Source: Bloomberg
Author: Gu jinglu
Zhang's surname (transliteration, zhang) farmers who have been in the North China Plain for more than 30 years have been distressed what kind of species will be in the next few months.
The Chinese government gave an answer: planting soybeans.
This population accounts for about one -fifth of the world, and only one -tenth of the arable land is working hard to strengthen food security. Through subsidies, government collection, etc.Senior officials believe that China's dependence on food imports constitutes a national security risk, and soybeans are one of the weakest parts.
"Grain security has become more important," Darin Friedrichs, co -founder and market research director of Chinese agricultural information service provider, said."For basic grains such as corn, wheat, rice, and rice, this has always been important. But now this kind of concern extends more to soybeans."
Although these policies serve the government's goals, the risks brought about to the heads of millions of farmers, including the farmer surnamed Zhang.After listening to the advice of the local agricultural department last year, she planted soybeans on the side of corn, but the herbicides used to kill corn.
The peasant surnamed Zhang said that the planting soybean basically had nothing to do.
But her economic account will not let the government think of soybeans.The impact of the Sino -US trade war, crown disease and the Russian and Ukraine war on the food supply chain means that the government will double their efforts to increase domestic food production.
Today, more than 80%of China ’s soybean consumption relies on imports. These purchases are concentrated in a few countries such as Brazil and the United States.The government said that the self -sufficiency rate of Chinese soybeans has become a shortcoming to ensure the safety of national food.For basic crops such as wheat and rice, China is usually self -sufficient, although wheat imports have been soaring.
Importing is cheaper
This approach in Beijing is not cost -effective from an economic perspective.In order to make the plan work, the government needs to keep the price of soybeans at a relatively high level to motivate farmers to plant, but it should not be too expensive, otherwise the oil -crossed enterprise will not buy rice from local farmers.As of April, imported soybeans are more than 20%cheaper than domestic soybeans.And due to the sluggish demand for soybean producers in China, even if it is processed with cheap imported soybeans, oil -crossed companies can actually make any money.
This means that soybeans that China increased production last year is difficult to find the market.As the output increased by more than 20%in 2022, the price of domestic soybeans fell 15%since the harvest period and remained at a low level.The government attributes this to domestic production higher than expected and demand.
Given that the government's collection and storage work is expected to end in April, future demand may be further declined.
For every hectare of soybeans, the yield of corn is reduced, and more imports are needed.
The average yield of soybeans in China is 130 kg, which is far lower than the United States or Brazil. The average yield of corn with the same planting area is 430 kg.The Chinese government is organizing soybean production in different varieties of soybean in different regions, hoping to improve productivity, but to achieve competitiveness, there is still a long way to go.
"Grain Safety Risk"
Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at Beijing Oriental Aig Agricultural Consulting Co., Ltd. said that low yields mean that these soybean seeds are reducing productivity compared to other grain crops.Food safety issues.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture of the United States show that China's corn imports increased by more than doubled to a record level in 2020.At the same time, more and more farmers in high -produced areas are changed from corn to soybeans.
Analysts and traders said that as the new sowing season is about to begin, soybeans are still not attractive in business.
In Heilongjiang Province, farmers Wang Lei (transliteration) decided to double this year to double the area of corn seeds to about 400 acres, which is about 27 hectares.
He said, "I don't consider soybean, because the output is low, the profit is not as good as corn."There is more than one who has such an idea.
Bian Tingting, an analyst at the Steel Network, said that the planting intention of soybeans does not seem good, because the profit is still very low, the demand is very bland, and there is no sign that this situation will improve immediately.The inventory operation stopped, and the price was expected to fall further.
However, China's official plan increased another 10 million mu of soybean planting area in the new year, an increase of 6%over 2022. The goal is to achieve a self -sufficient rate of about 30%by 2032.
