As the Russian and Ukraine War entered the stalemate, the Taiwan Strait, another popular discussion area in East Asia, was often compared by international media, and analyzed that once armed conflicts occurred, Taiwan's "Ukraine" may develop or developed out.The possibility of other scripts.It is true that one of the geopolitics on both sides in Eastern Asia in Eastern Europe, the historical context is very different from the current actual situation, but in some aspects, such as the role played by the United States and the European Union, and both parties (Ukraine to Russia,There is a certain degree of strength gap in Taiwan) in Taiwan, but it has a certain degree of similarity.
No one wants the war to explode. The problems that can be solved through diplomatic means are still trying to control the dispute on public opinion and economic war.As on the eve of World War I, European powers did not think that a comprehensive conflict broke out, but historical evidences that sometimes human selfishness and ambitions of human beings will cause the worst situation to happen, and they will never learn from learning forever.
Some lessons are still very vigilant. Seeing that Ukraine was not optimistic from the beginning, the internationally believed that the Russian army would easily disintegrate the Ukraine's defense line like Crimea that year and evolved into a long -term durable war.This is indeed unexpected for Russian President Putin, but according to the current situation, it cannot be rated as a failure.Since the beginning of the war last year, the Western camp united united to fight against Russia, not only sacrificing multiple sanctions, but also providing various assistance in Ukraine, which blocked the progress of the Russian army.Despite this, the Russian economy and finance have not collapsed. Various international trade key products (such as high -tech components or oil and gas, etc.) still import and export through many intermediate countries. Besides, although the Russian army retreated from the Wudong front lineIt is still tenacious, and vowed to include it into the territory.
The situation of the war in Eastern Europe is undoubtedly a very valuable actual reference textbook for the situation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.Compared with Russia, China cannot afford to implement trade embargo in major global countries. With the depth of the globalization of Chinese enterprises today, Chinese overseas Chinese and overseas assets of senior officials are giant.Its economic blow is bound to be devastating.It is true that the level of raising economic and trade sanctions is a means of "hurting the enemy for one thousand and self -damaging 800". The European experience may be the most expensive winter ever, only because of the lack of Russia's natural gas, but the American natural gas merchants have taken advantage of taking advantage of the natural gas merchants.This is a big profit.
China has been a world factory for a long time. In addition to relying on the global supply chain, it is an indisputable fact that the commodity markets of various countries depend on their cheap production capacity.If China suddenly stops exporting business on a large scale, it will be easy to decrease slightly, and it will once again hit the economy of slowly recovering the world after the epidemic.
What about Taiwan?"Taiwan Ukraine" is good for the United States. It can consolidate the Asia -Pacific allies to imitate NATO support Ukraine. It must also shape Taiwan into a democratic fortress in all aspects and let the Communist Army offenders become a fact.It is also an hostile forces invading the democratic camp, but all countries with the core value are democratic constitutional government, and they should unite to resist the enemy.However, even if Taiwan's foreign aid from international public opinion to Europe, America, Japan and South Korea has the upper hand. Once the war starts, the economy will collapse immediately. In addition, the food storage and oil storage will not support it for a month.I may fall into a very unfavorable situation.
However, if Taiwan and Ukraine are really played, the situation will be very different.First of all, Taiwan is an island with a natural waters. The Communist Army can only approach the sea and air. Ukraine has more than 2,000 kilometers of land in Russia, and there are too many breakthroughs in the border.The island terrain will make the role of the naval army more important, and the strength of Taiwan and mainland China are different in this regard, and there will be no disparity as Uh or Russia.This has not considered military assistance provided by the Allies.
However, although Taiwan is easy to defend and difficult to attack, it is not easy to approach. Once the Communist Army lands, the long and long terrain of the Taiwan Island will expose shortcomings and lack of defense depth.If the Russian army launched the first month of the attack, the area of Ukraine's land was twice as large as Taiwan. Therefore, when facing land operations, Taiwan would live in extreme disadvantages.
This is probably why the Tsai Ing -wen government adopted the US suggestion to lengthen the period of the original four -month service obligation to return to one year. Since the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Perosi visited Taiwan, the US Taiwan militaryThe high -level interaction is frequent, and the number of U.S. advisers visiting Taiwan to provide education and training is much more than in previous years.It is not difficult to see that the worst situation is to fight the login battle or even the city and lane war. The more Taiwan has the ability to independent defense. For the United States and Western allies, the more you need to invest in actual strength to avoid your own country.General casualties.Furthermore, the longer you drag, the greater the damage to China. As for the global possible economic crisis and the critical component of the semiconductor industry, it is necessary to count another account.Assuming that the competition between China and the United States has been set by the Chinese government as the main theme of the next 10 years, how to defeat China may really be at all costs.
Of course, there are still many complex factor in war and no war. The international changes in the international and changing political and economic situation and the differences between the military forces on both sides of the strait are just a few of them;There are more difficult things that are difficult to measure, and they will die with conflict.The establishment of human civilization often requires the efforts of several generations in order to achieve a bit of results; but to destroy civilization, as long as there are a few accidents and a slightly large -scale war, all must be re -entered.
I hope that any form of war will not happen.
The author is the United Nations Advisor of the Information Technology Department
