Yu Zeyuan: Chinas external challenge

Early

Point

Ji Yan Spring and Autumn

Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy that has been out of the impact of the epidemic has shown a clear recovery scene, and local governments have also issued a strong voice of the economy.Observed people have expected that the Chinese economy is expected to sweep the haze of the three -year epidemic this year and rebound strongly.

But the new round of games caused by the recent sudden "balloon incident" not only gave the fragile Sino -US relations but also a shadow, but also further deteriorated China's external environment.If it is not handled properly, the efforts of China's economy may be disturbed by external challenges.

Around the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rabbit, China's consumption momentum quickly recovered.Since January, the daily interactive company provided by 232 representative business districts provided by the daily interactive company shows that the index has maintained a high level of more than 100 consecutive days, an average increase of 15.5 points from December last year, indicating that offline consumption is offline consumptionThe heat recovers quickly.

At the same time, 29 of the 31 provinces and regions in China have set the target of economic growth this year to about 5%or even higher.All localities have also emphasized to expand investment and accelerate the construction of major projects. The target of fixed asset investment growth targets is concentrated at 6%-12%, which is generally higher than the local economic growth target.

The National People's Congress of China and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (two sessions) will open next month.This year's two sessions are at a time of five years. The State Council, the National People's Congress, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will generate a new leadership team. Li Qiang, Zhao Leji and Wang Huning, who are ranked second to fourth in the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, will take over the State Council Prime Minister and the National People's Congress.The chairman and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference have completed the high -level personnel changes since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October last year.

The rapid development since the reform and opening up of China has relied on economic growth.Against the background of the outbreak and economic recovery, the new Chinese government expected to create a new image of a difference through economic and promoting development.The government work report is expected to be about 5.5%this year's economic growth target.

Although there are still difficulties in China's domestic confidence, systems to obstruct development, etc., the biggest challenges to achieve the goal of economic growth this year are not inside, but outside.

Since February, the "investigation balloon" incident has become a hot spot for the attention of American public opinion, and US Secretary of State Brosky has postponed its visit to China.China and the United States have launched a new round of water war.China emphasizes that this balloon is a civilian balloon used for meteorological research, because the out of control floats over the United States, and the United States insists that the balloon is conducting espionage.

On February 4, the US military dispatched the F-22 fighter to shoot down the balloon.The Chinese Ministry of National Defense refused to communicate with the US Department of Defense and declared that it reserved the right to use similar means to dispose of similar situations.Sino -US relations have been severely frustrated again.

A few days later, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution at 419-0 on February 9th, accusing China of trying to "deceive the world" with civilian balloons, and asked the Bayeng government to take decisive measures to prevent foreign aircraft from trying to try to try to try to try.Collect information over US territory.

"Balloon Incident" is still fermenting.On February 10, the White House in the United States stated that an American fighter shot down a "unknown object" floating in Alaska.The next day, the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau posted that he had ordered a "unknown object" in the northern Airship of Canada.

Although the two "unknown objects" that have been shot down in the United States or Canada have not claimed these two "unknown objects" in China, under the situation of "investigating balloons" in ChinaIt is inevitable that these two "unknown objects" are attributed to China and continue to stir up China's "balloon threat".

On February 10, the US Department of Commerce included six Chinese entities on the trade blacklist, accusing these entities in the development of aerospace technology and equipment including air boats and balloons, and participated in the information collection of the Chinese militaryActivity.Some scholars have pointed out that this sanction is not only to respond to the floating balloon in the United States, but also to increase the scope of the scientific and technological war of China to warn companies in other countries to reduce the connection with Chinese companies.

There are also Chinese scholars that the United States has already developed a strategy to encircle China, but it is not possible to find a reason to deal with China. The balloon incident may provide opportunities for the United States to "lift the table", which may lead to further tension between Sino -US relations, and evenAs a result, the two sides were fully ruptured.China needs to change its strategy appropriately and make strategic preparations for the United States.

At present, the United States does intentionally make the "balloon incident" bigger, and uses this to jointly cooperate with China and the outside world to promote the gradually decoupled with the United States and its allies and China. This trend is obviously to China.It is very unfavorable to fight for the economy.In addition, important American political figures may visit Taiwan at any time, and the United States has continuously increased the military sales of Taiwan, and the possibility of "setting the table" in Sino -US relations does exist.

In addition, although the Russian and Ukraine War, which lasted for nearly a year, partially contained the energy of the United States to pressure China, the war also prompted the Western world to be more united and more voices with a sound.How to reduce the impact of the Russian and Ukraine war on relations between China and Western countries is also a problem that China cannot get rid of it in the future.

After being disturbed by the three -year epidemic, China's economy and society began to return to the right track, but severe external pressures followed.Whether it can properly respond to external challenges and maintain the situation of Sino -US relations without breaking, so that this year's efforts to fight for the economy will not be interfered or even interrupted, which will test the wisdom and ability of China's new leadership.