Qiao Xinsheng
When more and more enterprises set up factories in Vietnam and Vietnam achieve rapid economic growth, China must attach great importance to the achievements of Vietnam's reform.On the one hand, it is because Vietnam make full use of the favorable opportunity of the adjustment of the international industrial structure and attract investors from all over the world to set up factories in Vietnam to achieve economic structure transformation.Competitive rival, at the same time, cleverly use China's largest consumer market in the world to develop its own industrial economy.
Most of the world's major multinational companies have set up factories or offices in Vietnam, which marks confidence in multinational companies in the future of Vietnam.In order to achieve its development strategy, Vietnam did not hesitate to abandon the great opportunity to host the Asian Games to alleviate domestic contradictions.This marks Vietnam's broken boat and determined to completely adjust its political and economic structure.
Now Vietnam has formed a four -driving carriage, and Congress has directly elected Guifu.Vietnam's democratic and open policy has made the government ease in responding to domestic social contradictions.On the surface, the Communist Party of China has implemented decentralized balance, but in terms of overall, Yue Yue has formed a tolerance and open governance structure through strengthening the construction of grass -roots regimes.The plan actually accelerates the pace of social and economic development by changing the governance of the country and governing the country.
Vietnam's policy of attracting foreign capital has a distinctive local characteristics, that is, to attract investors from all over the world through the construction of industrial parks.But Vietnam is still a agricultural country with limited domestic market capacity.Therefore, in the process of attracting foreign investment, Vietnam aimed at the Chinese market, and became an export -oriented trading country by developing the US market and achieved leapfrog development.
Vietnam's development manufacturing industry is facing many bottleneck constraints, the most important factor is that there are sufficient engineers.Because basic education is backward, it is very difficult to train a large number of technical workers and engineers in the short term.Therefore, the Vietnamese government is avoided. On the one hand, it uses Chinese technology and funds to set up factories in Vietnam to train a large number of technical workers; on the other hand, use China's consumer market and olive branches extended from the United States to increase exports to the United States, thereby in orderRealize rapid economic transformation in a short time.
The academic community has different views on the economic development plan of Vietnam.One point of view is that there is a huge international risk of Vietnam's extraordinary economic development policy. Once the international financial market or the trade market changes, the Vietnamese economy may face a disaster.But there is also a point of view that Vietnam's economic reform and opening up policy is completely correct.If you rely on the domestic market alone to achieve economic transformation, Vietnam's economic growth rate will gradually slow down, because the income of Vietnam per capita in the short term is unrealistic. Only by participating in international division of labor and actively integrating into the international market can we ensure the rapid economic development of the economy.
Vietnam has a greater pace in participating in international division of labor than India and faster.Vietnam tries to find its own development direction by participating in the division of international industries.However, from the current situation, Vietnam's lack of resources. Although the manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, the profit earned is limited. The main purpose of attracting foreign capital is to cultivate technical workers.Vietnam may use international funds to choose an advantageous industry, and build its own industrial system in the shortest time.
Vietnam's original accumulation is very special.As close to the South China Sea, Vietnam made full use of the funds and technologies of Western countries to minimize oil in the South China Sea region, achieving primitive accumulation.Petroleum and natural gas exports now account for more than 30%of Vietnam's fiscal revenue.If this situation continues, Vietnam may become a country that simply rely on energy exports.Vietnam hopes that with the help of primitive accumulation, it will change from agricultural countries to industrial countries as soon as possible. Therefore, Vietnam has decentralized power and decentralization, reforming the political system, promoting economic development, and striving to become the fastest economic development in Southeast Asia.
What people are worried about now is that more and more companies transfer to Vietnam will adversely affect China's economic development.In fact, Guangdong Province, China, has proposed the policy of switched birds to change birds, which has led a large number of enterprises to transfer factories to Vietnam, which is a good opportunity for Vietnam's economic development.However, the output value of Vietnamese processing enterprises is very limited. The reason why the Vietnamese government introduces foreign investment may be more to solve employment problems and cultivate technical workers.From this perspective, China does not need to worry about Vietnam's competition in China.
China needs to worry about the system reform of Vietnam.Vietnam is working hard in the reform of the system, hoping to completely introduce the political system of Western countries and strengthen the connection with Western countries.As a socialist country, the political system of decentralized balance of western countries will inevitably lead to split phenomena throughout the country.
But so far, the Vietnamese Communist Party has firmly controlled regimes at all levels.This is because Vietnam is a single nation country, and the domestic contradictions in the country are not obvious; on the other hand, because the Communist Party uses external pressure to effectively control the rhythm of reform, and when necessaryImplementing suppression measures has made the political system reform of the Communist Party's leadership without being separated from the normal track.
As the pace of privatization accelerates and the high -level team of Vietnam is expanding, the reform of the political system may lead to Vietnamese to become their own tombs.At present, members of the middle -class families in southern Vietnam have been westernized in terms of ideology or living habits, and the control of the CPIC in the southern region has weakened rapidly.
The biggest problem facing Vietnam is that if capitalism is allowed to develop rapidly on individual basics, the political system of Vietnam will inevitably change tremendous changes.How the Communist Party of Vietnam should play the role of leaders in the transformation of history to avoid tragedies like the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, which is a question that the Vietnamese Communist Party needs to consider.
At least from the current situation, the Vietnamese Communist Party still controls the national authorities such as Congress. Although the challengers have appeared in the direct election, the challenger does not have a climate in Congress.Life is not over.However, if there is serious differentiation in the ideological field and the penetration of Western countries continues, Vietnam may erupt the color revolution.
Vietnam's development path is actually the development path of capitalism.The United States has adopted the use -rejection policy of Vietnam and to pull Vietnam by everything, and it is nothing more than hoping to make trouble for China in the South China Sea.The reason why Vietnam moves closer to the United States is more to control more oil and gas resources in the South China Sea.
This mutual relationship between Vietnam and the United States will not change substantially in the short term.The United States hopes to help Vietnamese young people achieve ideological changes through comprehensive penetration of Vietnam.If one day, young people challenge the Vietnamese Communist Party, and a large number of parliamentarians outside the Congress elections will not be strange, because this is an inevitable result of Vietnam's reform.
Judging from the current situation, the Vietnamese Communist Party adopted some policies and policies, which seemed to make articles around economic development.Starting from the rapid change of Vietnam's economic backwardness, this is completely correct.However, due to the continuous expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor, the phenomenon of corruption of the bureaucratic class is exposed from time to time, and the Communist Party of China will become the object of reform sooner or later.
The leaders of the Vietnam Communist Party seem to be full of confidence in controlling the country, but the reform has its own logic and development laws. Without the public ownership of socialism, the Vietnam Communist Party will be cast aside by the Vietnamese people in the morning and evening.
As people see, because Vietnam implements an export -oriented economic development policy, the economy is easy to rise and fall.Vietnam is becoming a world manufacturing factory, but in order to cultivate more technical workers and form a team of engineers, it is facing very difficult difficulties.This is because Vietnam's basic education is relatively backward. The vast number of rural areas are still in agricultural society. The modernization of a few industrial cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City has contrasts the imbalances in Vietnam's economic development.If the Vietnamese governor does not have the strength to solve the imbalance of economic development, the greater the reform of the reform, the more acute domestic contradictions.The more unstable the party's governing foundation is.
China hopes that Vietnam pursues independence and self -reliance foreign policies.However, in recent years, Vietnam's long -aged and close -attack foreign policy has become increasingly obvious.Vietnam strengthens relations with the United States and Japan, actively join the cross -Pacific partnership agreement, trying to strive for more development space between competition between major powers.But how can the United States a big stick to traditional strategic allies like Japan and South Korea still wave trade protectionism, how can the United States tolerate Vietnam a large number of trade surplus in the United States?
The United States decided to increase punitive tariffs on Vietnam's exports to the United States, which hurt Vietnam.Because the United States has withdrawn from the cross -Pacific partnership agreement, it will not obtain more commercial interests in the region because Vietnam has strengthened military cooperation with the United States and Japan.
The United States is just strengthening its military existence in the South China Sea region, trying to provoke military reserve competitions in the South China Sea.In the case of limited fiscal capabilities, Vietnam has to buy military equipment from the United States and Russia. This is the inevitable result of Vietnam's political strategy of far -cut and near -attack. It is also something that Vietnam is unwilling to see.Where is the reform of Vietnam's democratic politics and economic systems, it is worthy of continuous observation, but it is certain that it is certain that the country's transformation countries must bear the pain of history. This is the case of the Soviet Union that year, the Eastern European country is the same, and the same is true of Vietnam.
The author is the director of the China Human Rights Research Association
Director of the Strait Cross -Strait Research Association
Professor of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
As the pace of privatization accelerates, the expansion of the middle class of Vietnam, and the reform of the political system may lead to the Vietnamese Communist Party to become their own tomb diggers.At present, members of the middle -class family in southern Vietnam have been westernized in terms of ideology or living habits, and the control of the Vietnamese Communist Party in the southern region has weakened rapidly.
