Source: Bloomberg

Author: dong lyu, Jinshan Hong

The tsunami that swept China ’s epidemic is worried that the first new dangerous crown disease will appear for the first time in more than a year.

Due to the unique epidemic prevention policy, China's situation is unique in the world.Almost all other countries in the world have hit the tide of infection to varying degrees and vaccinated with effective MRNA vaccines, and these two things have basically did not do it in China.As a result, this country's great country has low immunity to crown disease, and the wave of epidemic is turbulent.

As the Chinese government no longer releases detailed epidemic data, the expected infection and the number of deaths have surged without official data.Medical experts and political leaders in the United States and other parts of the world are worried that virus mutations will bring a new wave of infection.At the same time, the gene sequencing of the infected people who are used to track virus mutations in the world have decreased significantly.

Daniel Lucey, a researcher at the American Infectious Diseases Society, and the professor of the Gassel Medical Research Institute at the University of Datmouth, said that in the next few days, weeks and months, China will definitely have more Omikon subtypes.It is necessary to know and take action as soon as possible. It is a worry -free new variant. It may be more contagious, more fatal, and can even avoid the drugs, vaccines and detection methods in existing diagnostic methods.

Lucey said that the most precedent for the current time is the Delta mutant strain that appeared in India at the end of 2020. At that time, millions of people were infected in a short period of time, and the fatal strain soon spread to the world.Although it cannot be said that there will be a fierce mutation plant this time, the world must plan ahead of this and prepare vaccines, treatment drugs and other necessary means.

Tracking

Xu Wenbo, director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on December 20 that according to the actual situation of the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to the actual situation of multiple new crown viruses in China, it has formulated the monitoring work plan of the new crown virus mutation strain.Select three cities in the province. Each city selects a whistle hospital. Each outpost hospital adopts 15 outpatient emergency cases, 10 cases of severe illnesses, and specimens of all death cases for genome sequencing and analysis.Upload sequencing data upload the national new coronary virus genome database established by the China Disease Control Center Virus.

He said that through the above -mentioned schemes, the dynamic dynamics of the new crown virus Omircong series of mutant plants in China can be dynamically monitored in real time.

After China basically abandoned large -scale nucleic acid testing and adjusted the guidance of the classification of crown disease death cases, it is difficult for the outside world to figure out the actual infection and death toll of this country.

Two paths

In China, there may be two ways to develop the virus.Omikon and hundreds of subtypes may be spread out as directly as the world's other parts of the world this year. There are several waves of epidemic, and there is no room for growth of other strains.Vaccination and infection will help improve the immunity of the human body until they are immune to the group.

Stuart Turville, a virusist at the University of New South Wales, said that China may be caught up. Now the country's epidemic situation is more like what we have experienced, and our antibodies have matured to cope with the degree of such viruses.

Another possibility is that a new thing is developing, just like the primitive Omir Rongzon strain in southern Africa in the end of 2021, which may pose a new threat to the world.

Turville said that Omikon is everywhere, it evolved in a different way.If it is really this path and it is easier to spread, another airborne operation may occur, and people cannot expect its operating trajectory.

Immunity

In fact, when a new mutant strain appears, the Chinese lack of immunity to the previous virus will be conducive to the spread of new poison strains.Turville said that in most areas around the world, coronal virus has been severely suppressed and has to distort and mutations like Jiu -Jitsu actor to avoid existing antibodies, but the development of the virus in China may be another scene.

Alex Sigal, a virusist in the Institute of Health, a Duban in South Africa, said that the situation in China is different from the public, and the residents of the country do not have a strong immunity for coronal virus.You must not judge that they will be infected more seriously because of more infection.

But on the other hand, Sigal believes that due to lack of higher immune barriers, China may provide opportunities for the evolution of other new mutant plants.If there is a worse situation, it may be a problem.

This is also the most concerned about Turville.

He said that the virus may take another way because it has no pressure and has more mobile space.This may be a huge change, which is completely different from the previous experience.Perhaps the probability of occurring is very low, but this possibility cannot be ruled out. We must prepare for this.

Omikon's invasion of the lower respiratory tract of the human body is less than that of previous generations of strains. Its power lies in the ability of infectious and evasion of existing immune barriers. The combination of these two aspects has closed the door to other mutant plants, including those toxicity may be possible.More.

Low risk

But not everyone is worried about new strains.Stephen Goldstein, a evolutionary virusist in Utah, said that the differences in immune status in China and other parts of the world have made the emerging Omikonia variant unlikely to have a greater communication advantage than existing mutant strains.

I am not particularly worried about virus mutations that may occur in China, he said.I don't think the situation in China will seriously affect other regions. Will there be new viruses born and cause trouble?It is possible, but this is not within my expected range.

Chinese officials also said that even if Omikon continued to mutate, the danger was still far away.

Grasp it

However, the reduction of the gene sequencing of the world's crown disease may mean that a new hazardous mutant strain may escape people's sight radar and spread widely.

This will let us suffer, Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the New Crown Epidemic Affairs Science and Technology of the World Health Organization.We need to pay attention to issues globally.

The scientist said the virus has not yet stabilized to predictable models.We know it will continue to develop.It is wrong to think that the virus can only become a more milder point of view.We certainly hope that it is getting weaker, but no one can pack tickets.