(Washington Composite Electric) International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a small prediction of economic growth in the United States this year, but it is believed that the overall economic slowdown may lead to a slight increase in the unemployment rate next year.
According to the latest predictions of IMF, the actual domestic GDP (Real GDP) of the United States this year will increase by 1.7%, which is slightly higher than the previous predicted 1.6%, and it is expected to slow to 1.0%next year.
IMF President Georkiyeva said at a press conference on Friday (May 26): "The US economy has proven to be tough."
She hopes that the U.S. government can find a solution to crisis in time to avoid catastrophic debt defaults and impact the global economy.
IMF's statement also said: "As the United States and the global economy have obviously stress, the marginal policy of the United States on the upper limit of federal debt may further bring a completely avoided systemic risk to the economy ... In order to avoid intensifying downward, downward settlementRisk, Congress should immediately increase or put on hold on the debt limit. "
The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to be close to the historical low, driven by "gradually slowing down but still stable economic growth", and will rise to 4.4%at the end of next year.
As for the inflation rate in the United States, IMF predicts that next year will be above the Federal Reserve's 2%goal.Golkaya said that elastic demand and a strong labor market have always been a "double -edged sword" for the US economy."They undoubtedly play a role in boosting American families, but also lead to inflation that lasts longer than expected."
IMF expects that by 2025, the U.S. inflation rate will still be firmly above the target level; Georkeva believes that the Fed's interest rate hike work has not been completed.She pointed out that if the Fed successfully allows the inflation rate to fall to 2%, the interest rate "must be maintained at a higher level".
"To allow inflation to stabilize the goal of 2%of 2%, it takes a long time to tighten the monetary policy ... We expect the federal fund interest rate will be maintained in a range of 5.25%to 5.5%, until 2024 is later." IMF believes that the Fed's benchmark loan interest rate must rise at least 25 basis points in order to reach 5.4%this year and maintain it until next year.
Georkeva said the US government needs to reduce deficit, especially by increasing taxes."The earlier this adjustment, the better. It is worth noting that fiscal adjustment can be carried out in advance, which also helps the Fed to reduce inflation."