Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao
Author: Guan Zhongran
There are still three months before the Taiwan elections next year, and they are turning into the final straight path.The results of this election have a direct impact on the tension on the two sides of the strait. Hong Kong, as a demonstrator of the "one country, two systems,", should naturally care about and closely developing the situation.As the election approaches, the wind and grass of all parties are worthy of attention.The latest development continues to focus on the integration of the wild forces. Ke Wenzhe first took the initiative to throw out the integration plan, and proposed that "determine the polls" who is elected to challenge the DPP.
If you do not integrate, you can make victory
In Taiwan, all voters who want the DPP to step down are the taste of hate iron and steel.Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe were already difficult to distinguish. In addition, Guo Taiming, who was later aimed at chaos and was elected by co -signs, was even more speechless.This mood is also found on the other side -when Guo Taiming announced the election, the information from Beijing was also clear, that is, Guo's move "equivalent to the same way to send Lai Qingde to the stage."If the "troublemaker" in the mouth of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland is elected, the DPP continues to be in power.
Of course, the so -called field integration is not easy: first because each candidate has a specific location on the political spectrum, there are exclusive supporters; second, the candidates who are concessionsSelection first, not integrating one day, no concession, and the opportunity to win the election next year.If you work withdrawal for three or two times, you will not come out to run.However, it is difficult to integrate. Under the simple majority selection, the non -integration is to directly give the victory to Lai Qingde. Therefore, it is necessary to be integrated.The remaining problem is how to integrate, and whether it is strongly fighting with Lai Qingde after the integration.
According to Guo Taiming, the requirements of the number of the joint agencies (the limited period is November 2), and obtained qualifications for running.But the integration that is now talking about is actually just a matter between Ke Wenzhe and Hou Youyi.If the integration of Ke Hou is successful, Guo Taiming has no excuse to continue the election, even if he is lonely, he is harmless and harmless.At the end of September, the People's Party first proposed to make a decision by "from a third -party poll" to select the candidate and defeat one party to withdraw. LaterThe defeated party recommends the deputy, forming a formal election to form a "joint government" in the future.In the process of promoting integration, Ke Wenzhe occupied the opportunity.
Ke Wenzhe has the initiative to integrate the initiative Hou Youyi to improve the performance of polls
From the current poll results and Hou Youyi's response, it is not difficult to understand that Ke Wenzhe has initiative in integration.The results of the polls in Taiwan are full of flowers. Even if the accuracy is suspicious, the results of various polls show that Ke Wenzhe leads Hou Youyi.This means that if the polls in the wild forces are the main method, Ke Wenzhe will be the winner.The Kuomintang and Hou Youyi responded to Hou Wenzhe's plan. Hou Youyi said that "polls are a reference, but not the only way." As for any other ways, he did not say more, only emphasizing that the integration process must be fully communicated.The Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun said that he welcomed "blue and white", "hoping that Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe could meet as soon as possible."
The primary election within the party can still be decided by the party's Central Committee (but even if the Kuomintang was called Hou Youyi at the beginning, it was referenced by the polls). Now involved in cross -party cooperation, naturally no one can make a sound, and the mechanism must be set, and the mechanism must be set.No matter how designed, the results of polls will be the key.For the Kuomintang, the most important thing to do is to try their best to improve Hou Youyi's performance in various polls.The so -called time limit refers to the final registration period for the last registration as a presidential election candidate, that is, November 24.If it cannot be integrated before November 24, the situation of three (or even four) candidates will continue to appear. What will be discussed will no longer be integrated, but abandoning insurance.And this kind of abandonment is probably just the end of each word, voters at a loss, and Lai Qingde to enjoy its success.
So Hou Youyi may increase the support of polls at the rest of the time?Normally, if the integration mechanism is determined (what polls are used, the proportion of different polls, etc.), then before and the polls, the candidates should debate well, so that voters can know more clearly and knowThe strength and political platform of each candidate.However, the performance of this time after Hou Youyi announced the election seems to be "silent and sound."Standing on the stage and confrontation, for the Kuomintang and Hou Youyi, there are more poison than Lingdan.Therefore, what the Kuomintang has to calculate, in addition to how to improve Hou Youyi's victory, but also in the future "United Government", how to get more right to speak, including whether it can be more coordinated in the legislature election, thus becoming the largest party of the Legislative Yuan's largest partyIntersection
Kockeng to the Blue Camp may be lost
Put the focus back on Ke Wenzhe.In the cooperation between blue and white, Ke Wenzhe seems to be in the upper hand; but over the emphasis on the attitude of "blue and white", is it improving for Ke Wenzhe?In the past analysis of Ke Wenzhe's source of votes, both the votes of Ke Wenzhe and the people's party in the Taipei mayor's election reflected the votes obtained by Ke Wenzhe, most of which came from the DPP supporters.Similarly, from the perspective of the non -sectarian party votes elected by the Legislative Yuan, you can see the sources of the party's party votes.
Ke Wenzhe's people's party, the first election of the Legislative Yuan in 2020, the five seats obtained, all obtained in the non -partition political party votes, and the first election became the third largest party.In the same election, the Kuomintang and the Times of the Times have improved compared with the previous part of the parties; the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party, the Democratic Party and the New Party are inferior to the previous session.Both the Kuomintang and the People ’s Party have more than 1 million votes. The growth of the Kuomintang can be explained from the consciousness of the New Party and the Parents’ s Democratic Party.
Ke Wenzhe's voting source focuses on young and partial green voters.But as Ke Wenzhe continued to move closer to Blue Camp, for him, he had to lose any money at any time.The rise of Ke Wenzhe was originally full of green camps.After Ke Wenzhe promoted the blue -and -white combination, many people turned out some former reports, which mentioned that in 2015, Ke Wenzhe said when he was in class at the National Taiwan University Medical College, and said, "Three things in life hate three things: mosquito, cockroaches, cockroaches, cockroaches,Kuomintang".Now turning around and hoping to cooperate with the Kuomintang. This approach has accepted Ke Wenzhe, but did Ke Wenzhe's original supporters accept it?
Besides that year, when Ke Wenzhe chose the mayor of Taipei, one of them often mentioned that when he was not politically involved in politics, a Lianwen shooting was occurred in 2010. After Lian Shengwen was sent to the National Taiwan University Hospital, Ke Wenzhe was a treatment.One of the doctors (but what role in the actual role has always been divergent).Later, Ke Wenzhe and Lian Shengwen became opponents in the 2014 Taipei Mayor Election. This past also added a lot of scores to Ke Wenzhe because he was a professional doctor with medical ethics.It is noble sentiment regardless of political stance on the operating table, but regardless of political stance on the political field, it is only the basic principle of lack of politicians.Lan Bai's cooperation is a blessing or a disaster for Ke Wenzhe. It is really difficult to say.
