From the experience of Hoovers 1930 experience, the reality of being recovered f

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

In April 1930, the US stock market rose 50 % after the bottom of the valley after the collapse. The prosperity spring swallowed that President Hoover was optimistic that the impact of the stock market collapse on the unemployment will pass 60 days later. After two months, a group of people went to the White House.I urged the government to revitalize the economy, but Unexpectedly, Hoover said: Everyone, you have been here for 60 days, and the economic depression has already ended.

Hoover thought that Wuyun, which collapsed at the end of October the previous year, had dispersed, and the overall indicators slipped down. Therefore, there was this optimistic idea. In fact, the prelude to the Great Depression has just been opened, and the economic growth rate in the United States has since fallen into it since then.The four-year decline was -8.5%, -6.4%, -12.9%, and-1.2%from 1930 to 1933.

The reason why Hoover and the staff are overly optimistic is that they did not realize the complexity and severity of the crisis. As the stock market collapsed and wealth shrinks, consumption tightening and corporate losses followed.The Smoot-Hawley Act, which significantly increases tariffs to protect the country's industries. Unexpectedly, this move has caused protectionism. Countries have also made high tariffs on US cargo.The order is -17.9%, -17.3%, -22.5%.In addition, Hoover thought that immigrants could reduce the unemployment rate, and the result was as counterproductive, and the misjudgment of the United States fell into this Great Depression.

Most people are not unfamiliar with the history of the Great Depression on this page. We will laugh at Hoover today without seeing the overall situation. However, we may not be more clever than him. Isn't it the same for US President Trump today?Since Trump took office, the name of the state security and the name of fair trade raised tariffs, and set off a trade war. Isn't it the restoration of the Smoot-Hawley Act?Didn't Trump be forbidden for immigration applications to ensure the work of the great American people a few days ago?

Historian Paul Gandoni once said: The mistakes made by different countries and different countries often have amazing similarities.Look at Trump and Hoover so much. This is not fake. We tested the current economy with the situation of the year. We have to be cautious and not too optimistic.

What is the global prosperity?Most people were pessimistic a month ago, but with the recent rebounding of US stocks, many experts believed that the worst moment had passed. The US stock market Dow Jones index rose to 29 and 219 on February 20 this year., Fell thousands of points in a few days, fell to 18,591 points in March 23, and fell more than 10,000 points in just one month.At 221 points, as many as 30 % from the bottom of the valley a half month ago.

However, is the prosperity going out of the valley so soon?Can the stock market rising represent the economic recovery?In the long run, the two are indeed on the way, but in the short term, the two may not be correspondingly corresponding. Just as the rebound of US stocks in 1930 does not mean that the economy enters the way. Hoover is very confident. Although confidence is important, confidence still has to have confidences.The real economy support, otherwise it will be a bubble after all, this is exactly the case in 1930.Although the government's loose monetary policy can drive the stock market, if the lack of effective demand such as consumption, investment and exports, everything is a dream bubble. Kaine said: You can take a horse to the river, but you may not be able to be able toMake him drink water in the river.Sometimes the horse not only does not drink water, but also spit water. This is the truth.

What is the situation in Taiwan?The trend of Taiwanese stocks is like US stocks. From 11,724 points on February 20 to 8,890 points on March 23, it returned to 11,013 on May 11.Seems to gradually calm down.However, we have to ask whether this wave of stock markets have been picked up with the support of the real economy?Unfortunately, the real economy of the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan so far has continued to get tired, the unemployed population has continued to innovate, the salary has continued to fall, and foreign trade has continued to decline.

Let's take a look at the latest statistics. In terms of export growth, Taiwan-1.3%in April, South Korea -24.3%, the United States exported -9.3%in March, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, all declined.The decline in exports is closer to 50 %.And the top two imported countries in the world, the imports of imports in the United States and the mainland in recent months have reached about 10 %. This information tells that the effective demand of the world is falling rapidly.%, The Americas, Europe, and Asia are spared. From the current statistics, this prediction is really nonsense.

The labor market is even more terrible. The U.S. unemployment population rose to 2.38 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.4%to 14.7%. The highest record after World War II. According to the current first weekly, the numberAfter 10,000 increases, the unemployment rate may rise to 25%in April, tied to the Great Depression in the 1930s.The situation in Taiwan is also the same. The implementation of unpaid leave companies has risen through thousands of houses, and a large number of dismissal has also exceeded 2,000.The General Manager Office is even more bluntly that the impact of the labor market in April will be even more severe.

Observed from the quarterly annual rate (Saar), the first quarter of the United States economic growth of -4.8%, Taiwan -5.91%, South Korea -5.5%, mainland-33.8%, Singapore -10.6%, all set a record since the global financial tsunami, economic growth, economic growthIt refers to the growth of the substantive GDP. The annual increase rate refers to the transition rate of the changes in the substantial GDP and the previous season to reflect the turning point between the economy between the two seasons.This is a serious warning.

The experience of the 1930s told us that the recession was calmed down so fast. Don't see a few spring swallows flying in the face of the sky is approaching. Faced with the confusing situation, the authorities should use the misjudgment of Hoover as a mirror.In the number heap.