Author: Wang Mingyi
In May 2000, political parties rotated.The Disposure of the Disposure of the Taiwan Federation has advocated constitutional amendments and threatened to delete the text of the country's unity in the regulations on the regulations on cross -strait people's relations.Cai Yingwen, then chairman of the MAC, revealed to the author that she had discouraged the unique legislators and related amendments to the additional thermal provisions.
Li Denghui led the constitutional amendment of the year and formulated an additional amendment. It should be to promote the democratization process and complete the important constitutional reform project of the direct election of the president.The pursuit of national unity is only for the use of negotiating strategies to break through the prerequisite for the CCP.
The Bian government did not move these four words at the end of the 8 years, but the Lee Teng -hui's national unity will be abolished and the national unified program has frozen. A decision on a Chinese meaning was abandoned, and the regulations on both sides of the strait regulations became tighter and tighter.Twenty years later, Tsai Ing -wen is about to start the second term, but the cross -strait issues and the new changes in the United States and China Taiwan will be a more difficult historical moment.
On the eve of Tsai Ing -wen's 520 inauguration speech, the independent group once again proposed to hold a constitutional or constitutional referendum, and to delete the national unity of the regulations on cross -strait regulations. Although these sporadic signals still have a gap in the legal Taiwan independence that constituted substantial significance, these signs have already signs of these signs.Make the extremely disturbing atmosphere on both sides of the strait.
In February 2011, when Tsai Ing -wen was established in the Democratic Progressive Party think tank, he emphasized that handling cross -strait issues must have international strategic thinking.Since the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, the strategic struggle between China and the United States has increased, the economic and trade disputes and military competition have continued to upgrade, and the three sides of the United States, China and Taiwan have complex intercourse.History choice.
Tsai Ing -wen once said that Taiwan should use the international multilateral system as a structure to interact with China. Cross -strait issues should consider the balance between global and regional strategies.From the perspective of international reality, it is not only difficult to practice, but even facing more administrative difficulties.It turns out that if cross -strait political relations cannot be improved, Taiwan is still internally difficult to rely on pro -American and anti -China.
At present, the complex linkage relationship presented by the three parties of the United States, China and Taiwan is the heavy casualties of the United States, the seeking re -election, the quality of the Sino -US relations, the heating of the US -Taiwan relations, the re -office of Tsai Ing -wen, and the PLA's military exercise.In particular, in particular, Trump has shook the pot to remove the pot, or fierce the Taiwan card degradation in China, and also sounded a comprehensive anti -China assembly number.
In the face of the rapid deterioration of Sino -US relations, the upgrade of military competition, and the intensified collision of public opinion on cross -strait sides of the strait, what is Tsai Ing -wen's current strategic thinking?What is the best strategic choice?If the main structure of China -US diplomatic relations remains unchanged, the position of the principles of Yizhong will not be adjusted, what is the biggest space for the upgrading of Taiwan -US relations?Taiwan can only think calmly, and there must be no practical romantic vision.
Taiwan's response to the mainland's military exercises and cultural attacks on Taiwan has been quite paralyzed.However, under unprecedented pressures such as the epidemic crisis and the United States required investigation, responsibility, and claims in the face of unprecedented pressure on the U.S. -Taiwan relations, if a structural breakthrough occurs, or a new conflict between the Sino -US military friction, what is the bottom line and possible response actions in Beijing and the possible response actions.IntersectionBut it may be the key to Taiwan's most ignored or misjudgment.
Professor Liu Guoshen of Xiamen University has recently emphasized that in the next 4 years, cross -strait will not rule out the risk of extreme explosions, but it must also grasp the rhythm and direction of cross -strait relations from a comprehensive and strategic high degree, from a rational perspective, facing the increasing situation of the Taiwan Strait, beautyThere are dynamics and conditions for hedging in Zhongtai.
Tsai Ing -wen has advocated that the two sides of the strait must be maintained and different, and they have the same relationship. On the night of re -election, she also proposed peace, peers, democracy, and dialogue 8 -character motto, and promised not to be provocative or advanced.The cross -strait discussion and strategic judgment of the 520 speech is the historical choice that determines the future development of Taiwan.
