Zhou Yangshan: The four sets of scripts in the 520 sea situation this year

Author: Zhou Yangshan

On May 20, 4 years ago, the Taiwan Strait had high expectations for Cai Yingwen's mainland policies, but the result was that cross -strait relations have fallen into the dilemma of stagnation and retrogression. It has continued to this day and has not seen any improvement.

In 520 this year, cross -strait relations deteriorate further!After the outbreak of the new crown virus epidemic, the consciousness of anti -China and hatred in Taiwan has soared. The people of the mainland advocate the martial arts and the people. The two sides of the strait have fallen into a showdown situation of soldiers. Everyone dare not have any optimistic expectations.But then, what decisions will be made from 521 Mainland People's Congress and the CPPCC and the CPPCC.Will the two sides of the strait start war?Will the Taiwan Strait War burst between China and the United States?Will Taiwan become a new flesh and blood field?Testing the patience and wisdom of cross -strait leaders.

Regarding the development of the situation in the future, due to the large number of people attended by the Mainland People's Congress and the CPPCC meeting, and the meeting period is shortened, it is impossible to discuss it carefully, but it will not be dealt with.According to the current situation, it seems that the possibility of low -key processing and clear statement is the highest, while the specific content has the following four possibilities:

I. Yan Ming sent the hope in Taiwan, but does not give up peaceful unity. If necessary, the Anti -split National Law will be launched to adopt non -peaceful methods and other necessary measures.The Standing Committee of the People's Congress report.This also means that the critical situation in the Taiwan Strait has risen and strengthened the warnings that the war might start at any time.

Second, strictly condemn the DPP government, warn Taiwan independence people not to step on the red line and intentionally create hostile emotions on both sides of the strait, and show that at all costs, they are independent of martial arts.This is to improve the possible level of military committed to Taiwan to warn the Cai government predictable to respond to facing the situation of the war at any time.

3. Link the situation in Taiwan with the relationship between China and the United States. It is clear that the United States supports the split forces of Taiwan independence. It is a major and arduous task and test of China in mainland China in the future.Careful response and comprehensive layout, must not relax at all.This is also the time to eliminate strategy and prepare for long -term operations.

Fourth, declare cross -strait relations will be comprehensively cooling, and economic sanctions will respond to a new situation in Taiwan with their own epidemics, including the cancellation of ECFA cooperation, forced the production place of Taiwan's product signs, restricting Luke to Taiwan for sightseeing, reducing land to Taiwan to learn, etc.The project makes Taiwanese independence people know what to do.

However, the above four possibilities will not have a real warning role for the DPP government. Even if the economic situation of Taiping Jinma worsen, it is even at the expense of the land.Unless the United States and the CCP truly reconcile, cross -strait relations will only continue to deteriorate, and under the situation of the DPP unique situation, it will gradually show off and go to war.This is an unwilling path, and it is also a choice made by the people of Taiwan through the election.

In other words, the important decisions or major declarations made in the recent two conferences of the mainland are mainly for the people of the mainland, so that they will re -strengthen their confidence in national development and social stability after the epidemic.The established mission will be gradually realized.As for the possibility of the Taiwan Strait War, it depends on the development of Sino -US relations and the development of international general trends.In other words, mainland China will not start the war or choose to go to war immediately, but the warning of crisis control and cross -strait confrontation will continue to strengthen.

(The author is a professor of the National Golden Gate University and the Chinese Cultural University)