Looking at the various polls in Taiwan recently, Lai Xiao has almost lived in a leading position. It can be considered that they have the highest winning percentage.However, there are still variables in the final stage of the election, especially how the abandoned insurance between the blue and white camps will evolve, and whether the abandoned insurance has developed to the extent that it will affect the overall situation.
There will be different polls during the Taiwan election, and the credibility is different.It is important to note that some of the more credible polls may become less credible during specific elections.For research and judgment, a more reasonable method is to refer to a number of polls and try to avoid the use of high -limit polls.
Lianhe Zaobao published an article by Chen Guoxiang, a former chairman of the Taiwan Central News Agency on November 30th.The senior media person in the blue camp quoted the Minami Electronics News (November 23): Lai Qingde's support was 31.4%, Hou Youyi was 31.1%, and Ke Wenzhe was 25.2%.He also mentioned ETTODAY polls (November 25): Lai Xiao with 34.8%, Hou Kang with 32.5%, and Ke Ying with 21.2%ranked third.He mainly concluded that "the presidential election will be a blue -green duel this time will be a blue -green duel" based on the two polls.
The article also mentioned the polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on the support of political parties: 25.3%support the people's party, 24.8%support the Kuomintang, and 24.5%of the DPP.However, it should be able to launch the selection bureau as the "top three hegemony" instead of the "two strong hegemony" -the he only comes to "the DPP's monopoly advantage is gone."In addition, in order to reach the conclusions of the "two strong hegemony" of the blue and green "two strong hegemon", Mr. Chen did not quote the support of Ke Wenzhe's support released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on November 28, 31.9%, Lai Qingde 29.2%, and Hou Youyi 23.6%.
Pan Mengan, the director of the Democratic Progressive Party President Lai Qingde, pointed out on November 30 that the polls from the Blue and Baihe (from November 15th to 24th) were distorted.The correct approach should actually be: carefully look at the polls before and after the blue and white combination, and do not easily conclude that the election situation has changed significantly.However, according to the two polls before and after the Blue and White Break, Mr. Chen obtained the evolution of the selection bureau into a strong hegemony.
Regarding the existing polls in this election, You Yinglong, chairman of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, pointed out on Facebook on December 5: "It should belong to the rolling poll of the total internal reference in the competition.Especially because the "city dialect 'polls will overestimate the support of the two major party candidates, it is seriously unfavorable to small party candidates." Meilimao Electronics Public Tune is the "city talk" poll, which is indeed not conducive to the party's party Ke Wenzhe.It should also be pointed out that Chen Guoxiang quoted the 77th wave of the Miyo Island Electronics News — about tracking polls, and there are also controversy in Taiwan.
There are already senior media people in Taiwan questioning the polls of Beautiful Island Electronics.For example, Wang Shangzhi pointed out in a political program that the poll was Wu Zijia, the chairman of the Meilizimao Electronics News, "the tool for his personal grievances to hit Ke P" and "the tool with wind direction".Since Wu Zijia said on July 14 this year, after the people's party said that the party was "rotten party" and Ke Wenzhe's "put dogs and bite people", the author's attitude towards the beautiful island polls will be more cautious than before.
As for the ETTODAY polls, the survey method is notified by mobile phone text messages, instead of marketing and mobile phone investigation.At the press conference on November 22, the poll expert Guan Zhiyu pointed out that the ETTODAY poll can be a questioner after logging in to its website to become a member because the public must first log in to its website. "It does not meet the general public opinionInvestigate passive and random access methods.
Lianhe Zaobao's December 5 article early known: In the authentic mysteries of polls: "This kind of investigation refusal rate is as high as 95 %, and those who return the back are positive.Rate '. For example, Ling Media and ETTODAY, etc., sometimes they must send 450,000 text messages in a day to recycle sufficient samples. "All basis for conclusions.
According to the inflow poll in December, in the market dialect and more than 2,000 large sample surveys in the market, Lai Xiao's support is 36.7%, 37.8%, and 35.9%in the second, third, and fourths;The degree was 26.4%, 29.0%, and 27.6%, respectively; Ke Ying's support was 25.2%, 24.7%, and 25.5%, respectively.According to the polls, Lai Xiao has a lead, and the gap between Hou Kangbing and Ke Ying is relatively small. At present, the election campaign situation cannot be said to be "the three parties compete for two strong hegemony."In fact, some of the dissatisfaction with the polls of the beautiful island will pay more or less attention from the flow of flow (You Yinglong also must have passed the flow poll in the political program).
According to the polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on December 29, Lai Xiao's support was 32.4%, Hou Kang was 28.2%, and Ke Ying was 24.6%.This poll is similar to the flow of flow polls: Lai Xiao has a lead, and the gap between Hou Kang and Ke Ying is limited.
Even if Ke Ying is third place, if the gap with Hou Kang is not large, and the gap between Hou Kang and Lai Xiao is more obvious, it should still be said to be the "top three hegemony" instead of the "two strong hegemony."As far as Jiang Wanan, Chen Shizhong, and Huang Shanshan played against the Taipei mayor in 2022, it should be called the "three strong hegemony" instead of the "two strong hegemony".There is a certain gap in Chen Shizhong).
Finally, talk about the two ginseng polls.The people's party Huang Shanshan announced on December 29: Ke Ying's support was 28.7%, which was higher than Hou Kang's 22.7%, but it was 31.7%lower than Lai Xiao.Earlier, the party's continuous release of internal polls should help strengthen the confidence of Ke Wenzhe's supporters, so that they are not conducive to Ke Wenzhe's polls -such as beautiful island electronics newspaper polls -to be discouraged.This should be regarded as a counterattack in polls.
In addition, the polls of the President of Quickseek and the polls of mirror news and political and economic situation also revealed that recently, Ke Ying's support has been overtaken by Hou Kang, but it still lags behind Lai Xiao.According to the latest internal participation polls of the Kuomintang (mobile phone survey plus indoor telephone), Ke Ying's support (22.4%) lags behind Hou Kang (25.6%), with a gap of 3.2 percentage points.Back behind.
The last thing to say is that in the recent view of various polls in Taiwan, Lai Xiao has almost lived in a leading position. It can be considered that they have the highest winning percentage.However, there are still variables in the final stage of the election, especially how the abandoned insurance between the blue and white camps will evolve, and whether the abandoned insurance has developed to the extent that it will affect the overall situation.
The author is a time -to -time judge, researcher of cross -strait relations, researchers
