The Trump administration launched a trade war in China in March 2018 has been five years old.In the past five years, Sino -US relations have undergone subversive changes.The five years of the Sino -US trade war is also the five years of deterioration of Sino -US relations. The "cockpit" in the past has been shattered.If the two countries do not have a war, it has become the most anticipated and most realistic expectations for Sino -US relations.In the past five years, the conflict between the Sino -US system and ideological aspects of the system and ideology of the two countries has ended. The two countries have ended the "post -Cold War era" and opened a new situation in which their respective powers centered and even global.

First, the five -year trade war indicates that the Sino -US economic system cannot be reconciled.Trump, who pays attention to commercial interests, launched a trade war, but he hit the essence of the economic system of China and the United States.Trump's original intention is to use tariffs to put pressure on the specific problems such as industrial subsidies, mandatory technology transfer, and intellectual property protection of foreign trade policies.However, the Chinese government's spirit of struggle with teeth with teeth is not allowed on issues involving industrial policies.Because industrial policy is the magic weapon for the Chinese government to control the economy, and it is also the practice of the national system that is proud of the national system.Under the leadership of the Chinese ruling party, the market economy operating in the form of industrial policy is irrelevant to the market economy under the leadership of American companies.

The negotiations between the two parties have been deadlocked for two years. In 2020, the Chinese side worried that Trump will continue to impose tariffs, adopt a slowdown plan, and reach the first phase of agreement with the United States. In January 2020, China and the United States signed an economic and trade agreement.At this time, Trump also had no time to take care of the trade war. He just wanted to end the scene and show off his performance with a trade agreement to spread his way for the 2020 campaign.This agreement is recognized as unrealistic fantasies because it is out of the basis for China's execution of the agreement.It was proven afterwards that the two countries had no second phase agreement, nor did they go to the execution of the supervision and inspection agreement, and it was left.

Second, the first phase of China and the United States is a piece of paper.Chad, a senior researcher at Peterson Institute of International Economics, can be considered the only scholar who tracks the first phase of China and the United States from beginning to end.In February 2022, according to his statement, it was found that China did not fulfill its agreement after tracking China in the trading agreement.The promise made by the Chinese government is that on the basis of other trade agents, the purchase value of US $ 200 billion is higher than the level of 2017 before the end of 2021.To this end, China should purchase a total of $ 502.4 billion in two years, while China only purchased $ 288.8 billion in products, which is 57%of the commitment.

Third, the Chinese and American trade war fermented the political relations between the two countries.The trade war is only the entanglement of economic benefits, but it is not an economic issue here in China.China's thinking logic must be regarded as the three issues of the United States to China as political issues. The trade war is a means to curb China in the United States.At this time, China killed the United States' role in China in the process of China's reform and opening up.

If the United States wants to curb China, it should not be agreed to allow China to join the WTO. It should let the Soviet Union carry out nuclear surgery blows in China, or even go back to Roosevelt should not be under the pressure of Stalin's opposition.One of the five constants.Is the Americans who are stupid enough to let China develop before they have a comprehensive competition with China?This logic that cannot be confused has become the political correctness of Chinese public opinion."The United States curbs China" has become a big basket for China ’s public opinion and academic interpretation. After any problems are put into this basket, you do n’t need to think and analyze. You only need to repeat this judgment. The Crowd: A Study of the PopularMind) The group in the book is the mass foundation that firmly believes in this speech.

In the United States, the relationship between the two countries that worsen the trade war forced American elites to reflect on Sino -US relations and the path that China is taking.At this time, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China ’s Secret Strates to Replace American SUPERPOWER has spread rapidly with the help of the trade war.The content of the book provides a proper explanation for the occurrence of Sino -US relations. It is pointed out that since the Mao Zedong era in 1949, there has been an ambitious plan, making China surpass the United States as the world overlord.In order to achieve this plan, China must get the help of the United States and Western countries, which is strong in economy, technology and military, and surpass the United States in 2049.

The theoretical basis of "East Rising West"

Chinese diplomats have always denied that China has the idea of replacing the United States in public, but Bai Bangrui quoted in the book that Lin Yifu, a "national teacher" level in China, said about China.In 2012, Lin Yifu proposed that in the next 20 years, China still has the potential to achieve an annual economic growth of about 8%.In May 2022, Lin Yifu said that in the changes in the global territory, the largest loser was the United States.Because China can maintain a potential growth rate of 8%, and can actually achieve 5%to 6%each year.The Chinese population is four times the United States, and one day it will be twice that of the total US economy.The United States will have to maintain a good relationship with China.Lin Yifu's argument is likely to be the theoretical basis of China's "eastward rise and west".

This means that China continues to sing the United States. The United States continues to talk about the threat of replacing the United States in the United States. The public opinion and elite elements of both sides have contributed to the state of China and the United States.Chinese primary school students vowed in school that they would defeat the United States.The younger generation of Chinese did not know that Rockefeller established the Union Hospital in China and became the starting point of modern Chinese medicine; Situ Leiden built Yanjing University; the United States built Tsinghua University with Gengzi;The Chinese government at the time.

In April 2023, the latest polls of the Pedu Research Center of the poll institution showed that more than 80 % of Americans held a negative perception of China, and about 40 % regarded China as enemies rather than competitors.The United States is highly consistent in dealing with China.The House of Representatives objected to the voting results of 0 votes, and through the People's Republic of China, the People's Republic of China was not a developing country law.The extent that the two countries reached hostility were the result of the fermentation of the trade war.

Fourth, Sino -US economic and trade relations are in a selective decoupling state.The Sino -US trade war has opened a decoupling journey of economic and trade relations.From the perspective of the United States, the earliest "Made in China 2025" proposed by China has become a proof that China wants to decompose with the United States.After the outbreak of the trade war, the U.S. tariffs on China and a series of export control measures to China exports to China have led to the reset of the supply chain globally by multinational companies.EssenceThe selective decoupling between China and the United States is inevitable.The current fact is that the status of the two countries in their respective foreign trade has declined, and China is no longer the largest trading partner in the United States.The consequence of this is that China's world factory status is being replaced by many developing countries such as India, Vietnam and Mexico.

restrict the mainland's opposite Taiwan

Fifth, Taiwan's issue has been international.After the former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Perosi visited Taiwan, members of many Western countries and government officials visited Taiwan as the norm. The mainland government was helpless and no longer adopted economic sanctions on related countries.French President Macron's speech in China was immediately "corrected" by the EU statement.EU chief spokesman Marmo said on April 11 that the European Union still resolutely opposed any attempt to use force to break the status quo of the Taiwan Strait.China's military exercises around Taiwan are always "accompanied" by multiple U.S. carrier fleets.The Chinese government has announced the establishment of a banned area in northern Taiwan from April 16th to 18th, and then shrunk from three days to 27 minutes.All this shows that the United States is using the strength of the United States to restrict the actions of Taiwan on Taiwan.

China and the United States believe in strength and strength, and the result of rational thinking is that both sides cannot ask for war.

The trade war leads to the evil of China and the United StatesIt affects the trend of China and the entire Western relations, and also affects China -Russia relations.Can you imagine that there is no deterministic relationship between China and the United States, will China talk about the "unlimited limit" of China -Russia cooperation?In turn, Sino -Russian relations have influenced the subversive changes in the geopolitical changes of geopolitical Sino -US relations and Sino -European relations.It can be said that all of this is a disaster caused by the Sino -US trade war.

The author is a commentator in Shanghai, China