Wang Wei Wen: Will China and the United States tear the first phase of the agreement?

Early double celebration

Wang Wei Wen

In January of this year, the first phase of trade agreements that were signed by the vulnerable trucks this year brought a stable role in the bumpy economic and trade relations between the two countries last year.However, the good times are not long. With the global popularity of crown diseases, China and the United States have launched offensive and defensive in many fields. The first phase of the protocol has also become the latest arena. In the past two weeks, various news that may be changed frequently, making the sluggish global economy.Move haze.

US President Trump first threw a variable that reworked the Sino -US trade war. On the day of May, he reported a retaliatory tariff on China to punish China on the outbreak of the epidemic.Two days later, at a Video Conference in Washington, he described the tariffs to be the ultimate punishment for China.China and the United States have two years of negotiations.

According to the first phase of the agreement, China promised to purchase US $ 200 billion (about S $ 283.3 billion) of US goods and services this year and next, in exchange for the United States no longer raising tariffs.According to Bloomberg, the uncertainty and economic weakness caused by the epidemic may affect China's ability to fulfill the promise of the first phase of the agreement.In the first four months of this year, the goods imported from the United States in the first four months decreased by 5.9 % compared with the same period last year, and the progress required to purchase a target of $ 76.7 billion in this year.

Trump also announced on Wednesday (6th) that he will report whether China has fulfilled the commitment of China's first phase of the agreement within one or two weeks.

As the global breath is waiting for Trump to tear the first phase of the agreement, the three main heroes of China and the United States Mdash; MDASH; MDASH; Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Littichizer, US Treasury Secretary MnuchinLast Friday, the plan to call again was two months earlier than the agreed.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the two parties stated that the macroeconomic and public health cooperation should be strengthened, striving to create a favorable atmosphere and conditions for the implementation of the first stage agreement, and agree to maintain communication and coordination.

Last Friday, Trump's tough attitude also seemed to be softened. He said in an interview that he was tangled with the end of the first stage of the agreement.However, he continued to put pressure on China for a long time, which also made Chinese eagle people unable to hold back.

The Chinese official media ring Times quoted sources close to the Chinese government on Monday that the United States has continued to attack China recently, causing the anger like a tsunami of Chinese trade insiders.Some strategists have suggested to the delegation of trade negotiations that China should terminate the first phase of the agreement and restart negotiations. They believe that China has previously made excessive concessions.

Faced with the Chinese Hawk's defense, Trump heard the news on the same day and was not furious. He only expressed his unintentional discussing trade agreement with China, but he still laid suspense for the United States that may take the initiative to tear the agreement.

In China, the eagle sounds have not risen this week.In response to whether China has a plan to re -negotiate the economic and trade agreement with the United States, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian did not confirm at a regular press conference the day before yesterday, but reiterated that the first phase of the agreement was conducive to China, the United States and the world.He responded steadily that China and the United States should adhere to the principles of equality and mutual respect to jointly implement the first phase of the agreement.

Reuters quoted three Chinese sources on Tuesday that although the purchase speed was limited due to crown disease, China was still committed to fulfilling the first phase of agreement and striving to fulfill its commitment to buy American goods and services.Sources said that the possibility of overthrowing the first phase of the agreement and restarting another agreement negotiation is not high.

A Chinese official who is close to the decision -making level said: With the control of the domestic epidemic, China's import procurement pace is gradually accelerating to make up for the lagging progress.The outbreak of the epidemic tests China's purchase demand and also tests the US supply capacity.

China has recently purchased more than 600,000 tons of corn from the United States, and also purchased six ships of American soybeans last Thursday.Some dealers revealed that Chinese importers also purchased at least about 240,000 tons of American soybeans on Monday, which will start transportation in July.

The State Council Customs Customs Committee also announced the day before yesterday that it will be exempted from 79 types of American goods such as rare earth metal ore and gold ore sand next Tuesday for one year.This was interpreted by public opinion to release goodwill to the United States, showing China's positive attitude to further implement the first phase of the agreement.

Overall, since Trump issued a threat to tearing the first phase of the agreement, the attitude of China and the United States has become increasingly softer.Under the dual pressure of epidemic and economic recession, a series of unfavorable factors are placed in front of the two countries.

For Trump, who seemed to be re -elected at the end of the year, the number of unemployed in the United States increased to 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7 %, a record high.Time is no longer here, he can't afford everything from scratch.

At this time, China did not perform the agreement promised to purchase more American agricultural products, and it may also drag Trump's election in the central agricultural state.In the context of the current deterioration of Sino -US relations, it is unrealistic that Trump's wanting to get more benefits from China.

Facing the depression of the external environment, the road to recovery after China's economic epidemic is also full of thorns. When contradictions with the United States in many fields, there is no need to restart the trade war.Furthermore, China ’s performance agreement promises to play a role in stabilizing the world economy in addition to showing the spirit of trustworthiness.Facing the autumn of events around the world, I believe that China and the United States can let go of the impulse to tear the agreement.