Source: Taiwan Wangbao Society Review
China and the United States have successively announced the first quarter of economic data. Mainland China unexpectedly surrendered a 4.5%of its dazzling results. It mainly recovered in the domestic demand consumer market.The second quarter of foreign investment banks will go to the next level, and it will be estimated to be more than 6%of economic growth this year.The US Department of Commerce announced the first quarter of its economic growth rate of 1.1%, not only for two consecutive seasons, but also far below the market expectations of 2%. The key factor is exactly the opposite of the mainland. Consumer expenditure is exposed and the economic recession has doubts.
Support for domestic demand markets in the mainland
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Mainland, the number of fake tourists in the May 1 consecutive was about 274 million, and the domestic tourism revenue was 148.06 billion yuan (about S $ 28.5 billion), which exceeded the pre -epidemic level in 2019.The big data monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce also pointed out that with the emergence of fake people, the sales of related catering industry also surged, and the sales of key retail and catering companies increased by 21.4%and 15.6%compared with the same period last year.The vitality of the domestic demand market after unblocking is promoting the economic steps.
Compared with the first season of the mainland economy, the US economy is quite bad.According to data from the US Department of Commerce, personal consumption expenditure increased by 6.2%in March, but the growth rate has reached a new low since February 2021.In March, the import of US consumption wealth declined significantly at 19.6%, not only higher than the largest recession of the epidemic in 2020, but also higher than the largest decline in the financial tsunami during the 2008 financial tsunami.The consumption power of the United States is weak and it can be seen.The Consumer Confidence Index in April of the United States Economic and Commercial Bureau fell to 101.3, and continued to write a new low in 9 months.This indicator is mainly aimed at the surveys made by American consumers (or households) to investigate the financial revenue and expenditure, employment status, economic prospects, and consumer psychological status in the next half of the year. It can be seen that American consumer growth is not optimistic.
In other words, when the economic outlook has doubts, consumers believe that the future income may be reduced. The first response is to reduce food and reduce unnecessary expenditure. Under the chain effect, the consumer power will be greatly suppressed.Not to mention, the Feds' High interest rate hike rapidly, and the cost of high credit funds has been greatly pulled. Recently, regional banks have closure incidents, which prompts banks to further tighten credit, which will not help consumption recovery, and increase the possibility of US economic recession.
In the past, the economic forces of China and the United States have been presented.At least in the short term, the situation is clear. If the time is stretched, this trend will be carried out now.As far as the economic aggregate was concerned, when China first joined the WTO in 2001, GDP was only one -tenth of the United States, and by 2022, it had been significantly increased to three -quarters.For more than 20 years, the total economic volume of the mainland has grown by 10 times, and the United States has grown only 1.1 times, and the growth rate is significantly different.
Insufficient consumer confidence in the United States
In the past three years, the epidemic has been raging, and the mainland's economy has been relentlessly hit. It is generally expected that China's economic failure has been revealed, and it is difficult to restore the past high growth trend.But check the actual data, although the economic growth rate of the mainland during the epidemic period is not as good as before, the worst 2020 and 2022 are only 2.7%, but compared with the decline of 0.7%during the same period, the average gap is still as high as 3.4%EssenceThe trend of more than 20 years means that the total economic volume of the mainland surpasses the United States, which is just a matter of time.
Enterprises are the most sensitive to changes in prosperity, especially for multinational companies.The China Development High -level Forum was held in Beijing in March. Apple CEO Cook said a word "very happy to return to China."Although Apple is actively expanded in countries such as India and ASEAN in order to achieve diversified supply chain development, 95%of Apple products such as iPhone, iPad and MAC are still manufactured in the mainland.mainland.
The US government actively creates a non -red supply chain, but Cook has not abandoned the mainland market and continues to bet on the future of the mainland economy.Not only Apple, who is the economy of Oshuba, Tesla founder Musk announced in April that it will increase the investment in mainland China. It will build the second "energy storage super factory" in Shanghai in Shanghai. It is also the potential and economic growth momentum of the mainland consumer market.
The DPP government must face reality pragmatically, Taiwan is trade -oriented, and China and the United States' economy will not only affect Taiwan's exports, but also control Taiwan's overall performance.As an economic painter and guidance, how to find a balance point in the high competition between China and the United States, instead of which side is unilateral.
