Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
The United States is the leader of the world economy.What is the U.S. economic prospect?The Australian Financial Group McGonaguy's recent forecast will decline, and the severity may exceed market expectations. However, when recession occurs, the Fed will not shot the stock market and emphasize that the "Fed Put" era has ended.The Memorandum of the Federal Reserve last month also showed that its high -level decision -making high -level US economy may have a "mild decline" risk. The parties expected to continue to raise interest rates for more than a year may cause the economy to fall into recession.A variety of signs show that the US economy has begun to weaken, and when the presidential election is approaching, the political interference in the economy is greater, and the overall economy is not easy.
The United States is in economic dilemma, and the Bayeng government must take a lot of responsibilities. Regardless of the deserted years brought by the crown disease, its decision -making model has a stimulating effect on the boom, but the posterior power and sequelae are great.According to polls, the biggest disadvantage of Biden is the economy. The main problem is that the Bayeng government has expanded its finances, causing the worst inflation for more than 40 years.Always can't keep up with inflation, and the substantive purchasing power does not increase but decrease.Most economists predict that the US economy may fall into decline this year; even if they can soft landing, the growth rate will also drop to about 1%. Most of the voters complained, not to mention that the Fed may further raise interest rates, which will promote recession capacity.
Bynden is economically self -proud of the "inflation reduction method" and "chip and science law", and believes that this will cause the United States to reconnect industrialization, boost manufacturing, and create more high -paying employment opportunities.This also takes a long time to make results. It can be seen that the near -worry is that the current labor supply is tight, and the inflation pressure is far from dissolving. Such a large subsidy industry, aroused investment boom, and attracting foreign companies to invest in the United States.Requirements have caused enterprises to compete for workers, thereby triggering a new wave of inflation pressure.This is also the consequence of political thinking for economic thinking.
Bayeng government increased its efforts and wanted to pull the manufacturing industry back to the United States. Before seeing the profit, you must try their harm to inflation. The salty inflation in the United States may not be able to drop to 4% in the short term.In the following, the task of restoring the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation is difficult, and it will not be convenient for great interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Bayeng Financial Policy has excessive political considerations internally, and is also popular in politics to the outside world. In particular, it is forced to curb policies in China.Technology restricts exports to the upper layers of exports, and it is now brewing large -scale restrictions on investment in China.All these are all harmful to the performance of American companies and promote inflation pressure.
The President of the European Central Bank Ragard and former US Treasury Secretary Bao Sen recently warned that the geopolitical conflict caused by the opposition of the United States and China may push the inflation rate during a short period of time and make the United States falling into isolation.
From Trump to Biden, the United States has made considerable economic costs based on the political considerations that maintain the US hegemony, for this reason.The United States' high -tech blockade of China has a short -term effect immediately, which can harvest political fruits in China. However, with the current trend of developing technology in mainland China, it is difficult for the United States to prevent China's advancement and surpass.In terms of some "stuck neck" technology, China does need to break through in a short time, but sooner or later will get rid of the United States' blockade. In the process, the United States expands decoupling, not only the globalization has been impacted, the United States ’economic economy is its own economy.It is also affected.Politics restricted the economy another example.
Bynden government often damages the long -term interests of economic and short -term interests for the moment of political convenience. In particular, the weaponization of the US dollar has intensified, and the far -reaching damage caused by it is difficult to estimate.Treasury Minister Ye Lun warned last month that economic sanctions on the United States on Russia and other countries may bring risks to the dominant position of the US dollar in the world because the country that suffered sanctions is actively seeking to replace the dollar currency.
Recently, the trend of "going to the US dollar" around the world has been in the ascendant. More and more countries have decided to abandon the US dollar when bilateral trade, and change to settle in the local currency.This is also a promising approach for the United States to greedy the long -term economic benefits.
Too many political counts, too few pure economic thinking, not only make the Beiden's election re -election, but also cause the US economy to suffer major damage for a short time.
