With deep human capital and better gender equality, the country stands at the forefront of the new and old economy.EssenceIn contrast, India may fall into an unprecedented blind optimism.
In March 1985, the Wall Street Journal gave India's new Prime Minister Rajev Gandhi highly evaluated.In a social editorial entitled Ragov Reagan, the 40 -year -old Gandhi was compared to "another well -known tax cutter" and claimed to be relaxing control and tax reduction in India."Small revolution".
Three months later, on the eve of visiting the United States, Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University, praised him.He wrote in the New York Times: "India is more like an economic miracle that is waiting for happening today. If the miracle is realized, the core figure will be its young prime minister." Bagivati also praised Gandhi's tax reduction rateAnd relax supervision measures.
In the early 1980s, it was a key historical moment. China and India, two global population, and the same per capita income, began to implement economic liberalization and opening up.Both countries have triggered many predictions about "revolution" and "miracles", but when China grows rapidly on the strong basis of human capital development, India does not do enough in this regard.China has become a great economy. It is still predicted that India will become the next economic superpowers, and it is still in the hype.
This difference has a long history.In 1981, the World Bank compared China's 64 -year -old "ultra -high" life expectancy with India's 51 -year -old life span.It pointed out that the Chinese people eat better than the Indian people.In addition, China has almost popularized healthcare, and the proportion of Chinese people, including women, is also higher.
The report of the World Bank emphasizes the attractive achievements of China's Mao Zedong era in terms of gender equality.As Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl Wudunn pointed out in the half -Tianyi book published in 2009, China (especially urban areas) became "one of the best regions of women's growth".The increase in education opportunities and the increase in women's labor participation rates have reduced fertility rate and improved the parenting method.After recognizing China's progress in the development of human capital and women's empowerment, the World Bank has made an unusual bold prediction: China will "greatly improve the living standards within the" generation of one generation ".
The focus of the World Bank's report is not tax cuts or economic liberalization, but a historical facts recently emphasized by the Economist Oded Galor of Brown University: Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, every economy is every economy.Progress (the core is the sustainable growth of productivity) are related to the increase in human capital investment and the increase in women's labor participation rates.
Of course, market liberalization has also greatly promoted the economic growth of China and India.However, China's successful development strategy is based on the two pillars of human capital and gender equality; India is far behind in these two fields.
Even after becoming more market -oriented, China still invests considerable investment in the people of the country. It surpasses India in terms of raising education and sanitation standards to the level of labor teams with international competitiveness.In the World Bank of World Bank, which measures the results of education and hygiene in various countries 0 to 1, the Indian Index is 0.49, which is lower than Nepal and Kenya. China is 0.65.The per capita calculation) Chile and Slovakia are similar.
When China's female labor participation rate dropped from approximately 80%in 1990 to about 62%, India's female labor participation rate in the same period decreased from 32%to about 25%.Especially in urban areas, the violence against women has hindered Indian women to join the labor team.
None of India University ranks among the top 100 in the world
Excellent human capital and higher gender equality, jointly promote the substantial growth of China's full factor productivity (the most comprehensive indicator of resource utilization efficiency).Suppose the productivity of the two economies in 1953 (about their modernization) was equal. By the end of the 1980s, China's productivity was 50%higher than India.Today, China's productivity is almost twice that of India.When 45%of India's workers are still working in the agricultural sector with a very low productivity, China has even developed from a simple labor -intensive manufacturing industry to the leading force in the global automotive market, especially in the field of electric vehicles.
China is also fully prepared for future opportunities.It has seven universities to rank among the top 100 in the world, of which Tsinghua and Peking University are among the top 20.Tsinghua University is regarded as the world's top university in the field of computer science; Peking University is ranked ninth.At the same time, nine Chinese universities ranked among the top 50 in the field of mathematics.In contrast, no Indian university, including the famous Indian Institute of Technology, ranked among the top 100 in the world.
Chinese scientists have made great progress in improving the number and quality of research, especially in the fields of chemistry, engineering and material science, and may soon lead to a leading position in the field of artificial intelligence.Researchers in the Chinese academic and industry circles are quickly creating a large number of high -quality patents.
Since the mid -1980s, India and international observers have been predicted that the autocratic Chinese rabbit will eventually falter, and democratic Indian turtles will win this competition.Some incidents that have happened recently, such as China's rigorous crown disease zero restrictions, rising youth unemployment rates, and the negative impact of clumsy decisions made by the Chinese government to control excessive development of the real estate industry and large technology companies.They all support this view.
But when China stands at the forefront of the new and old economy with its deep human capital and a better gender equality, Indian leaders and their international peers are boasting a ability to obtain historical verification.By shiny digital and physical infrastructure, it crosses the fragile human basis.China has a seemingly feasible path to get rid of the current dilemma; in contrast, India may fall into an underlying blind optimism.
Author Ashoka Mody has worked in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He is now a professor of international policy guest at the School of Public and International Economic Policy of Princeton University.: A people betrayed, independent to today).
English Original: Unlike China, India Cannot Be An Economic Superpower
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
