When French President Macron was recently interviewed on a special visit to China, he threw out "Europe should seek strategic autonomy" again, so as not to become the "vassal" of the United States and China.The third pole 'power. "He then emphasized the independence of European strategy when he visited the Netherlands," becoming an ally does not mean becoming a vassal "" does not mean that we have no right to think independently. "

The EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy is not new. In 2016, the "global strategic documents" of EU diplomatic and security policies have been called out; Macron proposed that "European strategy autonomy" is not only once.The European Union also proposed the establishment of a new organization "European Political Community".

In the big change of the Russian and Ukraine War and the competition between China and the United States, Macron reiterated the European strategy autonomy after visiting China, although the original intention refers to "Europe does not want to fall into the confrontation between different camps, neither follow the United States nor follows, nor follows"China" still stirred a thousand waves, causing debates and controversy in the West.There are four main reactions:

1. Clear support.On April 11, the President of the European Council Michelle said Macron's position was "not alone" among EU leaders.People who hold this position in the West handle relations with China, and competition and cooperation are roughly four or six.

2. Partial support.On April 18, the Chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin expressed his statement in the European Parliament, calling on the "unique European way"; the senior representative of the EU diplomacy and security policy Berrely emphasized: "We are in the competitive model, but we must continue to follow withChinese dialogue. "People who hold this position in the West handle relations with China, and competition and cooperation are roughly opened in June 4th.

Three, partial opposition.On April 16, the German Finance Minister Lindner said: "Macron called for the establishment of European strategic autonomy too naive." People who hold this position in the West handle relations with China, competition and cooperation are roughly seven or three.

Four, resolute opposition.The Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs Lipstoski said: "The solid cross -Atlantic relations between Europe and the United States are the foundation of our security." Polish President Duda's foreign policy adviser Pu Ridaki said: "We believe in Europe more in the United States ...… Today the United States can guarantee European security than France. "American Senator Rubyo asked Macron" whether it represents Europe. "People who hold this position in the West handle relations with China, and competition and cooperation are roughly nine.

Reading the background of "strategic autonomy"

1. Macron seeks unique historical positioning.He has always been the backbone of European integration and strategic autonomy.In March 2022, after the NATO, the Seventh -way Group (G7), and the EU's "Three -Corporation Summit", it publicly claimed that Europe needs to "reduce dependence on certain allies to have more strategic autonomous capabilities";After the re -election in April, it was more real and firm to implement his unfinished political ambitions.French strikes have not yet subsided so far, showing the courage of a politician.

2. French independent diplomatic tradition.It is very different from the United States, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, etc., and France has long been unwilling to only look at the United States and Malaysia. It is independent of the Fifth Republic's founding President Dai Gogho.In 1966, Dai Gaulle withdrew from NATO.In 2003, Hillar opposed the Second Gulf War without the authorization of the United States.

3. French national interests play a leading role.After Brexit, Germany is an indisputable EU dual engine.During Merkel's administration, Germany's right to speak in Europe and the world is greater. For example, in 2015, the six major powers signed the Iraqi Agreement Agreement were in Germany.After Merkel's retirement, Souls led the fragile three -party ruling league.The European Union has no heads, and the only France, which has the legally owned nuclear weapons, seized the opportunity of 50 years of encounter, trying to enhance control over Europe and the European Union to become a "leader".Macron repeatedly advocates "European strategy autonomy", which is essentially competing for European leadership with the United States, Britain, and Germany.

Four, European interests are not overweight with the interests of the United States.For example, the United States formulates the chip and the scientific bill of inflation reduction bills, and frequently use financial sanctions to weapon the US dollar to interfere with the autonomy of European enterprises, and at the same time damage the sovereignty of European countries.For another example, global climate change is a central issue in Europe. It not only has the high point of the moral system, but also has huge economic benefits, involving a trillion dollars in the carbon trading market.However, the Republican Republican Party has always been keen, and then President Trump directly withdrew from the Paris Agreement. It is difficult for the US Congress to pass the relevant bill.

But in Europe to achieve strategic autonomy, it is difficult to do after all. The reason is as follows:

1. The United States is more willing to control Europe.No matter who is the President of the United States, the subconscious is "the United States first". Trump is particularly alternative. It is narrowly adjacent to neighbors and friends. The allies are unbearable. Macron said that NATO has "brain death".EssenceAfter Biden took office, the primary task was to relieve China's threat to US hegemony, quickly repair the relationship with allies, and unite allies to restrain China.On September 26, 2022, Beixi-1 and Beixi-2 natural gas pipelines were bombarded. Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and the European Union were taboo.

2. European deeper to the United States.Russia launched the Ukrainian war, changed the European geopolitical pattern after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, promoted the unity of the European Union and NATO, and consolidated the status of the United States.Far away.Security threats from Russia became the primary overwhelming considerations in Europe. The long -term neutral Finland and Sweden quickly joined NATO; in 1998, the British and French St. Mallo Declaration built a rapid European response unit.The defense strategy guide was implemented; on January 10, the third joint declaration of NATO -EU cooperation was signed. For the first time, it was recognized that NATO was "the basis of collective defense and security of allies."According to statistics, the economic and trade connection between the United States and Europe and China has significantly cools down, and the total import and export amount has decreased by double digits. The economic and trade connections between the United States and Europe have continued to heat up. In 2022, they replaced China and were the largest trading partners of each other.

Third, there are too many contradictions within the European Union.In the Second Gulf War, the then US Defense Minister Ramsfield proposed the concept of "Old Europe" and "New Europe".Due to historical factors in Central and Eastern Europe, the Russian disease is deeply fixed. The three countries of Poland and the Baltic Sea even suffer from severe "revenge Russian disease". They follow the United States to obtain a safe umbrella to protect the umbrella and oppose the sound of "Europe's strategic autonomy".There are also differences in interests between Western European countries. In September 2021, the United States and Britain, Britain, and Australia joined forces to "stab" behind France, abolished the Australian side of US $ 65 billion (about $ 86.7 billion) to procure the French conventional submarine, and changed to the United StatesNuclear submarine.Even within France, the public's attention to the internal affairs of people's livelihood and economy is much higher than foreign affairs.In addition, the European Union's unified monetary policy and messy fiscal policy, as well as member states have a vote veto of the European Union's foreign policy. It is also two huge institutional obstacles, which makes it difficult for the EU to reach consensus.Essence

Fourth, China -EU relations still have room for rotation.The longitudinal comparison of the US hegemony is relatively weak, and the horizontal comparison still has obvious advantages. The comprehensive national strength of China within 20 years is not enough to replace. The gap between the hard power will be significantly reduced, but it is difficult to change the soft and clever strength.Security and military dependence on the United States, economy and development depend on China, are currently the current status of most countries and national alliances in the world, and there are very few countries that have actively decoupled with China's economy.Germany, France, and the European Union not only declare once, but do not decompose with China, which is in line with the interests of both parties.If China comes out, it will be premature, too much, too fierce, and excellent, but will push the European anti -China voices and push Europe to the embrace of the United States.When will the China -Europe Investment Agreement, which has been "frozen" for two years by the European Parliament, takes effect?

China has successfully adjustedThe Russian and Ukraine War, which is more difficult to mediate the crisis of Xiesha and tried to mediate, will be trusted by Europe, which will be sufficient to exchange the signing of the China -Europe Investment Agreement.The Russian and Ukraine War was dragged for another year and a half to two years, and continued to weaken Russia's strength and tied to Europe in depth. After maintaining the popularity of the Presidential election in November 2024, it was most in line with US interests.

Of course, the interests of Europe have continued to be damaged, and the longer the losses are dragged, the greater the loss of national strength and public opinion.The Presidential election in the United States in 2024 is likely to be the two old rivers and lakes in Biden and Trump. No matter who wins the election, they will start to grab the "Peach Peach". The Ukrainian war is expected to accelerate the end.Therefore, the time window for mediation to China is only about one year.

The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator