Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
On August 2nd, Russia attacked Ukraine's food port on the Danube River with UAV. Some port facilities, including a barn tower, were damaged.Nearly 40,000 tons will be destroyed to Africa, China and Israel.Since the Russian side withdrawn from the Black Sea Food Agreement on July 17, its long -range attack on Ukraine's grain port has destroyed at least 180,000 tons of grain and 26 port facilities. The 2nd attack was only the continuation of this destruction.
It has always believed that NATO East Expansion is the Vladimir Putin launching the main cause of the war.It is difficult for the tattered country that cannot be operated to pose a threat to Russia anyway in the future as Western tools.In the past two weeks, Russia's continuous attack on Odesa's multiple food ports seems to be confirming this.
The Restrictions on the War of Food in Heihai
Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the Ukrainian Danube Port, which was across the river across the river, such as Reni and Ismel, which were attacked in the past two weeks.It is mainly used for transshipment of minerals, coal, metal and chemicals.After all, the main markets of Ukrainian grains are in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and Ukraine has multiple black sea and Asiaka ports available. There is no need to use the remote Danube River for food exports.
Before the Black Sea Food Agreement was reached in July last year, in the past, more than 90 % of the Black Sea navigation of Ukrainian grain exports was blocked, and people began to put their eyes on the Danube River.Cost benefits, Ukraine's investment is still.
Stepping into this year, even if it has not withdrawn from the Black Sea Food Agreement, Russia has continuously stepped up the inspection of the Black Sea ships that transport Ukraine's grain exports, which led to a great decrease in the black sea grain transportation capacity compared with last year.In March of this year, the average of six ships that could be completed every day was six. By June, the number had fallen to two.People who are responsible for buying Ukrainian grain in the industry told SP Global that Russia would find any excuses to prevent the ships from passing, saying that their inspection seemed to be careful about using the grain vessel as a loan for a loan, and it was carefully carefully, and it was carefully carefully, and they were carefully carefully, and they were careful about the mortgage of loans, and they were careful, and they were carefully.It's not just to see if there is a stealing weapon on the ship.
The high cost of grain exports in Black Sea has led many Ukrainian companies to lose money. Therefore, even if they have to have the risk of cost -effectiveness once the war, the enterprise also vigorously invests capital in the Port of the Danube.Before the war, the transportation volume of the Danube Port Ukraine was less than 500,000 tons per month. To this day, its monthly transportation capacity has reached 2.5 million tons.
The Danube River is also going through the Black Sea
Different from the black sea grain ships with a toner of 40,000 to 50,000 tons, the water level of the Danube can only support the wearing thousands of tons of bargaining ships, so its transportation capacity is far less than the Black Sea.According to the estimation of the International Danube Protection Commission (ICPDR), the transportation potential of the Danube Water in Ukraine is only about 26.95 million tons per year, but since July last year, the export volume of Ukraine's Grain Agreement by the Black Sea has reached 33 million tons.
Although the Ukraine has used everything to increase the transportation capacity of the Danube -including Romania's opposition and the EU's concerns about the Danube Delta's ecological conservation, it digs out the BYSTROYE Canal in Ukraine.— But the gap between the interruption of the black sea grain is difficult to make up for the Danube River.
Even without the recent continuous attack on the Danube Port, Ukraine's Danube Grain Export actually depends on the Black Sea Channel.Since Romania is a NATO country, Russia's blockade of the Black Sea can only be limited to the port of Ukraine.Therefore, most of the so -called Danube River transportation is mostly used in Ukraine to transport food to the port of its land on the land of the Danube, and then send the ship to the CONSTAN Chagang (CONSTAN? A) of Romania (about 1,500 tons per ship).Then transfer to tens of thousands of tons of ships and transport them to all over the world via the Black Sea.
In addition, there are also thousands of tons of thousands of coastal cargo vessels that can directly transport food from the Danube Port in Ukraine without transshipment, but these vessels also have to pass through the Black Sea, and most of its customers are neighboring countries on the east coast of the Mediterranean.There are only a few that are transported to European countries upstream to European countries without passing the Black Sea.
This kind of transportation via the Danube Port has additional transportation costs, such as using the barn pagoda of the Port of Constantan Chagang to the cost of about $ 10 per ton on the large ship.On the other hand, we must send the grains from all over Ukraine to the Danube port at the southern end of Ukraine. There is also difficulty in land transportation. Sometimes it will appear on the lane of the Danube.It is far from the needs of grain exports.
In order to reduce some costs and increase transportation capabilities, after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Agreement, Ukraine encouraged international vessels to directly transport food to the Danube Port, instead of transferring to the Romanian port.The day before the Russian army attacked Ismel, some media found that ships of non -Ukraine drove to Esmel without hiding.Due to the major diplomatic costs directly attacking grain vessels, the Russian port attack on August 2 seems to be aimed at this operation of Ukraine -Russia warned any ships driving to the port of Ukraine by the Black SeaArmy fire is therefore the object of attack.
Although the Russian army's attack on the Danube Port, although the ability to destroy Ukraine's export of food was failed, it greatly increased the cost of shipping companies.The director of the shipping enterprise stated to the New York Times that its grain vessels have been waiting for food at the port for nearly two weeks, and they will pay $ 8,000 daily blockage costs.If the Russian army continues to attack the Danube Port at this moment, Ukraine will inevitably be interrupted regardless of the direct or indirect grain export channels of the Black Sea.This is equivalent to turning Ukraine into a "inland country".
The Heihai Channel is difficult to replace
The trapped Ukraine inland is a fatal blow for agriculture with a 40 % export and 10 % economic output value.Even though the European Union has increased the land transportation capacity of Ukraine to EU countries since last year, the first three menstrual menstruation of Ukraine's western border this year was only 900,000 tons of grain and oil seeds transported to EU countries (this number is close to the whole year last year.Number) —— Compared with Ukraine's 44 million tons of grain that is expected to be exported this year, this can be regarded as 9,000 yuan.
Moreover, whether it is a land or the Danube River, and will be transported to Europe in Europe, it will inevitably catalyze the contradiction between Ukraine and the near -type country -due to the low food price of Ukraine, it has flowed into neighboring countries such as Poland.It caused local farmers to continue to protest the price of their own products.These countries have previously ignored the regulations of the EU's single market to block the border of Ukraine agricultural products unilaterally, and the same situation may appear again in the future.
Although there is a voice inside Europe in recent years, there is a sound that it should make good use of the largest European river in Europe for inland transportation, but under the threat of climate change, the sustainability of the transportation of rivers flowing through 10 European countries hasQuestions.Last summer, droughts appeared in many places in the Danube, and some of the historical traces that were overwhelmed by the water for many years also saw the sun.In the Romanian section with severe drought, some locations have a water level below the minimum of sailing water levels throughout the year.If Ukraine depends on the Danube to transport food to Europe, it can only "listen to the sky".
This shows that even if political issues can be solved, the Danube is not a reliable way for Ukraine's grain exports in the long run.Geographical location has long determined that the Black Sea is the most viable channel for Ukraine, and there is no alternative.
