Source: Voice of the United States
Author: Sun Yun
In 2023, only one -third of the past, but the trend of US -China relations has long been separated from the imagination of observers at the beginning of the year.Since the beginning of February, the bilateral relations have turned sharply, entering the long stalemate period that has neither high -level exchanges nor substantial progress.Although no one can predict how long this stiff period will last, unless the two parties take substantial movements in the near future to change the deadlock, the US -China relations earlier expected to stabilize and return to another extreme.
Since President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Bali Island Summit in Indonesia last November last year, many Chinese observers have begun to expect US -China relations to achieve unseen stability and improvement in 2023.The basis for making this judgment is mainly that the United States and China did not have major domestic political events in 2023, including elections or leaders.Without the interference of domestic politics, US -China relations can at least develop under their original logic and track under relatively normal conditions.In addition, the leaders of the two countries agreed to seek the basic framework of the establishment of bilateral relations during the Bali Island Summit, which made China particularly rejoicing and believed that US -China relations may see the dawn of returning to normal tracks.
Relations after the balloon incident
According to the vision of the Chinese policy community at the beginning of the year, after a series of consultations and designs after the Bali Island Summit, US -China relations should have opened a trip to China Secretary of State Brills in early February, so as to unveil a series of worshipThe prelude to the climbing government members visited China, including the Minister of Finance Yellen and the Minister of Commerce Raymond.The recovered high -level exchanges will restart the working -level dialogue that has been suspended due to various reasons in the past few years, including the exchanges between the United States and China that interrupted the interrupted US and China after Perlus's visit to Taiwan last year.During the 20th National Summit held by India, a direct meeting was created again.
In the previous imagination, the climax of US -China relations this year will come before and after the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Leadership Meeting. This year's Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting will be held in San Francisco. If Xi Jinping attendedWashington has laid the foundation for the successful ending of the United States and China this year and the further development of the future.
However, all expectations stopped abruptly as the balloon incident.The balloon incident directly led to the post -time delay of the trips of the Secretary of State Brillin.It is a series of fierce confrontation that occurred in the US -China relations in mid -to -late February, including China was exposed at the Munich Summit to provide fatal weapons to Russia.It originated from the leakage of the Chinese laboratory, the high -ranking officials of the United States and Taiwan in the suburbs of Washington, and the United States took further sanctions on Chinese companies.During this period, there was almost no positive interaction between the United States and China, and the rest was the only criticism and accusations.
Then Xi Jinping conducted a state visit to Russia in late March, further setting off the suspicion of the United States with key support to China to Russia.A series of charm offensives adopted by China in diplomacy, including the mediation Saudi Iranian peace agreement, invited world leaders to visit China, and also made the United States constantly feel heavy pressure from Chinese diplomacy.
U.S. -China dialogue can no longer talk about
To this day, not only did the leaders of the United States and China not make direct calls, but China ’s trip to China’ s Visa -State Brills ’tour of China has been happy.For China, the positive interaction in US -China relations has not reduced its strategic pressure on China. On the contrary, the competitive strategy of the United States in the United States is still being continuously implemented.Bring a huge challenge to China.Under this situation, the guardrails that the United States wants to establish can not improve China's external environment. Instead, it seems that in Beijing, it only allows the United States to implement the competitive strategy.Although discussing crisis control and conflict prevention between the two major powers of the United States and China are still significant, a series of dialogue that may be possible in the United States and China that previously expected, such as climate change, Finaster and other issues.Can't talk about it.
Frozen three feet is not a day cold.There are many reasons for this situation today.In the past six or seven years, the various government dialogue mechanisms formed by the United States and China for many years have almost no longer existed, resulting in a fixed track after a balloon incident to maintain effective communication, rationally and objectively discussing rationally and objectively.Problems and solutions so that bilateral relations cannot find the path of repair.
Secondly, between competition and cooperation, the "transaction" model that China has always claimed to be compatible with the current dual -track mode of the United States.China has always been accustomed to using cooperation issues to slow down or reduce the pressure and tension of the United States' competitive policy in China.The Chinese traditional practice is almost useless, resulting in no better solutions except for cold treatment in bilateral relations.
Once again, there is still a huge difference in the definition and expectations of bilateral relations between China and the United States, and it is difficult to form a consensus on the ultimate goal of bilateral relations.
In China ’s view, China does not accept the definition of the United States on the US -China strategic competition relationship, but believes that the problem of US -China relations today is entirely because the United States has“ a mistake in China ”.According to this logic, the United States should and must change this error cognition in order to restore normal bilateral communication -and the definition of "normal" implies full longing for the state before 2017.However, for the United States, the past tolerance and contact policies of China have passed like the past. Now no matter what the US -China relations have changed, competition for China is always the main theme.These two different cognitions lead to disconnection between the two sides and it is difficult to form consensus.
Finally, as the foresee of the Chinese expectations earlier this year, when an unrealistic expectation experience, the unrealistic frustration that cannot be pre -predicted in advance, the huge gap will lead to a further decline in bilateral relations.
Under the current circumstances, the United States and China may not see the effective path of getting out of the deadlock.Opportunities do not exist. If there is a willingness to improve the relationship, both parties have enough issues to allow the other party to see their own sincerity.But whether this willingness exists, or whether the two parties are willing to pay enough price to improve the relationship, are more challenging questions.
The author is co -director of the East Asia Project of the American Think Tank Stin Sheng Center.
