Canada and India have recently made a lot of trouble due to the assassination of a Sikh leader.
The two countries expel diplomats and suspend the negotiations of the Free Trade Agreement.India stops all visa for Canadian personnel, and the Minister of Trade in Canada has also canceled its original visit to India in October.
However, it has previously publicly condemned Western countries such as Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to launch foreign -related assassinations. This time, it only called on India to cooperate with Canadian investigations.
Canada and India are in a diplomatic dispute. Why do Western countries choose to watch coldly?
In June of this year, the 45 -year -old Canadian Sijjar died of 34 shots in a Surrey's Surrey, Surrey, Western Canada.
Three months later, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau suddenly threw a shocking bomb, saying that "credible" evidence showed that Indian agents were behind the scenes of Nejar's assassination.
In 1997, Nejar, an immigrant in Canada, is an important member of the independent organization of Sikhism in Canada. It advocates that Sikhs should establish a country called "Khalistan". "Kalistan" campaign for a long time has been regarded as the country by the Indian government as a country for a long time.Security threats were banned in India, and Nejar was also listed as terrorists and wanted by Indian officials.
The US Ambassador to Canada has confirmed that information provided by the five -eye alliance, including the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, is the basis for Trudeau to publicly accuse the Indian government.
Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian agent, was poisoned in London, England in 2006, and the
This time, Sikh's leaders have assassinated in Canada, But more cautious .Last Thursday (September 28), when U.S. Secretary of State Brillings met with Indian Foreign Ministers Su Jieosheng, although the Nijar was killed, he only urged India to cooperate with Canada's investigation without public condemnation.
British Foreign Minister Clever only shows that "very serious" treats Canada's allegations of India, and Australia is just "deep concern."
Canada is one of the closest allies in the United States.In 2018, Canada had the requirements of the United States. When Huawei's chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou turned around in Vancouver, she arrested her. It also caused China to fight back and detaining two Canadian citizens in China.
Analysis: Allies do not say because India is more important than Canada?
Nejar's assassination incident was exposed, Canada had negotiated with Western allies, but countries did not publicly condemn India publicly with Canada on the same line.Some analysts believe that this is because of the importance of India in the huge global strategy, Canada is dwarfed.
The Wilson Center Researcher Xavier Delgado, a researcher at the Canadian Institute, told the Broadcasting Corporation (BBC): "The strategies of the strategy of all ally in the United States, the United Kingdom and all the allies in the Pacific of the West and India have developed the main strategies.Focusing on India as a fortress and checks and balance in China. This is what they cannot give up ... They did not stand up to openly support Canada, which highlights the reality of geopolitics. "
In the past 10 years, although there are no shortage of friction between the United States and India, the sound of cooperation has always been a general trend.In 2013, Devyani Khobragade, the deputy consul of India, was arrested and searched by the Trump administration in 2019, triggering a trade war on India's concessions, and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, India refused to publicly condemn Moscow.Wait, none of them hinder the promotion of cooperation and reaching new agreements and initiatives in the United States and India.Some observer judged that the storms in Canada and India were also unable to stir up too much ripples between the United States and India.
Scholar: There is no reason to support it may not be cold -looking
However, Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor at the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, believes that the investigation of the case is still ongoing, and there are no reason for other countries to support Canada at this time.
Zhuang Jiaying said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: "The Sikh leader was assassinated in Canada, and the Indian sentimental unit suspected that the United States provided information to the Canadian government.There seems to be a clear legal basis for intervention. "
"In addition, the investigation is still ongoing, and the Canadian administrative department is also unable to intervene in legal procedures. At most, it can only report to Congress and citizens with national security and conditions. At this time, there is no reason to intervene in the United States."
Zhuang Jiaying said that each country will have their own interests and calculations."How this assassination will affect the US -India relations, we must see the development of future development and the evidence proposed by Canada."
American Enterprise Institute, Michael Rubin, a senior researcher, thrown a question: Saudi column commentator Kashuji and international terrorist leader Kaida were killed, where is itOne is even more similar to the assassination of Nejar?
Rubin said in an Asian interview: "Most Americans may be unfamiliar with (Sikh) Caliistan 'terrorism', but the answer to the above questions is Osama.New Delhi is required to support anti -Western terrorist organizations, and on the other hand, I ignore New Delhi's concerns about Indian terrorist organizations. "
Window: Kalistan -Independent Movement or Terrorism?
The Calistan Movement reached a climax in the 1970s and the 1980s. The goal was to establish a country belonging to Sikhs next to the Punual Public in northern India.Supporters have embarked on the road of armed fighting, and they have repeatedly hijacked Indian passenger planes to threaten the government.
In June 1984, the Indian army attacked the Sikhi Emiki Golden Temple used as a base for separatists as bases.Four months later, Indian Prime Minister Irahla Gandhi, who was ordered to attack the Golden Temple, was assassinated by two bodyguards who believed in Sikh.
To this day, Sikhs who are scattered overseas still have many people who support the Kalistan movement, and Nejar, who was assassinated in Canada, is considered one of the leaders of the movement.Nejar is said to be planning to hold a referendum in India.
plusNaka is the country with the most Sikhs outside India.The Sikh in Canada insisted that Kalistan was a peaceful movement, but India listed Nejar as a terrorist, saying that he planned the explosion of the Punjab in 2007 and provided funds and training for separatist militants.
Vice Article: India Angry and Diplomat and Prime Minister: Build a close relationship with India
India was completely angry by Canada's allegations.Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau tries to emphasize the emphasis on India, but scholars are not optimistic about the relationship between the two countries that can be stabilized in the near future.
Trudeau told the National Post at the end of September that it is extremely important to have a "constructive and serious" contact with India."India is an increasingly growing economic country and an important geopolitical participant. Just as we proposed last year, we have a closer relationship with India."
After reporting that India has taken off 41 diplomats before October 10, Trudeau even stated: "We do not want the situation to upgrade ... In this extremely difficult period, we willExpand important work and continue to maintain a constructive relationship with India. "
India is the 10th largest trading partner country in Canada. Last year, the bilateral trade volume of the two countries reached $ 11.9 billion (S $ 16.3 billion), an increase of 56%over the previous year.
In addition, Indians account for nearly one -fifth of Canadian immigrants, and international students who receive higher education in Canada are also mostly Indians.In 2022, Indian students accounted for more than 28%of the total number of foreign students in Canada.If Indian students abandon Canada for higher education, it may affect the higher education industry that bring about 22 billion Canadian dollars (about $ 21.934 million) in Canada each year.
Although Trudeau has worked hard to show India, Vina Nadjibulla, a guest professor at British Columbia University, does not think that the tension between Ottawa and New Delhi will calm down in a short time.She told the Financial Times: "It is difficult to see any changes when the leaders of the two countries remain unchanged."
[Deputy Text] India and Canada quarrel with Modi suffer Trudeau?
When the Indian Prime Minister Modi sought re -election next year, the Nijar incident will undoubtedly be a trump card used by supporters to show that India has become one of the world's power under the leadership of Modi.Reunion exists.
Since Trudeau has accused the Indian government of hacked behind the scenes of Nyjar, India has always adopted an offensive and countered Canada.The incident has lifted the nationalist emotions of the Indians, and Canada has also become the goal of bombardment in Indian domestic TV shows.
Ayesha Ray, Assistant Professor of Political Department of King Pennsylvania, told Bloomberg: "For Indian nationalists who seek to adopt more tough means in foreign policy, this incident may inspire more people's support claimsTake a tough attitude towards terrorism. "
Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King College London, also said that the Ciszoic Cause of Nili will help enhance the image of Modi, showing that Modi is a "strong, pragmatic and serious, and it will also be right."Leaders who put pressure on potential allies".
Pander has inferred that India will not make concessions on this issue, and it is unlikely to cooperate with any international survey.
However, Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the University of National University, believes that it is not yet possible to determine whether this storm will boost Modi's political reputation.He said: "The outside world does not know what role India is involved. The use of emotional personnel to assassinate abroad, which assisted in planning, providing key information, or encouraging others to take the severity of action, which is quite different."
The "Global Leaders' Support Rate" released by market research company Morning Consult last month showed that among the 22 global leaders, Modi, with a domestic support rate of up to 76%, is the most popular, compared to the second place in the second placeSwiss President Bellscer was 12 percentage points higher.
Relatively speaking, the 10th Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has only 37%support in China.The charm of this top eight -year leader seems to be gradually fading.
Since 2015, Trudeau's political parties have won the ruling power in the three elections in a row, but the voting rate has repeatedly declined. The most recent elections can only establish a minority government.
Shachi Kurl, director of the Angus Reid Institute, told BBC: "In the past eight years, his (Trudeau) support rate has never been at such a low level. Some people even evenJust ask him: Do you still die if you still die? Will you resign? "
Trudeau's support rate is getting worse, which is caused by multiple factors at home and abroad.
High -rising living expenses and housing prices are the biggest "internal concerns" faced by Trudeau.Many middle classes in Canada are now in financial difficulties.Although the annual inflation rate in Canada is still one of the lowest of the G20 member states of the 20th Group (G20), it has fallen from 8%in June 2022, but the inflation rate has recently risen to 4%again.Twice the time.
In foreign relations, Trudeau's performance is not ideal.Canada is now rigid with India, and the relationship with Beijing after the Meng Wanzhou incident has not improved. This year, it also added a storm to investigate China's intervention in Canadian elections.
Zhuang Jiaying believes that how Trudeau's next handling Nejar's assassination will affect his political reputation."For general countries, the impact of foreign affairs on politicians or political parties will be less than domestic affairs. If the assassination incident will affect Trudeau, this will be extended to internal affairs and personal judgments.The influence can be good or bad. You must see how the next situation develops, and Trudeau's reaction. "
The Chief Political Lord of the Canada Global Post, Clark, even believes that if it is properly handled, India's diplomatic disputes may provide Trudeau with urgent support in China.Clark told BBC: "This incident allows him to temporarily get rid of the entanglement of all internal affairs."
