(Washington Comprehensive) Reuters quoted a report from senior officials in the United States, and US national security adviser Sha Liven and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on the weekend in Malta's talks, allowing the United States to see the "small amount of China allowing the two countries to conduct communication between the two countries."possibility.
Chinese officials have not commented on the prospects of China and the United States to restore military communication.Bloomberg analysis pointed out that if the Chinese Defense Director Li Shangfu, who disappeared for several weeks, was true that the outside world speculated that it was replaced, it may help to restart the high -level military talks between China and the United States.
Li Shangfu has not appeared publicly since August 29. Some reports say that he may not be guaranteed by the investigation due to corruption.Bloomberg quoted unnamed US officials reported that American intelligence showed that he had been fired.China has previously stated that the United States must first terminate the sanctions against Li Shangfu to restore military talks by both sides.Therefore, if he is dismissed, he will restart a major obstacle for the dialogue between the two countries.
Sino -US relations have deteriorated after visiting Taiwan in the summer of 2022, and did not have stabilized until recent months.Since June, US President Biden has sent four cabinet officials to visit Beijing to re -establish communication channels with China, and has paved the way for the two countries.
China frozen for high -level military contact with the United States after visiting Pelosi. After Li Shangfu became the Minister of Defense in March this year, the efforts of the two countries' recovery of military dialogue fell into stagnation.
When Li Shangfu served as the Minister of Equipment Development of the CPC Central Committee in 2018, he was sanctioned by the United States for major transactions with Russian military fire merchants.China said that the United States should terminate his sanctions so that the two countries can develop exchanges and cooperation.However, the United States showed that it did not intend to lift the sanctions against Li Shangfu.
At present, China and the United States have resumed low -level military connections. If Li Shangfu is exchanged, Biden will not have to make choices between maintaining the stability of Sino -US military relations and succumbing to China.
Scholars: Political turbulence China and the United States Foreign Prospects Unknown
However, Li Nan, a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore, believes that Li Shangfu was fired or helped to thaw for military relations between China and the United States, but he could not eliminate greater problems between these two superpowers.He said: "This may be helpful, but it cannot ensure that bilateral interaction is smooth. Sino -US relations are not progressing smoothly, and there are other reasons."
Liu Dongshu, assistant professor of Chinese politics, specifically studying Chinese politics, pointed out that recently China's political turmoil has triggered concerns about investors and foreign governments.He said: "These problems have exacerbated China's instability and unpredictable concerns, and may also cause concern to China's political stability."
Before Li Shangfu disappeared, the former foreign minister Qin Gang and the two generals of the Chinese Rocket Army were also replaced.Liu Dongshu said that Li Shangfu's potential successors are now too early.
U.S. officials said that Shalvin and Wang Yi did not mention Li Shangfu or Qin Gang in the weekend talks.The report pointed out that no matter why Li Shangfu disappears, this will trigger a new problem about the status quo of the Chinese army.
Bates Gill, Executive Director of the China Analysis Center of the Asian Association Policy Research Institute, wrote in a recent report: "Corruption is still a long -term problem.The ability to exercise power. "
