Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao
Author: Ni Lexiong
"Fisheries in the Musch, Fisherman's Lyrity" is a known idiom in the world. It also vividly includes the best diplomatic realm from individuals, units to the country in the competitive environment.
"Fisherman" is the best position in the triangle (including multi -angle) game relationship, also known as "happy third party": First, it is relatively safe and can be put out of the other side., The safer it is; the second is that you do n’t need to work hard, you can sit big with the defeat of the battleri.The principle of maximizing its own interests determines the victory and defeat of the battleman.
Therefore, in the international "big triangle" pattern, "fisherman" is the best place for hegemony games.
"Fisherman" role is a hegemony road must pass one stop
Many powers in modern history have become a hegemon, and most of them have experienced and played the role of fishermen. It is a must -have on the road to hegemony.At the end of the 18th century and early 19th century, when the British and French battles entered the climax, Russia first entered the role of fisherman. Due to the motivation of the European continent, Sha Wang decided to stand on the side of the UK and cast a decisive chip., Jointly defeated Napoleon France, Russia has become a big country that divides the British Empire in the "Vienna System".
Subsequently, Britain and Russia began to compete for the world hegemony. This situation pushed Prussia, which was originally safe and operated "self -staying" to the fisherman's position.While Britain and Russia had no time to take care of, Prussia stabbed France again, launched the Panda war in 1870, defeated France and captured the French king Napoleon III.Before Britain and Russia had not returned, the German Empire had hatched from the shells and seriously threatened Britain and Russia.
After the Russo -Japanese War in 1905, Tsarist Russia was weakened, and the status of the German Empire was jumped into a major British competitors. The two countries began a global hegemony marked by the Naval Army Competition, which caused two world wars.Later history proved that the United States, which is fighting in European countries from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, is the real "big fisherman" in the global pattern and becoming a world overlord of the world a hundred years later.
After World War II is also a "history of fisherman rotation".When the United States and the Soviet Union struggled, although China was weak, it was an important weight to balance the United States and the Soviet Union in the "Grand Triangle".China has laid the foundation of modern industrial countries with the help of Soviet and US funds and industrial technology in half a century.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, after 30 years of reform and opening up, China's strength and status jumped into the major American competitors.
Russia crawling out of the ruins of the Soviet Union has lost its dominance status in the past;In June 2019, a reporter asked at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: "In this Sino -US trade war, would Russia stand on China?" Russian President Putin replied: "When a tiger fights in the mountains, he is smartHow to end the monkey watching. "He obviously realized the best position of Russia in triangular games.
Under such an international background, Putin decided to use the cover of China -US conflict to play a "short flat" on the Ukrainian issue.Complete military operations in Ukraine.The discussion of morality is put aside. From the political strategy, Putin's plan to have no problem is that it is almost the modern version of Puchu's Panda War planned by King William I and Prime Minister Bismarck.
Before launching the U -Wars, Putin organized a plan to revive Russia in an orderly manner. Since 1999, for more than 20 years, it has won soldiers with Chechen, Georgia, Syria, and Crimea.In August 2021, the U.S. military withdrew from Afghanistan without chapters and embarrassed, and it also made Putin feel that the United States was declining.Europe's dependence on Russia's energy is also a powerful weight of Putin; coupled with the cover of the Sino -US conflict, it should be not a problem to quickly get Ukraine.
Although Putin consciously countless strategies, they did not expect to hit an unusual opponent.The Ukrainian President Zelei Sky, who is persistent and vowed to coexist with the society, has once again proved that at a critical moment of history, the leader has a decisive role in changing the world process.Its hero is comparable to King Sparta, who is in the battle of hot spring.
Ukraine delays Russia and Chinese replacement
Ruoze Lianski, like the then President of Afghanistan Gani (presumably Putin also predicts this way), when he was closer to the capital, he took his wife, and went straight to the airport to fled.Birds and beasts are scattered.After all, in more than 100 years, it is rare to pile up sandbags in the Presidential Palace, fuck rifles, and the country's coexistence, and some are national leaders who have fled.If Putin can win quickly, it can also cover up the absurd and weak military forces based on the wrong intelligence.
On the occasion of the moment, Zelei Shiji chose to push up and resolutely resist, stabilizing the government and army that is about to scattered, and promoted the western power to quickly help from being aware of it.The quick attempt has delayed the war to this day.Military delay led to changes in the diplomatic pattern. China and Russia have changed their positions again, becoming a "happy third party" with sufficient diplomatic space. Russia forms sharp confrontation with Europe and the United States.The position of the fisherman is reduced to a mussel.Internationally, the ghosts are unpredictable.The ups and downs of the National Games are both artificial and opportunities.
