01 Viewpoint
On January 15 of this year, China and the United States signed the first phase of trade agreement, allowing the trade war to last two years.However, in order to divert the fact that it is inadequate to respond to new crown pneumonia, the US Trump administration has frequently threatened to punish China, and even scares tariffs while scaring.EssenceThese actions triggered international panic, and the trade war that was worried about the rest of the war was re -war again.However, after China announced in April last week, the next day, Vice Premier Liu He and US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Minister of Finance Steven Mnuchin had recently been in a recent Sino -US tension.The United States issued a statement that the two parties discussed the first phase of the agreement and agreed to make good progress in creating government infrastructure, and agreed that the two countries would perform the agreement commitment on time even under the epidemic.The Chinese statement also pointed out that the efforts to create favorable conditions for the implementation of the agreement and promote positive results.Sino -US trade is constantly flowing, which makes many people feel unable to understand. How should we understand the false truth?
Enlightenment of China's foreign trade data in April
Last Thursday (7th), China Customs announced the data of China Foreign Trade in April.Although the overall foreign trade is still facing considerable challenges, the export data in April did not rise, and the US dollar settlement increased by 3.5%year -on -year, an increase of RMB settlement by 8.2%, significantly higher than the expected decrease of more than 10%.China Foreign Trade exceeded expectations in April. Although it is not too optimistic, it is undoubtedly a very good results in the face of such a serious environment in the face of such a serious environment.
Of course, the export exceptional expectations may not represent China's exports to be optimistic.Many economic comments have proposed concerns, including the trend of export orders PMI, no obvious trend, one month's data cannot represent anything, and the data is lagging behind.Whether Chinese foreign trade can continue to maintain a good stability, it is indeed not a month's data that can be asserted.But there is no doubt that even if China's foreign trade economy is popular in the world, it is still expected to have such a tough force.
The Trump administration still hopes to China
In the case of the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China's foreign trade data is obviously a solo show.In this case, the Trump administration's instability and threat may be that it is not surprising to suppress the Chinese trade environment.But what is really surprising is that, under the condition that China and the United States are full of tension, one day (8th) after the announcement of foreign trade data, Vice Premier Liu He and US trade representative Littichze and Minister of Finance Nuchin's callHowever, it is expected to heat up bilateral tensions.The two parties jointly stated that the first phase of the trade agreement made good progress, and agreed that even if under the epidemic, the two countries expected to perform the agreement commitment on time.
This strange development is that the agreement has been implemented for less than three months from February 14 this year, and the new crown epidemic is mixed in the middle. Does China really fulfill their promises?From the latest foreign trade data in China, we can see that the first four months of this year from China to the United States decreased by 5.9%year -on -year, and the overall decrease of 3.7%from January to March was further deepened. Compared with the non -trade war from January to April 2018,The time decreased by 34.2%.Moreover, some key products mentioned in the first phase of the agreement have not seen an increase in the entrance. For example, the import of imports in April in April of Dadda was 5%year -on -year and crude oil decreased by 10%.
Although the goods exported to the United States at the same time were recorded a lot of declines. In 2020, the record of 18.2%in the first four years of 2020, narrowing the trade surplus by 24%.But overall, China has not been able to increase its imports from the United States in terms of the implementation of the agreement.Of course, the new crown epidemic at the beginning of the year has seriously crack down on the global economy. In addition, the price of crude oil jumps in a decline in a variety of factors, so that the United States is affected by the epidemic and no stock can export.However, under the increasingly serious confrontation between China and the United States, the United States, as President Trump, claimed that no matter any reason, it was difficult to accuse China accusing China that he did not comply with the trade agreement.
However, after Liu He and Littichzer talked, the progress was good, and the agreement was expected to perform on time, which proved that the United States did not really intend to break the trade war with China at this moment. Otherwise, there is no need to cool down.Coupled with Chinese tariffs.It can be estimated that the United States knows that even if the current data has not yet turned, it is hoped that China's strong economic toughness will help the United States' economic recovery in the second half of the year.It can also be said that under the continuous saliva offensive on the surface of Trump and some eagle figures, the United States did not intend to fly the economy at this moment to fight the trade war again, and there are still people behind it how they can do their best to restore the economy.In this case, the tariff war should not break out again in the short term.
