Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
Although Hong Kong is still hot in summer, Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, has entered the cold season, which means that the summer counterattack launched by Ukraine in early June this year has entered the end.After visiting Washington after Volodymyr ZELENSKY, the New York Times published an article entitled by Zelenezki to reveal the strategic differences of Ukraine and the United States.To regain (now the ruins), Bakhmut, the eastern town, advocated that the United States advocated the concentration of military forces to cut off the Russian army to the north to Crimea's "land bridge" to the north.
The strategic differences in the United States and Ukraine are not the first time.After the Ukraine seized the area of Kherson, the west bank of the Timber River in November last year, the United States has been dissatisfied with the U.S. Army's delay in crossing the river to the east.For a winter, the army came to settle the tight line of defense, causing the stagnation of counterattack at this moment.
Ukraine has previously adhered to Bach Murte for a long time. When the mercenaries consumed with the Wagner Group's mercenaries, US Secretary of Defense Llayd Austin also pointed out that Bachomot's symbolic significance was more strategic and action significance.In today's slow military analysis of Ukraine's counterattack progress, the Ukraine's defense of Bach Murut's loss has a combat experience, leading to a recruits before the counterattack, which can only receive recruits in Western training and counterattack front lines. It is also one of the mainstream opinions.
Zelei Sky this trip to the United States "ask for help", although Joe Biden officially announced a new round of military aid worth $ 315 million ($ 431 million), and the media also widely quotedAccording to US officials, Waiden has agreed to output to Ukraine to launch on the Himas multi -tube rocket launcher (HIMARS), up to 300 kilometers, and excellent speed of ATACMS ground -to -ground missiles, but Washington's aid for Ukraine can be maintained.The prospect of the haze is full: Not only did Bayeng's US $ 24 billion of the US $ 24 billion in August Federation have not been approved by Congress. Under the conflict of budget conflicts within the Republican Party of the House of Representatives, it was only worth 300 million US dollars in conventional aid.There is also the possibility of being built.Biden himself also showed that Washington continued to support Ukraine to rely on Congress decisions.
The doubts about the American politics (especially in the Republican Party), Zelei fails to propose a specific "victory strategy" when meeting with members of the parliament, but can only explain the situation with its counterattack progress before and after its visit to the United States.Ukraine is good.Around the week before visiting the United States, the Ukraine attacked the Russian Black Sea fleet several times a day, damaged at least three warships, and destroyed a S-400 air defense cannon in Crimea.At the same time, Ukraine also made progress in two town south of Bachs.When meeting with reporters in Huafu, Zelei promised to seize Bachmomt before the end of the year and two cities that he did not make public names.
However, this seemingly chaotic method of medicine is the US worry.However, Zerrenki showed that his march had a "comprehensive plan".
The estimation of the counterattack interruption for the coming of cold weather, Ukrainian officials who were interviewed by US media at the same time were expressed in unison that Ukraine would continue to offensive in winter, obviously to refute this month that the month is about to leave this month.Mark Milley, chairman of the United States Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Army.
Why Zelei Skyki is still reluctant to obey the counterattack strategy supported by the US military under these anti -winds and try to concentrate a breakthrough.A battle that was almost the same before launching a counterattack?
Fighting with Russia, it seems that it is a crazy behavior.The Russian population is three or four times that of Ukraine. Its combat reserve production has entered a state of war. The government spending nearly one -third is above the national defense. Its tank production capacity is doubled compared to the West (up to 200 annual)The production cost of ammunition is 10 times low, the output is seven times higher (Eshalian officials), and the production of the Iranian suicide drone is locally locally.The latest consensus in the Western military analysis community also shows that Russia has learned lessons from the failure of the war from the beginning of the war, and will no longer be as wrong as the original.
On the other hand, in Ukraine, in addition to economic frustration, the people who are willing to actively follow the army are almost exhausted.Although Ukraine has obvious innovation at the military level such as drones, unmanned boats, and modified missiles, Zelei Sky itself also acknowledged that Ukraine would be defeated without US assistance.When the risk of falling in the West has no room for risk, it is of course stupid to fight with Russia.
When meeting reporters in Washington, Zelei Sky revealed why consumption of war is not the logic behind the crazy behavior.He said that compared to Ukraine's offensive in winter, Vladimir Putin must "suspend" because "he really lost people and the professional army was lost, they died."
Zeelianzki's logic is very simple: the lasting consumption of war is not the resources of the battle between the two parties, but the resource that the two sides are willing to pay for the war.If it is compared with the resources possessed by both sides, Ukraine has defeated first; but if the comparison is the resource that both Russia and Ukraine are willing to pay for the war, Ukraine may not have no chance of winning.
The key is the problem of mobilization: in Ukraine, even if an adult man is unwilling to participate in the army, the referees can be regarded as a glorious task of fighting for the existence of the country;Gambling, so Putin faced the rapid progress of Ukraine's counterattack in September last year, so he had to briefly implement the late local mobilization. After that, he could only rely on "micro -mobility" in remote places, the recruitment of private military companies, and the prisoners' commissioned in prisoners., Improve indirect means such as participating in the army to supplement the loss of combat effectiveness.
Although Russia can quickly build a powerful line of defense and bypass Western sanctions to increase arms production, there is no human support, and this war cannot be played -During the period of Zelenezki, the Ukraine Department of Intelligence Administration of Intelligence AdministrationWhen the director Kyrylo Budanov accepted an exclusive interview with the United States, he emphasized how the Urpical Army consumed a Russian military on the Southern front line and forced the Russia to send the Air Force to fill.
Zelei's battle is a key choice.If he believes that the United States concentrates his military strength to break through that set, he will "be benevolent".In contrast, Ban Pu Jing dare not mobilize anymore and conduct a long -lasting consumption war. The boundary between failure and success in a short period of time is not clear. The success or failure needs to be verified for a long time.Strategic space.
However, under this critical choice, the end of the Russian and Ukraine War has not yet appeared on the horizon.
