It is an old problem with debt defaults in the United States.Over the past few decades, the United States has increased debt limit dozens of times.In the period of 2011, the two sides of the Obama were not compromised until two days before the breach of contract, and it was shaved; therefore the United States was relegated by the rating agency for the first time.
NOAH Berman, a scholar at the US think tank Foreign Relations Committee, commented in May that since 1960, the US Congress has increased the upper limit by 78 times, and the last time was in 2021.49 of them were implemented during the term of office of the Republican President, and 29 times were implemented during the term of the Democratic President.
Burman said that the political division of political poles in the United States in the past 10 years has continued to deepen, and the disputes between the two parties' parliamentarians have not diminished in increasing the debt limit.It's hard to be good.
Besides, the US presidential election was held at the end of 2024. It is foreseeable that the two parties will be more intense in the future to fight for the throne of the president and control Congress.In the next year or two, both sides will continue to wipe their palms, and they will only continue to wrestle.
The struggle of the American party will continue to affect the confidence of other countries and international investors."Any blow to American economic confidence, whether it is a default or an uncertainty around it, may cause investors to sell US Treasury bonds and weaken the US dollar."
The debt default crisis is just one of the major issues facing the United States.The US domestic bank crisis has already attracted deep attention from countries.Silicon Valley Bank and Mark Bank closed down in March this year, and then the First Republican Bank could not hold it. The stock price of some medium -sized banks plummeted, worrying about whether it would be another explosive financial bomb.
American people are not optimistic about national prospects
In recent years, things in the United States have not been smooth.What do the American people think?
Andrew Daniller, a researcher at the
Pew Research Center, said Americans generally have negative emotions for the status quo of the country, and most of the interviewees expressed dissatisfaction with the economic and overall national conditions.The latest survey of Pew showed that when asked about the future, they thought that the United States would be worse in many aspects in many ways in the future than today.
Daniel's public opinion specifically studying US politics and policies. He further said: "A considerable number of American adults believe that by 2050, about 25 years later, the US economy will be weaker.The importance of the importance will decline, and the gap between political differences and the gap between the rich and the poor will also expand. In these fields, few adults are optimistic about the prospects of the United States. "
Daniele pointed out that in the past year, Americans have declined with their confidence in the future.In May 2022, 68 % of the respondents said that they had some confidence in the future of the country, eight percentage points higher than those who said so today.
The United States frequently emphasizes not to be decoupled with China
Turn to foreign countries, the problems and resistance faced by the United States are not small.
In terms of confrontation between the United States and China, the United States has been soft in the past few months, which frequently indicates that the United States wants to control US -China relations and not to decompose with China's economy and trade.The European Union also said that maintaining stable and constructive cooperation with China is in line with the EU's interests.The US president Bayidon, a US president who attended the Seventh National Group (G7) Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, said that the purpose of the G7 is to reduce risks instead of deciring with China, and said that the US -China relations will quickly thaw.
Compared with the tough attitude of the United States in the past, this can not help people feel that the United States is a bit unsatisfactory today. In the long -term contest of the two strongs, how much can I win in the future?In terms of trade, the measures to impose tariffs on China's imported goods during the period of President Trump did not seem to have much cheaper.After Biden came to power, it has been retained this tariff measure, obviously to bargain with China.
The Russian and Ukraine War was the largest international maintenance of justice in the United States.More than a year ago, the United States led NATO countries and allies to support Ukraine against Russia's aggression. The situation is still unknown. Although Russia has repeatedly frustrated on the battlefield, it still has the ability to harm Ukraine.Behind the West is actively supporting Ukraine, but it may not be able to repel the Russian army in the short term and regain Ukraine.
Besides, while the Russian and Ukraine Army fiercely fought, for the United States, new variables have emerged, that is, China has begun to insert a foot.On April 26, Chinese officials and Ukraine President Zelezki called on April 26. Beijing apparently began to play the role of mediation in this war.If China successfully allows Russia to achieve a certain degree of compromise, it must be a blow to the United States.
The James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Technology Rajele South International Research Institute, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that the United States faced many problems in the United States, but this is not the phenomenon of the United States.There are many internal affairs issues to be solved.
Duoxi said that, looking at the world, although the United States cannot maintain its own strength and needs to share hegemony with other powers.Essence
From the perspective of Duoxi, the future world may be the three major powers, namely the United States, China and India.He is optimistic that India will be the third power. India is the country with the most population in the world. Economic power and potential cannot be ignored. In a few years, they can become the third largest economy in the world.
Another strength of India is that it has a huge overseas community, and overseas Indian talents are born, which is a powerful force.Duoxi said: "India is conditions, strategies, vision, and huge networks and relations."
Dr. Han Wei, manager of Huili Securities Investment Portrait, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the proportion of economic power in the United States in the world has declined, but it cannot be determined that the United States is going downhill."Because the world's highest -tech industry is inseparable from the United States. Artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, new energy vehicles, and autonomous driving are the most cutting -edge fields. They are dominated by American companies, and the advantages of the United States in the field of high -tech are in the future in the futureThe era of informatization should continue to be strengthened. "
He pointed out that although the US dollar is facing some pressure, because there is no powerful competitor, for a long time, there is no real opponent at the legal currency level.Digital currencies may have a certain impact on the existing world currency order, but due to the characteristics of digital currency natural lack of supervision and high volatility, it can only be applied to value storage and anti -inflation (currency excess) for a long time.Circular currency does not pose too much threat to the US dollar.Therefore, he believes that the absence of the US dollar will not go too deep.It will not shake in the future in the expected future.
Can the United States continue to be global in the future and continue the dominant position?Han Wei, who has long observed the global political and economic situation, said that hegemony is not only a large amount of economic volume, the GDP (GDP) is high, but more importantly, the influence on the world. Even if countries around the world have high recognition and recognition andThe degree of obedience.
Han Wei said that although the United States is no longer as large as in the past, from the economic level, the EU, China and other economies are also increasing, but the United States continues to lead the world through values output and currency.The US dollar is common in the world, and the most widely used language in the world is American English.Other powers are currently difficult to shake the US position."In my opinion, there is no sign of changing the world pattern."
China prompts Saudi Arabia to reconcile the United States' influence on the Middle East
From 1991 to 2021, the United States has dominated the Middle East.In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the United States called on allies to fight against the Middle Eastern countries. After the 2001 incident in 2001, the United States took the lead in cracking down on terrorism. Later, he attacked Iraq in 2003 and continued to pursue terrorists in Afghanistan.However, shortly after Bidai on the stage in 2021, the U.S. military was ordered to withdraw from Afghanistan in August of the same year, which shocked the world.From time to time, the United States no longer attaches great importance to the Middle East.
In March of this year, a shocking news appeared: China has promoted the two Middle East enemies, Saudi Arabia and Iran to reach a reconciliation in Beijing, re -establish diplomatic relations, and open up the embassy of each other.This has made the world's eye -catching and re -evaluating China's global influence.
When Saudi Arabia announced a reconciliation with Iran under the mediation in Beijing, some former US government officials said that this was a slap in the Biden government. Even Western scholars believed that this was a diplomatic victory in China, reminding Washington to reviewMiddle East policy.Ortman, an expert in the Middle East issue of the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center, said that Beijing's participation has exacerbated people's views on China's strength and influence, and the global influence of the United States has continued to narrow.
Duoxi said that the statement about China's influence in the Middle East, according to the existing circumstances, it is still a bit overwhelming.He believes that after two years of negotiations, Saudi Arabia and Iran have generally reached the content of the agreement, and then signed a peace agreement in Beijing.What's more, in the past two years, other countries such as Iraq and Oman have promoted the reconciliation of Shay behind the scenes. "So I don't think that China has played a great role in this, and it cannot be said to be the main medium."
The statement of China's play in the Middle East, Duoxi believes that it still takes time to verify.
The United States and Saudi Arabia have maintained more than 70 years of ally.Han Wei said that the United States no longer dominates Middle East affairs. On the one hand, it is influenced by a gentle way, and on the other hand, it is also the result of the United States' initiative to adjust its strategy.For the United States, the old tough way is becoming more and more outdated in the global democratic environment.In addition, "In the past years, by promoting shale oil technology, clean energy technology (solar wind energy, etc.), the United States' dependence on Middle East crude oil has been significantly reduced. At presentThe importance of fossil energy will gradually decline in the future, so the United States does not need to continue to invest a lot of energy and funds to maintain high control of Middle East affairs. "
Analysis says that the United States and Saudi Arabia are at the crossroads.Saudi Arabia is dealing with the worsening regional security environment, and at the same time it has a decline in trust in US security guarantee.It is known that Saudi Arabia recently requested the United States to make security guarantees, to obtain a stable arms supply in the United States, and to help Saudi Arabia develop civil nuclear plans, including uranium concentration.
Duoxi said that the United States is adjusting its strategy, reducing the United States' investment in the Middle East, and putting more resources in the Pacific region of China and India.
He pointed out that the United States has still participated in the Middle East affairs so far, and has not cut off relationships with the Middle East country, Saudi Arabia.He does not think that there is a problem of rotation of a power in the Middle East. "Now, there is no problem that a strong country replaces the other power in the Middle East."
U.S. -Russian tailor -reduced dumplings to the deadlock to give an outer branch in the United States
In addition, the issue of US -Russian Russia -Russian tactics that are related to global safety have also brought great trouble to the United States.
In February 2023, Russia announced the suspension of the Performance of the New Start (New Start). At the end of March, the United States announced that it would stop the data with Russia's interoperability of nuclear weapons, and the reduction of nuclear bombs fell into an impasse.However, the United States disclosed nuclear weapons data on May 15 and asked Russia to do so. It is believed that public data from the United States is a major change in policy.
The new cutting strategic weapon treaty is the last military control treaty in the United States and Russia.According to the statistics of the US Scientist Federation, Russia has the most nuclear bombs, with 5,977, 5,428 in the United States, and the total number of nuclear warheads in the two countries accounts for about 90 % of the world's total.If Russia takes risks and is a little careless, it is possible to have a nuclear war!
Duoxi said that the whole world is walking towards the road of nuclear diffusion.The Russian and Ukraine War has proven the role of nuclear deterrence.European and American countries have some scruples when supporting Ukraine, and they dare not provide more excellent weapons to Ukraine because they are worried that they will stimulate Russia and fear that the other party will use nuclear weapons.
In addition, North Korea has been conducting nuclear deterrence recently, and the probability of Iran's nuclear diffusion is very high, and China is also expanding the nuclear arsenal.
Stergolm International Institute of International Peace (SIPRI) data shows that China now has 350 nuclear warheads, but the US Department of Defense predicted in November 2022 that the number of Chinese nuclear warheads may reach 1,500 in 2035.G7 national leaders said at the summit last week that China ’s rapid expansion of nuclear arsenal will affect global and regional stability.
As for Iran, in July 2015, Iran and the United States, China, and Russia six powers reached an agreement on restricting Iran's development nuclear weapons and lifting sanctions on Iran.Exit the Iran nuclear agreement and restore sanctions on Iran.After that, Iran accelerated its nuclear plan and formed another security concern worldwide.
Duoxi said: "For global security, nuclear diffusion is a dangerous trend. It can only hope that the nuclear deterrence between nuclear countries will continue to play a role, so that the nuclear war will not explode."
