Russia invaded Ukraine Monday (October 16) for 600 days.On the battlefield, Ukraine, which has been supported by a large number of western weapons, has progressed slowly.Outside the battlefield, he repeatedly vowed to firmly support the Western powers of Ukraine, but even showed the symptoms of "Ukrainian fatigue".
"Ukraine Fatigue" or "War Fatigue" is threatening to weaken the West's support for Ukraine.
Ukraine's summer counterattacks using Western equipment have been carried out for more than four months, but significant progress has not been made.The protracted war cannot see the signs of the end, but the boredom of the war is getting higher and higher.
Western elites are still committed to supporting Kiev until the end.NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg said in August that NATO would support Ukraine until it won.The European Commission President Feng Delin has repeatedly stated that the European Union will support Ukraine "at all costs."US President Biden also said that the United States "will never give up" the support of Ukraine.
However, when the Russian and Ukraine battlefield looks more like another "eternal war", the Western people and some politicians are becoming increasingly uncertain, and they continue to inject more money into the Ukrainian military black hole that will always be dissatisfied.Harmony is a wise move.Domestic politics in Europe and the United States and the worldwide changes have also made the situation in Ukraine more and more bad.
The enthusiasm of Slovakia Polish is weakened
Poland and Slovakia, which are adjacent to Ukraine in Europe, is one of the earliest and most active weapon suppliers in Ukraine, but domestic elections have weakened their enthusiasm.
Slovakia held a general election on September 30. The party led by Russia's former Prime Minister Robert Fico won.During the campaign, Feizo said that he ended military assistance to Ukraine.
Poland Sunday (October 15) was held in a general election. The Polish government had a stiff relationship with Ukraine on the issue of Ukraine's grain exports before the election, and then announced that it would stop providing weapons to Ukraine.The Confederation, the ruling party's law and the Justice Party (PIS) supporting Ukraine, may become the creation of the election.
In Germany, the people have high support for Ukraine, but the German selection party (AFD), the very right -wing, has become the second largest party in Germany.Germany chose the party to advocate Germany's normal relationship with Russia and oppose Germany's intervention in Russia and Ukraine.
In the United States, a Reuters survey found that Americans supporting weapons to Ukraine have dropped from 46%in May to 41%in October, and the proportion of opponents rose from 29%to 35%.
The survey launched on October 3 and 4. Prior to that, the Temporary Demandment Act passed by the US Congress on September 30 did not include new aid funds.Biden later stated that the United States would not set up Ukraine, and the Republican House Speaker McCarthy promised to support Ukraine.However, McCarthy was fired on October 3, and whether his successor would support continuing to help Wuwu was a big question mark.
The ability of the Pakistani conflict affects the ability of U.S. aid?
The situation of the above countries is different, but they all affect the united front of Western support in Ukraine.What is even more unfavorable to Ukraine is that the Palestinian radical organization Hamas launched a raid against Israel on October 7. In addition to the enclosure and air strikes of the Gaza, Israel also threatened to launch ground wars, and the United States, an allies in Israel, could not stand by.Observer is now worried that Israel's request for military assistance may cause weapon supply and attention from Ukraine to Israel.
Compared to assisting Ukraine, the Republicans of the United States Congress are more inclined to support Israel.Republican member Michael Burges
Russia and Ukrainian War The United States has been in UkraineIt provides security aid of about $ 44 billion (about S $ 59.9 billion).The Biden government requested another $ 24 billion in August.As for Israel, the United States provides more than $ 3 billion in military assistance each year.
To a large extent, the military demand in Israel and Ukraine has no major overlap, and the existing supply of Israel is relatively sufficient.According to people familiar with the matter, Israel seeks to obtain missiles, precision missiles and shells from the United States to obtain the iron dome defense system.Ukraine's main demand is ammunition, missile defense system and ground vehicles.
The US National Security Council spokesman Cerby said that the White House does not think that the Israeli situation will affect the assistance to Ukraine because the United States is "large enough, good economy and vibrant, and can support the two at the same time."
But analysts believe that if Israel launches ground wars with the Gaza Strip, supply pressure will increase, because Israel will need more ammunition, and the production capacity of the United States may not keep up with the needs of Israel and Ukraine.Use inventory, and the inventory has been low.This may cause the United States to slowly deliver weapons to Ukraine, because the United States will be careful to ensure that it has sufficient ability to deal with other crises.
The situation is good for Russia
These development development is beneficial to Russia, and Ukrainian President Zelezki can only step up lobbying work in addition to helplessness.When he visited NATO's headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday (October 11), he urged allies to strengthen weapons supply and help Ukraine survive winter.Zelezi later announced that Washington promised him that he would "continue and uninterrupted" against U -military aid.US Secretary of Defense Austin also announced that it provided Kiev with a number of new weapons worth 200 million US dollars, including air defense missiles to help Ukraine resist Russia's winter offensive.
In addition, Kiev has also tried to seek support outside the West, such as strengthening contact with countries such as Brazil and South Africa.TheseThe country has been watching Russia's invasion operations, and Kiev's strategy has not brought immediate results.
Scholars: There is a guarantee for joining NATO and the European Union Ukraine
How can the Ukrainian government still fight for support? At present, Sergii Glebov, an associate professor of International Relations of the National University of International Relations, Norway, answered inquiries in Lianhe Morning Post that Ukraine is starting with the European Union to launchThe joining the alliance negotiated and is committed to obtaining the security of NATO and hopes to become a member of NATO at some time in the future.He believes that trying to meet all the conditions of these two organizations and successfully joining them is the best way to ensure long -term support.
Grebef also believes that Europe and the United States' political and financial support for Ukraine still exist and will continue to maintain firmness, but military support is developing in the direction that is not conducive to Ukraine.factor.
He does not think that the Middle East issue will be dispersed in the United States, but it may make the consideration of the United States complicated.Grebeck said that the Russian and Ukraine and the Middle East conflict were part of the anti -Western policy inspired by Russia and Iran. Therefore, the United States must respond to this continuous and trendy wave of violence in the West.
Ukraine can't win Russia and will not lose
Ukraine's summer counterattack has not made significant progress, not to say that it has no progress.In fact, Ukraine recovered some lost land in the south and launched an attack on the headquarters of Crimea's Black Sea Fleet.
"War Fatigue" appearing in the West mainly has to think that this is a war that cannot be won in Ukraine, so he questioned why he should continue to fill this bottomless hole.
Miri, chairman of the United States Chiefs Chief of Staff at the end of September, has repeatedly questioned the possibility of Ukraine's victory.In August, he described Ukraine's counterattack with "long, bloody, slow", saying that it may be able to completely expel Ukraine through the diplomatic plan and suggest that he does not believe in military solutions.
The analysis of the German business news website BNE Intellinews pointed out that Ukraine cannot win. In addition to its own strength, it is also related to the attitude of Western powers.The NATO allies' goal of the Russia -Ukraine War was "not allowing Ukraine to lose", not "Ukraine must win", and "Don't over -stimulate Russia to trigger the Third World War".Therefore, it is unlikely that NATO allies are unlikely to change their policies and provide Ukraine with weapons that are sufficient to win the battle, but just let it not lose.
For diplomatic solutions, Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not cut the land to Russia, and it will not start the peace talks before the Russian army is completely expelled from the Ukraine.Polls show that the vast majority of Ukrainian people hold the same point.
As for the Kremlin, it expresses an open attitude towards negotiations, but Russian President Putin shows that Russia will not discuss the four states (Lugusk, Donetsk, Zapolo and Hehe, and Hehe, and Hede last September last year.Er Song), because they are now Russia's sovereign territory.It is impossible to return Crimea, because Russia has regarded Crimea as its territory since 2014.
This makes the diplomatic process fall into a deadlock.
Of course, if Western powers want to end this conflict, they generally believe that they can do it as long as they cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine.However, the White House has repeatedly stated that when the negotiations began depending on Kiev, Kiev is still unintentionally negotiated. After all, counterattack operations are still advancing, and there is still some time before the winter.
However, if the number of deaths after winter increases, the voices of the war may increase.Unless the counterattack has achieved more substantial progress than so far.
For Ukraine if Ukraine will eventually be forced to negotiate with Russia, Gleberberry answered inquiries: "The possibility exists, after all, there is a limit on resistance." But he also believes that it is not yet discussing any specific clauses.when.
Putin will wait and see the US Presidential Election
As for Russia, with the approaching of the US presidential election in 2024 and the former US President Trump may return to the White House, Putin may choose to wait and see the results of the US presidential election.
Trump is currently ahead of other candidates in the Republican President's primary election.In August, he promised that once he was elected, the war would end within 24 hours.When the reporter asked him to explain in detail, he revealed his plan: "Tell Zerrenzki, 'No, you must reach an agreement. If you do not reach an agreement, we will give them a lot. We will give them more.There have been many more. "Trump refers to a compromise plan that was rejected by Zellezki and replaced with peace with land.
British journalist, Yuequan: Putin's insider Owen Matthews on the Ukrainian war wrote in an observer magazine: "Because the new Trump administration is most likely elected in November 2024, Putin's obvious strategy isIt is to keep the soldiers as much as possible in the Ukrainian position as much as possible. "
Matthews quoted former US President Barack Obama's chief Russian issue consultant and former ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul said: "I don't understand why the invasion of Putin would end the invasion before knowing the results of the US presidential election."He believes that only shame, comprehensive, decisive military failure or Russian economic collapse can force Putin to negotiate before.
Analysis believes that the most likely result of war is frozen conflicts like South Korea and North Korea, not Russia's defeat.In fact, the White House has repeatedly stated that its plan is to give the Russian army to hit the Russian army so that Ukraine is "at a favorable position as much as possible when he eventually enters the negotiating table."
However, Gleberber said in an interview with this newspaper that freezing conflict is the worst case for Ukraine, because the conflict on its territory will last decades.
Renaud Girard, a French reporter, also agreed that he pointed out in the column of the Ferguro that history has proven that the war without winners or losers often does not bring firm peace.
