The current choice of China is mainly based on the overall judgment of "the world has faced a century -old change in a century", and the boundary is drawn on one side of security, risk prevention, and enhanced intervention.This is a staged choice, rather than the constant national policy. If it is determined that China will abandon the market -oriented road, it is too simple and light.
Since the beginning of this year, the status of China's economy is obviously not as expected. The land sales revenue and corporate profits have fallen rapidly about the financial source, and the consumption index has shrunk. The new population has dropped by nearly 20%.%, Large -scale real estate companies and shadow banks are constantly mine.
All these phenomena are indeed alert, but this does not mean that the motivation of China's economy has been lost, or the growth model has been unsustainable, and it is more about the price to be paid to high -quality development and transformation.On the spot, the problem will be resolved, and the comprehensive national strength will continue to improve.
If you want to clarify the ins and outs, you must first see how China has developed over the years.
The Chinese economy has started from reform and opening up more than 40 years ago.The reform and opening up policy comes back to a point, which is a comprehensive marketization, that is, to construct its own market mechanism, and at the same time integrate into the international market.The strategic turnaround requires great wisdom and courage.
At the beginning of reform and opening up, rural areas were implemented to households to release rural productivity.In the industrial field, we adopt the method of returning products to products to create a commodity economic and social form.In 1992, the "socialist market economy system" was formally established. Various production factors that were restrained by controlled control quickly imported the market, and the economy made rapid progress.At the end of 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization, and it was integrated with domestic and foreign countries. The end market was completely opened. The comparative advantages of low cost and efficiency made the "Made in China" well -known worldwide, laying the status of a large manufacturing country in one fell swoop.
At the same time, with the reform of housing commercialization and bank mortgage systems, the two most important production factors of urban land and house purchase capital have flowed into the city, which suddenly stimulated the vitality of the entire economy.Coupled with the common role of population dividends, financial investment, monetary policy continued to increase leverage, etc., GDP (GDP) increased from 1.1 trillion yuan in 2001 (RMB, the same below, about S $ 2 trillion) increased in 2001By the 1222 121 trillion yuan, it became the world's second largest economy.
This is the main line of China's development, and it is also a successful example of the transformation of a high -control economy to the market system.
But the market is just an economic implementation method. It cannot solve all problems. Politics, economy, and cultural traditions are closely related. If the supporting mechanism fails to improve simultaneously, the market mechanism will eventually be distorted.Not to mention the market itself has many flaws.Therefore, on the road of marketization, China has achieved great success, but the problem is gradually accumulating.
The problem of the first time is obviously the quality of development is not high.Due to the late start, in the process of integrating into the international market, the comparative advantages were controlled, China's early industrial layout did not choose, mainly to undertake industries that were eliminated and transferred by developed economies.The common features of these industries are high pollution, high energy consumption and low value -added. China ’s industrial models dominated by low -end manufacturing if they do not upgrade, they will eventually be unsustainable.
The development method is re -shaped time
But squeezing into high -end industries is not a short -term work. Its innate deficiency and external enclosure are difficult obstacles.Regarding the problems of these "reform deep -water areas", the practice of simply replicating the market mechanism has lost its previous results. Therefore, the road of industrial iteration and upgrading that China has dreamed of from the end of the last century is extremely difficult.
After the industrial upgrade is blocked, it is inevitable to seek shortcuts to chase profits. The easiest shortcut is to "get rid of reality and falsehood" and finance. Therefore, it was once formed the most profitable situation in financial and real estate.As a result, the marginal benefits of the physical industry are constantly declining; debt leverage continues to rise; the atmosphere of market speculative hype is strong; the contrast between wealth value -added and labor payments has increased, and the differentiated differentiation of the rich and the poor has increased.And unstable factors.The development method has reached the time to reshape the wrist.
But more people think that the market -oriented reform is not enough to be the root cause of the current problem, and to incorporate political and cultural factors into it.China has a long history, the concept of governance, the core of civilization, and the national character are unique. The collisions between the old and the old system have not been seen in ancient times, and the market -oriented transformation cannot be achieved overnight.If it is completely based on the Western market system, the differences between China and the West can be described as abound.But the difference is not necessarily wrong, but more internal structure or complexity.In the process of marketization, it coincides with the micro -style of financial storms and neoliberalism. The halo of the free market in the "Washington Consensus" has lost. Is it right for a complete marketization?The answer to this question is not so certain, and it is not difficult to understand China as a result.
Therefore, we can find that China's market -oriented reform seems to have stagnant. So far, there are still dual splitting in the urban and rural market. The main body of property rights is different.Compared with the market form, incompetence is abound.
On the one hand, this is indeed because of marketization; on the other hand, it is also the result of China's determination to stimulate its outstanding genes and strive to avoid the internal defects of the traditional market and take the initiative to choose.Therefore, these unsatisfactory phenomena really exist, but there is no need to exaggerate, and it should not be stigmatized.
But how to form effective incentives may be the biggest problem facing the current Chinese market.
The continued decline in productivity, insufficient confidence in entrepreneurs, and unwilling to release residents' consumption potential. They are all dangerous signals in the inner power of the market.No matter what system, it is necessary to stimulate public vitality. Only stable expectations, reasonable returns and fair distribution can inspire market entities to have ideals, willingness to be, and dare to innovate to shape a vigorous development momentum.The reason why market -oriented reform is effective is precisely because of this function.
Of course, the surrounding and targeting of the outside world is also an important reason for the Chinese economy as expected, but the two phases are compared, and the internal cause is more important. In other words, as long as China solves its own internal problems, the economy will returnStrong, it is just around the corner.
China's solution is very targeted, such as "high -quality" development, deleveraging, not frying houses, constructing internal circulation unified large markets, emphasizing technology self -reliance and self -reliance, etc., all based on the "problem -oriented" methodology.Based on the countermeasures proposed by reality.
If these countermeasures can really be implemented, they will change their economic situation.However, as mentioned above, whether the economy is delayed, financially, or other issues that are not as expected, they are spontaneous market choices. Although it is short -term, it is more in line with the nature of market entities.This has caused the economic booster plan that has been implemented from top to bottom, which is disconnected from the actual interests in the implementation process, which has greatly weakened the regulatory effect.This may be the reason why the Chinese government has recently introduced countless policies, but the effect of pulling is Liao Liao.
Continuously strengthening central control will not change
However, the strategy of "de -Chinaization" in developed economies is certain, and the original reform environment and development conditions have no longer exist.Therefore, China has no choice but to achieve "high -quality development".Only sufficient strength and solid foundation can stand invincible and maintain the development process without interruption.Therefore, China continuously strengthens central control, crack down on short -term market behaviors, improves the decision -making orientation of substantial competitiveness and full factor productivity. It will not change.The key to the problem is how to solve the contradiction between the long -term planning of the top -level long -term planning and motivation of the micro -subject. If this contradiction is not good, many ideas may lose their idealism.
Resolve contradictions andIt is not difficult. The simplest thing is to relax the control measures defined as "high -quality development" but slightly urgent control.Recently, the Chinese government has successively canceled the real estate market management policy, which reflects this orientation. There are many areas that can release market vitality by reducing excessive intervention.In other words, the crux of the current problem of China's economy is related to the government's hands.
In fact, in recent years, although the marginal effects of market -oriented reform have declined, the room for reform is still huge, and even the highly criticized real estate industry has not reached the end.China's urbanization is still in the process. The demand for urban renewal and transformation is huge, and the reform of the rural property rights system is not in place. It is the blue ocean of the real estate industry.As long as the priority of security and development is slightly adjusted, and the old road to market -oriented reform is appropriately returned, you can quickly recover the current economic downturn.Just before the real crisis arrives, such adjustments will not be easily made.
From the mid -term, there is no need to be pessimistic.In the first 40 years, China did not know how to promote marketization, but in the past 10 years, it has created a new type of national system model and exploring a more ideal combination of centralized systems and market economies.Now it seems that this model has begun to be prototype, and in the early stage of epidemic control, large -scale manufacturing, aerospace, "card neck" technology, etc., it has all showed advantages.If the "incentive mechanism in the system" can be improved, and the symbiotic relationship between public assets and private wealth is to give birth to the creativity of the endogenous of the market, the transformation of "Chinese characteristics" into a "consensus" is not impossible.
Intervention and freedom lines are not unchanged
Even though social governance is complicated, the boundary between intervention and freedom is always the most basic logic. The economic models are different. In essence, it is nothing more than the different methods of designated boundaries.When intervention and control, the market's autonomy is small and insufficient incentives. On the contrary, the market is prosperous due to freedom, but it will also breed risks and chaos due to freedom.The centralized system cannot deny the freedom of the market, and the free market cannot be separated from effective intervention.Therefore, this boundary is not static, but it should be determined based on it. It is biased to control, or it is freedom.
China's current choice is mainly based on the overall judgment of "the world has faced a hundred years of unreasonable changes", and the boundary line is drawn on one side of security, risk prevention, and enhanced intervention.This is a phased choice, not the constant national policy. If it is determined that China will abandon the market -oriented road, and even ignore the economic and social sliding towards the depression and weakness. As long as it integrates power, regardless of others, it is too simple and light.
The author is the director of the China Financial Legal Studies Research Association
