The economic globalization of the 1990s has ended, and the competition between the major powers of China and the United States has overwhelmed economic globalization.Safety is placed on the economy as an element, and security elements are embedded in economic globalization.Globalization is not the end, but globalization is decoupled due to security elements. The deepening of the relationship is deepening, and security elements are changing economic globalization.
One of the changes is the increasing attention of multinational companies that attach importance to geopolitics.Economic globalization is the optimal allocation of resources in the world from an economic perspective, and multinational companies are the main forces and promoters of globalization.But now that multinational companies have to face the deterioration of geopolitics.According to the investigation report of Willis Towers Watson (WTW) in March of this year, 93%of the multinational companies reported losses related to political instability in 2022, higher than 35%in 2020.
A few weeks after the invasion of Ukraine in Russia, British Petroleum decided to abandon 19.75%of Russian oil and natural gas giants Russian Petroleum Corporation and two joint ventures in Russia, which means that it must be reduced in the first quarter of 2022Remember more than $ 20 billion (about 26 billion yuan).The German DIY chain Obi Baumarkt sold Russian stores to local employees at a price of 10 euros.Italian United Credit Bank lost $ 1.3 billion, Exxon Mobil lost more than 3 billion US dollars, and HM lost nearly $ 200 million.
Oxford Analysis Co., Ltd. On April 18, the 2023 political risk survey conducted by WTW provided the following data: 68%of companies in 2022 purchased political risk insurance policies to provide war, civil war, coup, government collection and similar unfortunate incidentsInsurance, the ratio is higher than 25%in 2019.Compared with 2022, the fear of geopolitics by multinational enterprises has risen sharply.In the investigation in 2022, 16%of interviewed executives predicting that globalization would be significantly strengthened.In the report in 2023, 48%of people believed that they would go global, and 38%of them thought that going globalization would be strengthened.In 2022, 12%of executive forecasts will be decoupled with China, and 42%of people now predict that they will decimpate with China.
If a multinational company is obtained by the company's geopolitical risks higher than economic interests, it will consider to withdraw its business from a place with high geopolitical risks.This is the case for Apple to transfer business from China to India.Wal -Mart shareholders will vote for risk such as business in China.
The second change, government policies have caused enterprises to decompose with China.The competition in the Sino -U.S. The United States has taken export control measures for Chinese chips and restricting US companies' investment in China, forcing relevant companies to decompose with China.In April 2023, the US company enthusiastically attended the Chinese chip conference, which was very optimistic about the Chinese market. The huge demand for the Chinese market was unable to replace Europe and Japan.However, the Bayeng government implemented the chip bill, forcing the United States, Japan and the Netherlands to decompose with China.
China's display panel industry with an advantageous position will become the next target of sanctions and is attracting attention.
The United States seeks decoupled with China, and China also seek decoupling with the United States in a sensitive field."Made in China 2025" has been regarded by the United States as a proof of decomposing with the United States. The United States has regarded China's "self -reliance and self -reliance", the policy of getting rid of Western technology and "dual -cycle policies", etc., which are equivalent to decuming with the West.China announced a network security survey of Micron Technology Company, a computer memory manufacturer of the United States. The Ministry of Finance of China suspended the business of the Deloitte Beijing Branch for three months and fined it.prove.
Construction does not rely on China's supply chain
The third change, Western countries seek to get rid of the "key supply chain" to China.The Sino -US trade war once made China's rare earth a weapon that may be used to revenge in the United States.The rare earth war did not happen, but Western countries became more and more panicked to rare earths that rely on China, especially Japan.Japan has been restricted by China's sanctions that restrict rare earth exports.13 years have passed, and Japan has developed a clear development of China's rare earth dependence.The Nikkei Chinese website reports that for the first time, Japan has obtained its rights and interests in the "heavy rare earth" in the magnetic car motor, etc.The Japanese Store's double -day and Japanese oil and natural gas metal mineral resource institutions will purchase heavy rare earths of Leinas, Australia.This can meet the needs of about 30 % of Japan.
Japanese residents and friends will build a supply chain that does not rely on China in the rare earth field of pure electric vehicles.Sumitomo -friendly business has always been from the US rare earth company MP material, purchasing the pupae and 镨 required for permanent magnets for pure electric vehicles and wind turbines.The smelting purification has been responsible for being previously responsible for Chinese enterprises.Sumitomo -friendly business sales sell rarity to the smelting enterprises in China. After the smelting is purified, Chinese companies will be exported to Japan, but they will gradually reduce the sales of Chinese enterprises in the future.
Europe and the United States are accelerating the independent production of rare earths for pure electric vehicles and wind turbines.Sweden discovered the largest mine in Europe, with more than 1 million tons of rare earth oxides.IMERYS, a large -scale French mining company, announced last October that lithium mining will be launched in Borwa in central France.It is planned to minimize 34,000 tons each year from 2028, which can meet about 700,000 pure electric vehicles.In order to strengthen the supply chain, the United States Biden government will actively promote the development of strategic materials. Last year, it decided to provide subsidies to fully involved in mining, separation and smelting rare earth in California.
The fourth change, China's economic and trade relations with Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other countries have development prospects.Last year, China -Russia bilateral trade volume reached a record 190.2 billion US dollars, a year -on -year increase of 29.3%. China has ranked the largest major trading partner in Russia for 13 consecutive years.Last year, China ’s expenditure in Russia’ s oil, coal, liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas was US $ 81.3 billion, which was higher than US $ 52.1 billion.China -Russia energy trade strongly supports the Russian economy.
China's energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia has made great progress.Saudi State -owned Petroleum Giant Saudi Arabia spent $ 3.6 billion to invest in Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. to expand downstream business in China.Saudi Arabia also cooperates with China Northern Industrial Corporation and Panjinxincheng Industrial Group to build a comprehensive refinery and a petrochemical plant in Northeast China.The daily processing capacity of the above -mentioned refineries and petrochemical plants is expected to reach 300,000 barrels, and the total investment of the project will reach $ 12.2 billion.The agreement was originally reached during the 2019 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's visit to Beijing.Saudi Arabia CEO said the company will continue to develop downstream assets of large markets such as China.
Deeple of the combination change
Brazilian President Lula visited China and signed a series of memo and agreements with China, worth about $ 10 billion.Lula called for ending the dominant position of the US dollar in the world trade and praised the RMB internationalization.He also advocates using the "BRICS Currency" to replace the US dollar and settle in trade transactions between major emerging market countries.China and Russia have been promoting the US dollar, and Brazil's addition has added strength to the US dollar.But to the US dollar is still utopia at the moment.
Five of changes, economic and trade relations between Western countries are strengthening.Japan and the United States work together to maintain a consistent pace against the economic security policies such as the export control of China's high -end chips.The trade relations between the United States and Europe have also deepened. From January to September last year, German mechanical engineering companies exported to the United States by nearly 20%year -on -year to 18 billion euros (about 26.5 billion yuan).The important reason for the resolution of European energy crisis last year was that the United States provided a large amount of oil and natural gas to Europe.
The above five changes show that the decourse and deepening combination changes have reshaped the economic globalization, and the globalization of security factors is placed into the economic group.Economic groups headed by the United States and Europe and Sino -Russian -led, the globalization of the transformation has opened up the situation of competition in the economy and science and technology.These two opposing groups have continued the heritage of the past globalization, so there are twoIn the intersection of the Greater Group, the World Trade Organization is the best platform for these two groups."Global Southern" is more or less forced to choose the side station, or choose the strategy of both sides of the team.The WTO is also a platform for these two major groups to intersect with the "Southern Global".Globalization continues to evolve, but the world is even more unsafe.
The author is a commentator in Shanghai, China
