Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Liu Yanting

After countless disturbances, the list of presidential candidates in Taiwan in 2024 finally settled.

The first to float on the table is Lai Qingde, the current vice president, registered the Democratic Progressive President's primary election on March 15th, and was officially nominated on April 12 under the same amount of campaign.The party played 2024.Then the party's party chairman and former Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe started campaign after leaving the mayor in 2022, and registered the preliminary election of the party's president on May 10th. It was officially nominated on the 17th and will represent the party's party.Existing.

The Kuomintang, which was staged a "Gongxin Ji" drama.Judging from the polls in early 2023, Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei, is the strongest candidate, but maybe he is worried about the "running" attack on the outside world, and he has not revealed his willingness to run.On March 22, the Kuomintang Central Executive Committee (referred to as Zhong Chang) announced that it would determine the party's presidential candidate in the form of "call".On April 13, Huang Jianting, Secretary -General of the Kuomintang, said that the first stage of the party's integration was very obvious. "It was then the mayor of New Taipei City, Hou Youyi, and his strength was the strongest."

But soon after the founder of Hon Hai Technology Group, Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Technology Group, stated that he intends to fight for the Kuomintang presidential nomination and start the campaign.On May 9th, Huang Jianting revealed that Hou Youyi and Guo Taiming are currently used as the main candidates.On May 17, the Kuomintang was often held, and officially announced that he was called Hou Youyi. Although Guo Taiming congratulated the first time, Guo Ying was obviously angry and repeatedly released the "inside information" through the media.To deceive, etc., it is intended to shape the public opinion situation of Hou Youyi's "victory and not martial arts".

From the results, some Blue Camp supporters are indeed affected and claim that they will "change to Ke Wenzhe" and "abandon Hou Baoke"; there are also some local factions and Guo forces in the Blue Camp.Zhu Lilun and Hou Youyi.This split situation is also reflected in poll data.On May 23, the Taiwan Media Joint News announced the latest polls, showing that Hou Youyi did not have a "nomination market", but fell from 29%at the end of April to 24%.%, The party chairman Ke Wenzhe fell slightly from 23%to 22%.Wang Yeli, a professor at the Political Department of the National Taiwan University, said that the decline in Hou Youyi's polls should be related to Guo Taiming's supporters and some blue camp people are not related to Hou's doubts.

In any case, from the current data, the election has been determined to go to the "three strong Dingli" situation.The outside world not only pays attention to the three -party campaign strategy, but also cares about how Beijing views the cross -strait discussion of the three candidates.In response to the latter problem, there seems to be clues recently.

On May 23, Hou Youyi was confirmed to be recruited and Ke Wenzhe was identified one week after being nominated.The Kuomintang of Wang Shushen, a researcher at the Taiwan Research Institute, should insist on exploring the path of peace on both sides of the strait, and how should Taiwan, a Taiwanese commentator He Tong, through the crossroads of war and peace?Essence

Among them, Wang Shushen proposed two governing routes: "Cai Yingwen" and "Ma Ying -jeou".The opposition between the two sides of the strait and turbulence in the office are significantly contrast. "And Wang Shushen said so to apply the current situation into the aforementioned framework to compare the stable Kuomintang and Hou Youyi with the dangerous Democratic Progressive Party and Lai Qingde.

Under the description of Wang, the DPP promotes the "leaning on the United States and the anti -Chinese conspiracy" route, and is pushing the situation of the Taiwan Strait to the edge of conflict and crisis;Route, hopes to reduce risks.The Democratic Progressive Party opposes a Chinese principle and seek Taiwan independence; the Kuomintang adheres to the 1992 consensus and opposes Taiwan independence.Lai Qingde claims to be "Taiwan independence workers", supports Tsai Ing -wen's "New Country Theory", and has the dark green political color of "Taiwan independence Golden Sun"; Hou Youyi expressed respect for the spirit of the "1992 Consensus", and is willing to communicate and dialogue with an open attitude to promotePeace and prosperity.

However, in reality, what Hou Youyi was most criticized was the most deeply criticized in the 1992 consensus, and he was unwilling to explicitly express his statement. Many deep blue voters satirized their "blue skin and green bones."However, Wang Shu Shen's text did not criticize this, but slowly slowed down his cheeks: "Some observer on the island believe that Hou Youyi will develop his own cross -strait policy discourse in the 1992 consensus framework", "face complicated geopolitical politicsChallenge, Hou Youyi attaches great importance to the peaceful value and stability in cross -strait relations, and will explore feasible paths "and" Hou Youyi's cross -strait policy discussion has not yet been led to it, but it clearly states that Taiwan independence has no legal basis and opposes Taiwan independence. "

From this point of view, Wang Shu Shen's text "criticize Yanghou" is obvious. As for Ke Wenzhe, who is also a member of the "Three Strong Dingli", did not appear in Wang Shu Shen's discussion framework.The "third forces" and the low probability of winning.In short, without the opportunity to become a president's candidate, there is no discussion value.

Coincidentally, how should He Tong's Taiwan pass through the crossroads of war and peace?It is also similar to the tone.Regarding Lai Qingde, He Tong's criticism does not resign. "Tsai Ing -wen has seven years in Taiwan. Cross -strait relations do not maintain the status quo, but have been completely turned."," Over the years, Lai Qingde has been changing people's settings and slogans, from pragmatic Taiwan independence workers to Peace -to -Communities.The slogan will not be the final version of Lai Qingde. "

Hou Youyi, who avoided the consensus of 1992, did not criticize more, but said that he "is trying to create his own narrative and bridge the differences in the party";Former political figures in political elections can be more old -fashioned. "It should be that Xu Houyou can inherit the route of the two and promote cross -strait political dialogue.

As for Ke Wenzhe, He Tong did not talk about it as Wang Shushen, but he also believed that his election may be extremely low. "In the politics of election, votes are the life of politicians.Interest measures, there are fewer forward -looking forward -looking forwards. Taking Ke Wenzhe as an example, the possibility of his victory is very small, but in order to protect the people's party's interests, in order to protect the people's party in the legislature, it can only be chosen to participate.Election to the end. Election to the end means that the blue and white co -break, the result of the division of votes is that the hope of the DPP to remove the DPP may be lost. "

In short, whether it is Wang Shu Shen or He Tong, Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi are used as a positive and negative contrast, and they all think that Ke Wenzhe's chances of winning are not high, so he did not discuss his cross -strait route.The Global Times and the Taiwan Network of the two articles published by two people are official media, which is enough to represent Beijing's comments on the comments on the three candidates: approval, Yanghou, and light Ke.

and this commented on the tone, which can be connected to the recent "war or peace" narrative of fermented, allowing the outside world to further explore the strategy of Taiwan's Taiwan Taiwan.

First of all, Beijing is obviously quite unhappy to see Lai Qingde's victory, and emphasized that Lai Qingde's victory will lead to unstable Taiwan Strait.Therefore, Wang Shushen mentioned in the article that "the current route of the DPP has proven to only push the two sides of the strait to confrontation.It will be a greater crisis and Taiwan independence will eventually be the end of the way. These have become obvious facts. "

He Tong also directly pointed out that "The 2024 election is an election related to the road selection of Taiwan. It is a election that can be changed from murderous and dangerous development to peaceful development.Election of destiny. How can Taiwan choose to pass through the crossroads of war and peace? This is also testing politicians on the island"The wisdom of the Bay people", "less than a year before the 2024 election, Hou Youyi is still Lai Qingde, politicians on the island and all Taiwanese people should think about it. Today's choice will determine the future of Taiwan."

Secondly, even if Hou Youyi's cross -strait discussion has been criticized deeply, it has been satirized by many Kuomintang supporters as "blue skin and green bones", and some mainland netizens are accused, but from the Global Times and the Taiwan Taiwan Network commentationLooking at it, Beijing intends to slow down the cheeks for Hou, and is unwilling to chase the prayer at the point of "avoid talking about the 1992 consensus".Only by opposing Taiwan independence can the peace between the two sides of the strait and the Asia -Pacific region prevent the well -being of Taiwan's compatriots from being abducted by the dark green forces, and to prevent Taiwan from becoming a strategic chess piece for external forces.The Kuomintang can inject more positive positive factors into cross -strait communication. "

From the perspective of this narrative tone, Hou Youyi's cross -strait discussion may not be 100 % in line with Beijing's thoughts, but the latter obviously does not want to shape an election atmosphere of "all enemies", because this is equivalent to proclaiming the political solution of Taiwan's issue and losing hope for losing hope for Taiwan's issue., Will be trapped in Beijing's advancement and retreat.Therefore, in order to maintain the maximum activity space, maintenance, and uniform public opinion atmosphere, Beijing will not make Hou Youyi a "Little DPP", but will use the "war or peace" election tone to bring the relatively radical Lai Qingde and the relatively radical Lai Qingde andThe relatively mild Hou Youyi distinguishes to treat, implying that Hou Youyi won the selection of the Taiwan Strait.

As for Hou Youyi's "Blue Skin Green Bone" controversy, Beijing has already stated that it does not mind, and its role will only affect the election behavior of the internal internal in Taiwan, that is, the "hate emotion" that stimulates Taiwan's deep blue voters and reduce its support for its support.Hou Youyi's willingness to vote.However, many deep blue voters have previously worried that "voting Hou Youyi will lead to the rise of martial arts", which has obviously been rejected by Beijing with discussions; and in fact, from Beijing, he is unwilling to talk about Ke Wenzhe's cross -strait route and avoid giving his voice. Beijing is quite concerned about.Ke Wenzhe will "lack of success and lose more": he can't win the election, and he also disperse the votes of the anti -green camp, which leads to the DPP's ultimate fishermen gaining profit and continuing to govern.

In the final analysis, for Beijing, the worst result of the Taiwan election is to continue to govern by Lai Qingde on behalf of the DPP, and this development will trigger two unfavorable situations: first, let "send hope hopeThe united war of the people in Taiwan will be impacted, and Beijing will face a very unfavorable internal public opinion pattern.Because of the consistent description of Beijing, the DPP's seven -year governance led to the withered of people's livelihood and the fierce fighting of the Taiwan Strait soldiers.The aforementioned publicity will not only be more hustle and bustle of the public opinion within the mainland, but also the so -called narrative of the so -called "hope in the people of Taiwan" will be questioned again, because the victory of Lai Qingde is equivalent to declare that the people of Taiwan would rather choose the risk of war and corruption.Do not want to abandon the DPP.

Secondly, under the fermentation of the vaccine cases, the problem of governance problems, the "war or peace" narrative fermentation, the DPP is still winning, and it will not review its own cross -strait policy.The Indo -Pacific strategic mobilization in the United States has caused Beijing to face a more turbulent cross -strait situation, caught the dilemma of "not moving as it is surrender."Of course, "maintaining the status quo" is not the ultimate goal of Beijing, but the Taiwan issue has launched the whole body, which is related to the Sino -US game, but also involves military security and economic development. How to stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait and not disturb the development process.Two large measures of the problem.In this case, mastering the initiative to be better than "being forced to do", and the step -by -step is also better than "forced premature birth", but Lai Qingde's victory may mean that the next two may come.

Therefore, although Hou Youyi was criticized by the deep blue voters "blue skin and green bones", even many Blue Camp supporters called for "abandoning Hou Baoke". In terms of overall considerations, Beijing will neither cater to the deep blue statement, nor to give Ke Wenzhe politics to politicsThe volume, because as long as the anti -green camp is divided, the result is likely that Lai Qingde wins, allowing the situation to develop in the most unhappy direction in Beijing.Of course, in Beijing, Xu Houyi rely on Ma Ying -jeou's route and bluntly consensus on the 1992 consensus. However, in the context of the DPP that is still strong and more aggressive in Lai Qingde, Beijing is more seductive on Hou Youyi, rather than harsh requirements.