Source: First Finance
Author: Li Xiuzhong
Following the fourth place in GDP across the country, the competition between Guangzhou and Chongqing has reversed again.
On April 28th, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics released the first quarter of economic data in 2023: In the first quarter, Guangzhou's GDP was 696.392 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, S $ 134.5 billion), an increase of 1.8%year -on -year.Compared with the first quarter of GDP of Chongqing's first quarter, GDP was 693.289 billion yuan.
The dispute between the "Fourth City" has been reversed many times
According to statistics, Chongqing's GDP in 2022 was 2912.903 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%over the previous year.According to the preliminary accounting (Guangzhou has not yet released the 2022 statistics of the 2022), in 2022, Guangzhou's GDP was 2883.900 billion yuan, an increase of 1.0%year -on -year; Chongqing surpassed Guangzhou about 29 billion yuan, promoting fourth place.
Just when people speculated that the pattern was initially determined, in the first quarter of 2023, Guangzhou once again overtaken Chongqing, making the competition of the "Fourth City" look confusing again.In the first quarter of 2022, Guangzhou GDP also had 35.3 billion yuan in Chongqing.However, in the first half of 2022 and the first three quarters, Chongqing surpassed Guangzhou and maintained the leading year.
The former dean and researcher of the Chongqing Institute of Economic Research, Yi Xiaoguang, said in an interview with the First Financial Interview that from the long -term perspective, Chongqing's economic aggregate exceeding Guangzhou is a trend. Chongqing's land space is far greater than Guangzhou.However, in terms of output intensity, industrial structure, and industrial system, Chongqing and Guangzhou still have a gap.
The "Fourth City" of Guangzhou and Chongqing fermented in 2019.According to statistics at the time, the gap between Chongqing and Guangzhou in 2019 was only 2.3 billion yuan.In the first half of 2020, Chongqing GDP surpassed Guangzhou, which triggered a heated discussion on the dispute between Yusui's "Fourth City". Since then, the performance of the two places has attracted much attention.
GDP accounts include the process of preliminary accounting, preliminary verification and final verification.Therefore, in the process, the data will vary.According to the statistical yearbook of the two places, First Financial found that in fact, as early as 2017, Chongqing's economic aggregate had surpassed Guangzhou. Since then, the rankings of the two places have reversed many times, showing that the competition between the two sides is stuck.
First Financial sorting out that in the last 10 years, with the large -scale undertaking industrial transfer, Chongqing's economy increased rapidly. By 2016, Chongqing GDP actually approached Guangzhou, and Guangzhou led Chongqing 53.6 billion yuan.In 2017, people were mainly concerned about Chongqing surpassing Tianjin, but according to statistics data, Chongqing had surpassed Guangzhou.
The statistical yearbook data from Guangzhou and Chongqing from 2016 to 2022 showed that in 2017 and 2018, Chongqing surpassed Guangzhou, leading 19.462 billion and 58.636 billion yuan respectively; in 2019, 2020 and 2021, Guangzhou, GuangzhouHe also surpassed Chongqing, which were 23.892 billion, 2.732 billion, and 33.795 billion yuan, respectively.In 2022, Chongqing surpassed Guangzhou again.
The post -epidemic era faces common problems
Although Guangzhou anti -overtime in Chongqing in the first quarter of this year, from the perspective of economic data, the growth rate of Guangzhou GDP increased by only 1.8%, and in the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in Guangzhou decreased by 5.8%year -on -year.
Among them, affected by factors such as insufficient market demand, in the first quarter, Guangzhou's automobile manufacturing industry achieved a value -added value of 12.0%year -on -year; electronic product manufacturing industry decreased by 8.9%year -on -year, which put pressure on the city's industrial growth.
Chongqing also encountered the same problem.Although the added value of industries above designated size in Chongqing in the first quarter, the value added of the city increased by 6.0%year -on -year, an acceleration of 2.8 percentage points over the previous year.However, the automotive and electronic information industry as the pillar industry increased by 2.5%and decreased by 6.6%, respectively.It is the material industry that supports Chongqing's industry in the first quarter.
In the era of the epidemic, behind the ranking, Guangzhou and Chongqing faced the problems of insufficient demand for automotive and electronic information industry in the pillar industries.
Guangzhou and Chongqing are traditional car town.There are leading companies such as GAC and Changan.In the era of fuel vehicles, the rapid development of the automotive industry provided an important driving force for local economic growth. However, in the process of changing the new energy vehicle industry, they all faced great challenges, especially in the face of new vehicles and new automotive city.The impact.
According to the 2022 new energy vehicle industry development inspection report released by the Institute of Firestone Creation Industry Research Institute, in 2022, Chongqing New Energy Vehicle output is 369,000 units, and the output of Guangzhou New Energy Vehicles is 313,700 units. Xi'an, Shenzhen, Changzhou and ChangshaThe output of new energy vehicles was 1.0155 million, 550,000, 340,000 and 312,500.
The high prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry has led to the rapid growth of some new car cities.For example, Xi'an GDP increased by 7.6%year -on -year in the first quarter, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the same period last year.The added value of industries above designated size increased by 11.6%year -on -year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year.Among them, the total output value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 37.5%.
In comparison, Guangzhou and Chongqing's automobile industry is indeed inferior.In the first quarter, the added value of Chongqing's automotive industry increased by 2.5%year-on-year, a 3.3 percentage point from January to February. The driving force for industrial growth in the city's regulations fell from 0.9 percentage points in January to 0.4 percentage points.
Wu Dan, director of the Industrial Division of the Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the automotive industry was affected by the downturn in the early period of sales, reducing production significantly, and at the same time superimposed the base, leading to the decline in the growth rate of the automotive industry.Among them, the manufacturing of automobiles increased by 1.1%year -on -year, and the manufacturing of automobile parts increased by 3.5%.In terms of product output, in the first quarter, Chongqing automobile output was 491,800 units, a year -on -year decrease of 10.6%.
Not only that, in the field of electronic information industry, the output of major products has been greatly reduced.In the first quarter, Chongqing's computer output was 17.9015 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 26.0%; the display of 5.9401 million units, a decrease of 13.8%; smartphones were 18.269 million units, a decrease of 10.7%.
However, while the growth momentum of the two pillars of automobiles and electronics has weakened.As a manufacturing market, there are still multiple emerging growth points in Guangzhou and Chongqing.
The Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics analyzed that the city's industrial production situation accelerated and improved in March, and the industrial added value of the industry increased by 4.5%year -on -year.In some production areas, the growth point of the new energy vehicle industry has continued to increase, and the industrial output value and output increased by 71.1%and 88.9%year -on -year; the output of charging piles increased by 1.9 times year -on -year, and the industrial layout has steadily advanced.Some new -generation information technology products have a good growth, and service robots, industrial robots, and monitors have increased by 27.2%, 14.3%, and 14.0%year -on -year.
Benefiting from the growth of infrastructure construction investment, Chongqing's metallurgy, chemical, and building materials industries have continued to volume, and the material industry has grown rapidly.In the first quarter, the added value of the city's material industry increased by 15.2%year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4 and 11.3 percentage points from January to February and last year.
It is particularly noteworthy that the consumer goods industry in Guangzhou and Chongqing has risen rapidly.In the first quarter, the added value of the consumer goods industry in Chongqing increased by 9.9%year -on -year, and the industrial growth of the industry increased by 1.8 percentage points.The recovery of the consumer market has also led to the accelerated recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry in Guangzhou. The value -added value of food manufacturing, alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing industries increased by 8.2%and 20.4%year -on -year.
