(Tokyo Composite Electric) Due to the weak Japanese yen, Japan's GDP last year was surpassed by Germany and slipped into the world's fourth largest economy.
The data released by the Japanese government on Thursday (February 15) shows that although the national economy increased by 1.9%last year, GDP calculated in the name of the US dollar was 420 billion US dollars (about 5)S $ 760 billion).According to data released by Germany last month, Germany's GDP in 2023 was $ 45 million.
Economist said that Germany replaced Japan as the third largest economy in the world, not German economic performance better than Japan, mainly because the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell sharply.In fact, the German economy shrinks 0.3%last year.
The Economist of the Fitch Rating Agency Kurdon said: "This transcendence ... to a large extent because the Japanese yen has recently plummeted. In fact, since 2019, Japan's actual GDP has surpassed Germany."
In 2022 and 2023, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell nearly 20%.Part of the reason is that the Central Bank of Japan maintains negative interest rates in order to boost prices, which is different from other major central banks to increase the cost of lending to cope with the soaring inflation.
Russia has soared after the invasion of Ukraine, which has caused a heavy blow to German manufacturers who have seriously relying on exports.The development of this largest European economy has also been controlled by the European Central Bank to increase the uncertainty of interest rates, budgets, and long -term shortages of the euro zone interest rate, budget.
The gap between Japanese labor shortage and Germany will expand
Japan also seriously relies on exports, especially car exports.The weak yen makes export goods relatively cheap, which helps large manufacturers such as Toyota to offset the weakness of major markets such as China.However, due to the low population and the continued low birth rate, Japan has suffered greater influence than Germany due to labor shortage. As a result, the economist expects that the gap between the two economies will expand.
The data released by the Japanese government on Thursday also showed that the Japanese economy shrinks by 0.1%month -on -month after the adjustment of the last three menstrual adjustments in 2023, and has not reached 0.2%of the market expectations.In the third quarter, the growth was reduced to 0.8%, which meant that the Japanese economy fell into a technical recession in the second half of last year.
Yongbin Liguang, chief economist of Japan's First Institute of Life Economics, said: "Like Japan, the German population has been decreasing, but the economy has achieved stable growth. That is because, especially since the 1900sThe German government has been actively creating an environment that is conducive to business operations.
During the period of Japanese economic prosperity in the 1970s and 1980s, some people have predicted that Japan is expected to become the world's largest economy.By the beginning of the 1990s, the disastrity of Japanese asset bubbles had led to decades of economic stagnation and currency tightening.
In 2010, Japan's second largest economy's position was replaced by Asian competitors in China.Today, China's economic scale is about four times that of Japan.
India's output is expected to surpass Japan and Germany in two or three years
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that India's economy is booming. Its output is expected to surpass Japan in 2026 and in 2027, but it is not in terms of GDP per capita.
Garcia Elero, an economist of French Foreign Trade Bank (Natixis), said that Germany and Japan "contributing to global growth is shrinking ... Because their productivity is already very high, it is difficult to improve."She said that the two countries can take measures to relieve problems. The most direct way is to accept more immigrants or increase fertility.
