Source: Sing Tao Daily
Sing Tao Society
China announced in July to foreign trade data, and imports and exports fell for three consecutive months. The decline further expanded and exceeded market expectations. It highlighted market expectations, and its domestic demand was weak, which affected economic growth in the second half of the year.Although after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, various ministries and commissions have frequently issued policies to stimulate economic policies, but they have not been able to boost confidence. Officials should seriously consider the re -enrollment for the property market instead of small repairs and small supplements.Bald consumption and investment.
Weak domestic demand or cause of shrinkage anxiety
In July, exports fell 14.5%year -on -year, and it was expected that it not only fell 2.1 percentage points from last month, but also hit the largest decline in more than 3 years. As for the import of imports, it fell 12.4%year -on -year, the largest decline in half a year, and the decline expanded by 5.6 last month by 5.6One percentage point.If you carefully analyze the data, there are two points worth noting.First, according to the ultimate destination value of the export, the export scale of the exports of the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Asia, Australia, Australia and Latin America in July has almost fallen the entire online., Singapore and Africa, such as a few countries such as, are recorded.In the first seven months of this year, China's exports to Russia rose 73.4%year-on-year, but they recorded -18.6%, -8.9%and -2%of the exports of the United States, the European Union and Asians.
Second, according to the analysis of export product categories, from labor -intensive products such as clothing, shoes, toys to computers and electronic products, they have recorded negative growth, and only cars are unique.The China Passenger Federation announced yesterday that automobile exports were 310,000 units in July, an increase of 63%year -on -year, and new energy vehicles accounted for 28%of the total exports.The export volume of Chinese cars in the first half of the year reached 2.14 million, surpassing Japan's jumping into the world's first place, and the export area was the largest in Russia. Because Japan, South Korea and EU car companies have reduced their business in Russia after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war. Chinese car companies have taken the opportunity to fill the marketvacuum.
China's total exports have plummeted. Due to the influence of high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in China and the United States, the demand for imported goods has been greatly reduced. The US and European government has tried to promote the disassembly chain. American companies adopt a close -up outsourcing strategy.From Mexico's imported resources and goods, Mexico replaces China as the largest trading partner in the United States; the European Union has adopted a de -risk -going strategy to try to reduce dependence on Chinese goods.
As one of the three -headed carriages in the Chinese economy, exports continue to stall, and the momentum will affect economic growth in the second half of the year.Originally, the official hoped that the domestic demand in the valley to grow steadily, but the import volume continued to shrink sharply, reflecting the weak domestic demand, and it was more likely to cause deflation concerns.With the internal and external needs, the central government must make urgent countermeasures to stabilize foreign trade and domestic demand, so as not to worsen the situation and cause economic recession.
The Central Political Bureau meeting has confirmed the risk of economic downward at the end of last month, proposed a new situation in which the domestic demand, encouraging the private economy, and a major change in the relationship between the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market in a timely manner, and adjusting the general direction of housing strategies.Introduction.Although the National Development and Reform Commission and multiple ministries and commissions have frequently introduced a number of measures, the public has not seen a nest of bee -bee changing and changing large home appliances, and private enterprises have not seen increase in investment expansion.The property market and personal income, but the big move of rescue the property market has never been seen, making citizens a wait -and -see attitude.
At present, the problem of the Chinese property market is too demand. Developers' funds are clamored, causing the capital chain to break and fall into a debt crisis. The public is also worried that the real estate is rotten.To solve this problem, the key is to invent, dare to relieve non -market restrictions on purchase restrictions and price limit orders, allow the public to invest in the property market, release funds, allow developers to return to the cage, make the property prices stabilize, and be the public to be the public.It is found that property prices have risen, and they dare to consume even more under the effect of wealth.
Must be re -enrolled to rescue the property market to boost confidence
However, there are too many buildings in the building, and it is difficult to digest in a short time. China can refer to the practice of Hong Kong's suspension of land in Hong Kong after the Asian financial turmoil. After the market has digested the inventory of seventy -seven eight, after the confidence responded, the new land auction was launched.However, the place to stop selling will affect the income of local governments. It can only rely on the central government to appropriation and urgency, and where the emergency amount can come, the central government can consider the privatization or share of some state -owned enterprises that do not involve strategic value.Let's encourage the development of the private economy.
Former Prime Minister Wen Jiabao once said that in the face of economic difficulties, confidence is more important than gold and currency. In order to boost market consumption and investment confidence, the official should launch bold and decisive measures in time to stop the economic stall.The more strength and resources of the recruitment of the recruitment will be.
