International Special Special
The Twenty Group Summit was held on the 15th and 16th of this month in Bali, Indonesia.The problems of the energy or food crisis and supply are being disturbed from all over the world. True challenges such as the Russia -Ukraine War and the Sino -US confrontation upgrade still exist. There are so many challenges that the world must respond to. The summit has naturally attracted much attention.All walks of life are looking forward to these world's largest economic scale and the fastest growing countries in the world to gather in front of the round table to reach a compromise and come up with a plan.
1
Different differences between big powers are difficult to obtain specific solutions
As the host country of the G20 (G20) summit, the President of Indonesia, the President of Indonesia, was in trouble.The energy and food issues faced around the world require leaders of all countries to participate in the conferences together, combined and beneficial, and obtain some substantial solutions with the summit.However, the continued tension between China and the United States and Russia has added variables to the summit.
Zoko has repeatedly called on all G20 leaders to attend the summit and reminded developing countries to wait for the participating leaders to come up with a solution to the food and energy crisis.
The global pressure of high inflation, the New Economy and Society of the New Economy and Society, a subsidiary of the World Economic Forum, announced on November 7 that the G20 member states believe that inflation, debt crisis, and rising living expensesIn the next two years, it will pose a biggest threat to business, and inflation is the most worried issue of the G20 countries.
TheSurvey shows that the one -third of the G20 member states regard price rise as the most concerned issue.Environmental problems have retired for the first time over the years.
Grain supply is another tricky challenge.UN Secretary -General Gutres has recently called for extension and implementation of Agricultural products and fertilizer export related agreements on Russia and Ukraine to ensure that Russian agricultural products and fertilizers can be supplied to the international market in a timely manner to avoid the global food crisis.
Getres has warned as early as August that if the global fertilizer supply is insufficient this year, enough food may not be produced in 2023.
In terms of climate change, about 110 national leaders launched climate talks in Egypt on November 7.Countries have been negotiating for many years on climate issues, and their progress has been limited so far, far less than preventing the earth from getting heating over.Gutres warned that if the world is united to implement the Paris Agreement, everyone will eventually go to collective death.
Faced with the above -mentioned issues involving many countries, whether the G20 summit can reach a substantial plan, whether China and Russia are willing to put aside the differences with the West and participate in the problem is a great attention before the summit.
Xu Jian, assistant professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, believes in an email interview with the United Zaobao that in view of the complexity and interrelatedness of the current problem, it is impossible for countries to take out specific steps during this meeting to solve the solution to solveNumerous challenges in the world.
The difficulty of coordination and consensus of security and economic issues
Xu Jian said that the previous G20 meetings can reach consensus on issues involving widespread countries, such as climate change, innovation, environment and sustainability.The issues that must be responding to this year will be the Ukrainian war and the global economic crisis.
"The tricky is that the global economic recovery after the crown disease is hindered by some major domestic and foreign policies, such as Russia, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom. When security issues are associated with economic issues, membersIt is more difficult to coordinate proper policy reactions and solutions. "
Therefore, he expects that the G20 meeting will have great controversy and many cracks, including the West and non -Western countries, as well as the group, such as Germany and other EU countries, and between China and Russia.
He believes that strategic countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and India will try to arbitrage between differences.If some great powers do not make meaningful concessions, the meeting is likely to have no results and coordination in solving the differences between countries.Huang Haitao, an associate professor of Zhou Enlai School of Government Management of Nankai University of China, told the United Morning Post that in the context of unilateralism and protectionist momentum, especially under the realistic conditions of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, in response to economic growth, energy crisis, climate change, etc.Any substantial solution launched on the global issue will be repeatedly reviewed by relevant parties with different positions.
Huang Haitao said that building an initiative that can gather and reflect the reasonable expectations of all parties is the goal that the G20 chairman, Indonesia is promoting.Therefore, it is more likely to occur, just like the previous summit, the G20 has a willingness to cooperate through the principle initiative or declare through principle initiative or declaration to indicate that under the crisis and huge changes, and still want to maintain the normal operation of the multilateral negotiation platform.He believes that if this goal can be achieved, it is the victory of this G20 summit.
Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that the G20 is basically a coordination platform and has no execution mechanism. Even if leaders of various countries have a certain resonance, they must finally depend on whether individual countries are willing to implement.He believes that the differences between major powers are serious, and it is more pessimistic about whether there is important breakthroughs.
Nevertheless, Western officials still believe that the G20 is a useful international forum.German Finance Minister Lindna said recently: "Even if the views are different, including you disagree, there are even some views that you don't understand. This is still a good dialogue forum."
Because there is a big difference between the United States and the West, with China and Russia, the G20 is expected to end the meeting without a joint communiqué.Sources said to Agence France -Presse: "We can publish a bulletin that does not mention the Russian and Ukraine War, but we don't want a communiqué that cover up the facts."
2
How did Putin not attend the summit?
Biden and Russian President Putin raised each other before the summit, and Biden stated early that he would not meet Putin at the venue of the summit.
Putin has repeated positions on whether to attend.In August of this year, although Western pressure stopped Russia from attending the meeting and stepped up internationally internationally, Putin still accepted Indonesia's invitation at the time.
Bloomberg Society on Wednesday (9th) quoted sources saying that Putin would not attend. This was to take care of Putin's face, avoid being crowded out and neglected by other G20 countries on this international occasion, and also avoided Putin and other countries leaders.Indonesian officials confirmed that Putin would not attend the summit the next day, and was attended by Foreign Minister Lavrov on behalf of it, but Putin participated in one of the meetings online.
Putin's spokesman said on Friday that because the schedule could not come, the president would not participate in the G20 summit, and there was no plan to participate onlineEssence
As the host country, Indonesian President Zoko has always tried to persuade the leaders of all member states to attend, especially the leaders of the three countries, the United States and Russia, and hope to promote the success of the summit.Even if Putin did not attend, the outside world is still very concerned about how the relationship between Russia and other member states of G20 develops.
Huang Haitao, an associate professor of the Zhou Enlai School of Government Management, China Nankai University, said that the G20 summit is a multilateral negotiation platform. Because of the differences in policies, positions, and actions in all parties, such international mechanisms need to play communication information, stable expectations and stable expectations and stable expectations.The role of coordination.
In addition, although Ukraine is not a member of the G20, Indonesia still invites Ukraine President Zelezzky to participate in the summit.Zeelianzki recently said that if Putin comes, he will not come.However, the spokesman for Zellezki said on the 8th that Zellezki will attend the summit online in an online manner.
3
The relationship between the United States and Sands from the deterioration of the oil alliance is getting away
In order to alleviate the pressure of oil prices in the United States in July this year, Biden visited Saudi Arabia, a large oil -producing country in Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi Arabia's actual power and crown prince Mohammed to strive to increase Saudi production, but returned empty -handed.
Bynden originally hoped to convince the major oil -producing countries to increase oil production, thereby reducing oil prices, alleviating the pressure of inflation in the United States, and creating momentum for the mid -term elections in the United States in November.However, Saudi Arabia refuses to increase production unilaterally and insists that it must operate within the Oil Union+(OPEC+) framework.
By the beginning of October, the Oil Union and the Oil Alliance+announced that it has reduced production sharply from November, reducing daily output by 2 million barrels.This made Biden unexpectedly, and criticizing production reduction was a short -sighted decision, saying that it was necessary to re -evaluate the relationship between the two countries, and warned Saudi Arabia to pay the decision to reduce oil production.
Saudi Saudi Salman later explained that Saudi Arabia would strive to ensure the stability and balance of the oil market.Saudi Defense Minister and Salman's son Harchid also said that reducing production is based on economic considerations.But these are still unable to calm the anger of the United States.
After the United States scolds each other with Saudi Arabia, the Oil Alliance and the Oil Union+the Oil Union+including Russia and have come out to support Saudi Arabia, indicating that the reduction of production is the unanimous decision of the oil alliance+.US officials said that Biden did not intend to meet with Crown Muhammad during the G20 summit.
This time, will the G20 care about the issue of oil reduction at the summit?Huang Haitao, an associate professor of Zhou Enlai School of Government Management of Nankai University of China, believes that since the bilateral meeting of Meisha cannot reach a consensus on oil production, it is even more impossible for the G20 summit to complete.
Saudi Arabia seek diversified investment portfolio diversified risks to make the country more independent
Is the two countries that may repair the relationship in the future?Bloomberg analyzed that the relationship between Meisha has changed over the years.In terms of oil, the United States is now the largest oil producer in the world, and Saudi Arabia ranks second.Saudi Arabia has lost its outstanding position as an exporter of oil in the United States many years ago, and its importance to the importance of the United States has weakened.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has increasingly closer economic and trade relations.China is now the largest trading partner in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia has also upgraded its economic and trade with India.On the whole, Saudi Arabia is moving towards different routes from previous decades, seeking diversification of investment portfolios and away from oil.
Petroleum still accounts for about 75 % of Saudi Export.This may keep Saudi Arabia from the United States and turn to new partners.
Senior Researcher Zimba, a new US Security Center in Washington Think Tank, said that Saudi Arabia is decentralized and makes its country more independent."They still see the benefits of investing in the United States, and they still see the value of the US dollar. But at the same time, they are looking for other alternative options."
4
Can the meeting between China and the United States alleviate the relationship between the two countries?
China and the United States continue to confront them. Chinese officials have a great power in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. All parties pay close attention to the meeting between the leaders of the two countries during the summit to set the trend of future Sino -US relations.
U.S. President Biden and Chinese officials have previously called five times before.The White House announced on Thursday afternoon that Biden would talk to the G20 summit on Monday (14th) to the G20 summit on Monday (14th).This will be the first face -to -face meeting since Biden took office in January last year.The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also announced on Friday that Chinese officials will go to the G20 summit from November 14th to 17th from November 14th to 17th, and then go to Bangkok to attend the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit.Biden said at the White House press conference on Wednesday (9th) that he hopes to discuss issues including Taiwan and trade including Taiwan and trade at the G20 summit.
Biden said that he was ready to clarify the "red line" of both sides to reduce the possibility of conflict.He will try to understand what is in line with China's key national interests to ensure that it will not harm the key interests of the United States.If there is a conflict, Biden hopes that the two parties will work together to solve the problem.
Will the two sides meet this time, and does the Sino -US confrontation may be alleviated?
Huang Haitao, an associate professor of Zhou Enlai School of Government Management, China Nankai University, told Lianhe Zaobao that the current state of Sino -US relations is not satisfactory, but it seems too simplified to summarize with "confrontation".Because despite the impact of the epidemic, the business transactions, academic exchanges, and folk exchanges between China and the United States have not completely interrupted, and the foundation of Sino -US exchanges and cooperation is still deep."Regardless of whether the leaders of the two sides meet on specific occasions, seek stability relationships and prevent conflict and confrontation that fully meet each other's fundamental interests. After all, two such huge economies in China and the United States need to explore the way to get along with new conditions."
Xu Jian, assistant professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of China, believes that even if Biden and Chinese officials meet at the G20, at most, it can only show that the two countries intend to maintain the smooth communication channels and not further upgrade the confrontation between the two sides in many aspects.He believes that the United States' commitment to China is basically disappointed and has been preparing for the deterioration of US -China relations after the latest political development of China.China will not deliberately take upgrade measures, but will strive to obtain more assets, prepare for upgrading, and strive for the best strategic window with the US showdown.
Xu Jian said that it is expected that the United States will also take corresponding actions at this point. The key is to reduce the economic dependence of the United States and allies on China, and the more countries that are as much as possible from the influence of China from China.He believes that any temporarily relieve the tension between the two parties between the United States and China is only for greater strategic purposes; the basic structure of tension and conflict between the two countries cannot be resolved soon.
5
For the first time, attending Sunak's diplomatic means for the first time was tested
Biden and British Prime Minister Sonak will meet outside the G20 Summit venue.This is also the first time that Sunak attended the G20 summit as a Prime Minister.
After being elected Prime Minister, Sunak immediately responded to economic issues and restored investors' confidence. To the outside world, whether Sonc was Xiaozhi Cao Sui, followed the pace of former Prime Minister Johnson, and also treated with the United States.
Sunak opened the phone with Bayen as soon as he took office to reiterate the importance of the special relationship between the United States and Britain.Biden told Sunak that Britain is still the closest ally in the United States.Britain has always been an important ally for U.S. supporting Ukraine.Sunak called Zellennki in late October, promising that Britain would continue to support Ukraine as always and unswervingly.
Born in the financial industry, coupled with a long period of time in politics, it is generally believed that Sunak lacks diplomatic experience. Worried about whether Sunak will be troubled by internal affairs and ignore diplomacy in the future, so as to weaken the unity of the Western anti -Russian threat.
Politico commentator Hisha said that they contacted more than 10 senior US officials, think tanks and bankers, but most people had no comments on Sunak because they had never had a conversation with him beforeEssence U.S. Minister Yellen with Sunak, the two, met at the meeting of the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) meeting in 2021. At that time, Sonak was a financial minister.A source said that Sunak and Yellen established a friendly relationship, but they were also very pragmatic, but do practical things and do not have friendship.
U.S. officials expressed their hope to see Sunak and his leadership team adhere to a predictable route.
Dald, who was the United States Ambassador to NATO during the Obama's administration, said that the United States looked forward to Sonak's internal economic foundation to return to the right track.He believes that Britain's policy on Ukraine will remain unchanged. "Other aspects, Britain must be a predictable G7 partner."
Under the leadership of Sunak, how can US and British relations develop in the future?Huang Haitao said that leaders' change will not affect the goal of "Global Britain" performed after Brexit after Brexit.Therefore, the United Kingdom will further seek to strengthen the "special relationship" with the United States, and will be implemented step by step with the Indo -Pacific regional security cooperation based on the establishment of a three -sided security partnership (AUKUS) in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.Britain has not only completed the Brexit in the system, but also is working hard to complete the psychological level by intervening in Indo -Pacific Affairs.
