Weida: Whose ＂Taiwan Dilemma＂?

From the end of World War II to the first 20 years of this century, it was the problem of trying to dilute and marginalize the entire world. However, the situation in Taiwan has become increasingly tight and has become the core focus of global attention.There are four main causes of the world's hottest attention to the situation in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits: the end of the era of reform and opening up in mainland China, the existence of the name of the Hong Kong and the two systems, the war of Russian President Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine, and China and the United States have entered a full range of confrontation competition.

Some people will ask, isn't the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party's administration of the Taiwan Strait's tension?The author believes that the rotation of normal political parties of democratic politics within Taiwan itself does not have a decisive impact on the Taiwan Strait situation.Moreover, the history of the DPP twice in charge of the Taiwan regime clearly shows that although there is a strong local political color, it has not adopted an excessive reckless independent policy policy.

The reason why Little Taiwan currently leverage the earth is mainly because of the civilization of the big background, the competition of the power of the great power, and the game of the geographical strategy.It is not difficult to notice that the discourse system about Taiwan has now been severely divided into two major orientations: one set of national unity and internal affairs issues, and another set of discussing democracy and freedom and regional security.Even the first set of discourse systems, the mainland and the so -called "unified factions" inside the mainland are different.

Taiwan's small environment has lost

The DPP government currently governed by Taiwan has simply taken off the entanglement of the first discourse system, and instead emphasized the safety of the Taiwan Strait and the values of Taiwan.There are also some "third -party" people in Taiwan, but they are not incomprehensible, that is, to require peace against war. Taiwanese people can live with a well -off life. The Kuomintang also proposes the slogan "Lianmei and Lu Youri".This kind of "peaceful and qi" policy and direction are possible in the period when all parties focus on economic development and globalization, because of the wealth of the Qi.During the eight years of Ma Ying -jeou's main administration, Taiwan basically achieved this state and goal.

But the current objective environment has changed completely. China wants to talk about politics, the United States will talk about competition, Japan hopes to be democratized, and Russia will expand its territory forces.To talk about politics, there must be enemies, competition must have opponents, and democracy must exclude unscrupulous democracy. The expansion of force means that war violence.The fierce evolution of the relationship between the relationship between the great powers has also caused Taiwan to have a small environment that could have a lot of "peace and qi", which was basically lost.

From this perspective, the situation of the Taiwan Strait seems to be very dangerous.But it is not enough to analyze it carefully. The key depends on whether the power comparison and balance around Taiwan's issues are effective.This is obviously different from Ukraine: Before Russia started the war against Ukraine last February, Ukraine was not the frontier of NATO and the European Union and Russia, and it was similar to a gray area.Because of this, Putin and Russia once wanted to enter the wrong one, and had a serious misjudgment, that is, Ukraine believed that Ukraine was unsatisfactory, and it collapsed instantly.Ukrainian military and civilians basically rely on their heroic resistance to fighting, defeated the strategic attempts of Putin and Russia, and won the strong support and sympathy of the mainstream public opinion of the European Union, NATO and the world.

The situation in Taiwan is completely different. The governance and control of Taiwan society has never been affiliated to the current regime of Mainland China. The United States has publicly announced the issuance of troops to protect Taiwan. Japan also said that Taiwan has something to do.In this way, a dynamic balance between the linear lines and strength comparison of the lines of the Taiwan Strait and the comparison of strength was formed.From this perspective, Taiwan is now unprecedentedly safe.

But many people are still difficult to peace of mind.Because the Taiwan Strait is currently in three states: war, peace, and disagreement, but the tension continues, more like a state of war.This actually reflects the real situation of the Taiwan Strait: the hot war is not yet, because the confrontation between the confrontation between the two sides is balanced and balanced;The normal state of the Taiwan Strait period.This has also made the Taiwan Strait situation a regional security predicament.

Who is the problem and impact of this dilemma on?It is not the same as the situation in the Korean Peninsula. The world knows that Taiwan will basically not actively attack the mainland, so Taiwan will win a lot of sympathy and support with small and big.The situation facing the mainland is exactly the opposite. Once the Taiwan Strait has a conflict, it will suffer comprehensive sanctions by the international community, and the western war led by the United States will be fully war.At present, the tension of the Taiwan Strait will also make it difficult for the mainland's outward economic model to continue, that is, it will continue to lose mutual trust, interaction, and trade integration with modern capital, market and scientific and technological progress.

Three directions of nationalist emotions

Some Chinese say that they are not afraid of war with the West, they can engage in internal economic circulation.The so -called internal cycle is not much potential under the current conditions, because China does not have mature and developed domestic market environment and growth mechanism.Why does China's economic development momentum mainly depend on the economy?Because in the outbound economy, at least the half -outside (mainly the United States, the European Union, and Japan) belongs to a mature and developed modern economy, and it is really favorable instead of dealing with it.

From the perspective of the cultivation and venting of nationalist emotions in China, there are currently three main directions: real military power threats to the Taiwan and Taiwan Straits; historical issues and resentment focus on Japan; ideology and social culture mainly fight the United States.The characteristics of the fierce game between the two sides are that the United States is doing a political or cooperative move, and the mainland will definitely make a military or political and economic actions. You come and go, the needle tip to Mai Mang, and the deadlock continues to expand.

The predicament of the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly severe, and because the United States has recently had subtle but important adjustments to Taiwan's policy: the original premise is that as long as the original premise is not martial arts, the United States may achieve no objection to peaceful reunification on both sides of the strait and optimism.However, after a profound lesson in the Hong Kong's "one country, two systems", the United States began to hold skepticism and opposition to the so -called "peace reunification" on both sides of the strait.Hong Kong's transfer return of that year was also carried out peacefully. The world has continued to be glorious about Hong Kong's development prospects, but practice has proved that the peaceful transition of that year could not resist the current plunge. To this end, the United States determined that Taiwan must avoid repeating the same mistakes.The subtle and important changes in the Taiwan policy will have a significant impact on the election of the Taiwan election in 2024.

In this sense, the election of Taiwan in January 2024 is rapidly evolving into a "big country agent" election.The public opinion in Taiwan is still important, but the factors of the game of the great power will also be important.It is expected that the United States will support the Democratic Progressive Party and its presidential candidates, and mainland China will support the Kuomintang to come to power.Voters in Taiwan will face a clear election situation.There may be some third parties trying to take the middle route, but the harsh reality is that Taiwan's future choice has no intermediate zone.The biggest number of consensus conventions for the 2024 election in Taiwan is the "Republic of China" and "Democratic Freedom", and the biggest difference should be the awareness and implementation of mainland policies.That is, the key to cross -strait differences has changed from the dispute between "unity" and "Taiwan independence" to the dispute between "unity" and "division governance".

The author is an expert in international cultural strategy research and consultation in the United States