people not only have a longer life span, but they often reach the highest cognitive ability when they are old.A study published in the magazine of the American Medical Association in 2017 found that the prevalence of dementia in the elderly declined significantly from 2000 to 2012.Dir, a professor of the psychology of the research life development of the State University of Colorado, said: "The actual age itself cannot show a person's ability well."
Democrats are more worried about Biden's governance capabilities than older problems.The polls conducted by Harvard's Kennedy College Political Research Institute in October 2023 showed that young voters' trust in Trump's economies of dealing with Biden was 15 percentage points higher than Biden.On the issue of Harbin conflict, 46%of young Democrats trust Bayen on this issue, and 9%of them trust Trump more.The Wall Street Journal's survey in September last year showed that in terms of the political performance of the term of office, the ratio of Trump's voters was 11 percentage points higher than the voters who supported Biden.51%believe that Trump's performance was better during his presidency.
From the perspective of voters' opinions, the age is not the real stumbling block of the road of Biden. Voters just judge the ability of Biden and Trump with their own cognition.Trump is only four years younger than Biden.In November last year, the United States reported that the White House doctor told the public after the recent medical examination that Biden was still a "healthy, energetic 80 -year -old male".The matter exceeds the scope of any schedule.Can the government officials believe that voters can be believed?
Election is the Guarantee of the U.S. President's Sports Sports System
Election is the only way to produce presidents in the United States. Although there are various disadvantages of the US elections, it is thousands of times better than the people who cannot elect their leaders.Perhaps American voters were wrong in 2020, but voters could choose again.Even if you choose a less good president, the power of the president is restricted, so the impact of the president's mistakes is limited.
The system designed by the founding of the United States to make the United States lasting, and the system can achieve economic and politically survival of the fittest.Compared with Russia, Putin launched a large amount of Russian national power in the Russian and Ukraine War, but the Russian people could not let the dictator step down. Perhaps the brainwashing people did not think that the Russian and Ukraine War was a disaster of Russia. The ignorant people could continue the backward system.
The author is Shanghai current affairs commentator
