Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao

Ming Pao Society Review

North Korea's launch of military reconnaissance satellites failed on Wednesday (May 31), and the Rockets fell to South Korea.For more than a year, with the increasing tension of the peninsula, North Korea has repeatedly fired various missiles such as short, medium and long range. Like launching satellites, the carrier tools are rockets.The alert, Japan had warned it before the North Chao Rockets.North Korea claims that a series of test shooting is the threat to the United States and South Korea's joint military exercises and the threats of the three-party alliances of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the vicious cycle of "military exercise-test shooting-deterrence-re-shooting".complex.The US, Japan and South Korea Military Alliances accelerate the formation, and the spearheads are except North Korea, and they are also targeted at China. On the grounds of this threat, North Korea takes the opportunity to improve the ability of nuclear weapons and missiles.The tension situation has been upgraded in turns, and China's surrounding political environment has further deteriorated.

The frequent test of the North Charity has been intensified due to the limits of beauty

Pyongyang claims that, given the "ambition" displayed by the United States and South Korea's military exercises, forcing it to test the satellites to have "the ability to collect information on the enemy's military behavior in real time", and said that "the second time in the short term will be performed as soon as possible in the short term as soon as possible in the short term"Launch" is likely to test the second time during the month.As long as the United States refuses to contact the dialogue and continues to be hostile to Pyongyang, North Korea will not stop the test -shooting game.As the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin said on April 13, the Korean Peninsula "this round of tensions is caused by the situation. The United States recently engaged in military exercises around the peninsula and dispatched strategic weapons. The negative impact brought about it."

Since August last year, the United States and South Korea's joint military exercises have up to four times. Among them, the "Shield of Freedom" in March is up to 11 days. It is the largest joint military exercise in five years.Incurrence and electronic warfare system "(ARES) aircraft, the fifth-generation advanced stealth fighter, the" nuclear strategic bomber "B1-B, B52H and MQ-9" Death "drone, the nuclear power equipped with the Tomahawk cruise missileA large number of top strategic weapons such as aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines show the so -called "Extended Deterrence".The scene of the exercise is set to maintain the background of maintaining public security, restoring administrative agencies, and humanitarian assistance on North Korea's territory after the successful counterattack against North Korea. It is provocative.

Once upon a time, the relationship between the United States and North Korea eased, and Trump and Kim Jong -un also met three times, but the nuclearization of the Peninsula was unhappy.In the context of the United States for pushing Tai and the United States and the game of China and the United States, in recent years, the United States has changed its policy on North Korea, returning to the extreme pressure policy, and intensified. Like the Russian technique before the Russian and Ukraine WarThe sanctions did not intend to talk to the negotiation seriously, so that the risk of wiping guns was risk.The strategic goal of the United States is no longer limited to the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but has other considerations. One is to suffocate the North Korean economic development and change the Pyongyang regime;Japanese relations prevent the realization of economic integration in Northeast Asia.

In recent years, with the conservative domestic politics, Japan ’s defense policy has broken through the constitutional restrictions, from defense to offense, increasing military expenses, and also developed cruise missiles with medium -range attack power. It is planned to deploy by 2026.The diplomacy of China, Russia and North Korea has gradually touched, followed the United States on the Taiwan issue, and threatened to shock down the rockets that North Korea's test shooting.After Yin Xiyue came to power, South Korea also changed the neutral policy of taking the steel line between China and the United States, fell into the United States in an all -round way, and changed the "northern route" of the former Wentai Yin to collect a tough position for Pyongyang.With the support of the United States, South Korea has increased its military expenses significantly, and plans to increase an average of 6.8%per year in the next five years, and threatened to develop nuclear force.

Under the cooperation of Washington, Japan and South Korea's relations quickly heat up, but in essence, Seoul "bowed his head" to Tokyo, and the two sides shook hands and only met the interests of the United States.Last month, the heads of the three countries of the United States, Japan and South Korea gathered at the G7 Hiroshima Summit, and agreed to share deepening cooperation in three sides such as North Korean missile information in real time.However, bilateral relations are still preferred in the three sides, of which the United States and Japan are preferred in the United States, South Korea, South Korea, and South Korea.Yin Xiyue meets the United States, hoping that Korean -American relations can surpass Japan -US relations.

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The Cold War era has or ended, and the upgrade of the Sino -US game and the Russian and Ukraine War are the two major logo incidents.The changes in the situation in the Northeast Asia are mainly due to the intensification of the confrontation between large powers and the trend of campization. In addition to the US -Japanese, Japanese and Korean military alliances, the China -Russia and the Russia and the Russia are also holding heating.Except for Europe, Northeast Asia has become the most intense area of the global arms competition.In this context, the construction of non -nuclearization and peace mechanisms on the Korean Peninsula is expected to pessimistic.

For China, Southeast Asia has basically maintained a balance between the game between China and the United States. After diplomatic efforts, China -EU relations have also improved recently. Instead, Japan and South Korea choose to stand in a team, North Korea also uses its strength, Russian fishermen have benefited, and China challenges geopolitics severe.

DPRK to force Japan and South Korea to return to China to deteriorate

However, the United States strengthens the "three -party alliances" in the United States, Japan and South Korea, and put together the Asian version of the "Little NATO", but South Korea has strong anti -Japanese power, and it is difficult for South Korea to become a treaty allies.Yin Xiyue's pace of diplomatic adjustment is too large and too anxious, or it may cause domestic rebound.Sooner or later, South Korea's public opinion will realize that the "iron triangle" of the United States, Japan and South Korea is a war mode at the cost of sacrificing South Korea. The war will be the first.

Faced with the new bureau of the Northeast Asia, China should make a good strategic layout in advance before minimizing the risks brought by the United States to be enclosed.North Korea's nuclear support has become a fact, forcing it to abandon the nuclear as the same as the American fire.On the one hand, Beijing can assist it in developing the economy and maintaining the stability of the peninsula. On the other hand, use the special relationship with Pyongyang to restrain the United States, Japan and South Korea, and at least make Seoul know what to do on the Taiwan issue.At the same time, it maintains strategic determination in diplomacy, adopts flexible means, and maintains stable economic and trade relations with Japan and South Korea. As long as China, Japan, and South Korea's economy blend in, the reorganization of Japanese and Korean desires is not a short -term work.After all, China is very close and the United States is far away.