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Tuesday (November 8) is the voting date of the mid -term Congress in the United States. If the polls before the election are accurate, the Democratic Party will lose the control of the House of Representatives.Strong> The Senate has a suspense who controls the Quanhua. I may not be conclusive without the invoicing date, and even after the invoicing. Losing the House of Representatives will definitely affect President Biden's legislative agenda, but it is also important to keep the Senate. For the Democratic Party, as long as the Senate can be kept, the situation will be "terrible" rather than "disaster."
The US midterm elections have always been not conducive to the presidential political parties, especially the newly appointed president for the first time encountered the mid -term election. His party's occupation of a seat in Congress usually decreases.
Michael Kazin, a professor at the Department of History of Georgetown University, pointed out in a joint morning newspaper that in addition to 1934 and 2006, after the new president's party, the number of people in the House of Representatives will be reduced, and the Senate seats are usually like thisEssence
Kazaku believes that from the perspective of American political history, it is normal for the Republican Party to win in the middle of the way.
Charlie Cook, a US political analyst at the "Cook Political Report" website he founded, pointed out that the party affiliated to the new president often loses the midterm elections because it does not control the supporters of the White House party.There is the motivation to vote.At the same time, those independent voters who are not inclined to any political party usually regret their original decision after sending the president into the White House.
Increasing the crime of violence, Republican Strange Democratic Party is too weak
Before this summer, the Democratic supporters did be happy to vote, and the Republican branch holders couldn't wait.However, the US Supreme Court, led by conservative judges, overturned the jurisprudence of abortion rights to be guaranteed by the Constitution, triggering strong dissatisfaction to support the abort, and made the Democratic Party see the front line of achieved better results.
But the Democratic Party has not been happy for too long, because the inflation rate has continued to soar, making the price higher prices and the economy may fall into the hidden concerns of recession, and it has become the most concerned topic for voters.Although inflation is global, the Republican Party has grasped this, accusing Democrats accusing Democrats with a large -scale expenditure increased prices.Democrats in charge of the White House are difficult to blame the economic status. In the face of the Republican accusations, there is no power to fight, and the support has continued to decline.
In addition to the economy, the Republican Party also grasped another subject that the voters' attention -crimes and pursued the Democratic candidates.They attributed the increase in national violence crimes on Democrats "too weak" to criminals. Even the Democratic House of Representatives Paul's husband Paul, Paul, was broke into the house on October 28.Attacking to serious injuries, the Republican Party was said to be the result of the Democratic Party's too tolerant of the criminals.
Democratic voters are dissatisfied with losing abortion right
Police investigations showed that Dpapp was influenced by the online right -wing conspiracy theory and anti -Jewie.However, some Republicans and conservatives ignored the results of the investigation and spread the theory of conspiracy theory of this attack and the motivation behind.In fact, before the attack, US federal institutions and law enforcement officials had warned political violence, false information and extremism.Bloomberg listed extremism as one of the factors that may affect the results of this election.
Under the impact of many unfavorable factors, the anger of Democratic supporters and independent people on abortion rights has lost motivation during the campaign.Coupled with the dissatisfaction of voters 'performance of President Biden, and some Democratic candidates' poor performance in critical debates, the Democratic Party was in danger.
435 seats of the House of Representatives
The "Kook Political Report" without the party predicted last week that the Republican Party could win up to 25 House seats from the Democratic Party, more than 20 previously predicted.This forecast is close to historical standards; 19 mid -term elections since the Second World War, the President's party has lost an average of 25.8 House seats.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are re -elected. The Democratic Party currently accounts for 220 seats and 212 Republican parties.In the case where all seats are filled, any party must have at least 218 seats to control the House of Representatives.
The poll data aggregate website "RealclearPolitics" predicts that the Republican Party's determination and expected to win 228 seats can be controlled by the House of Representatives.Other election analysis websites are relatively cautious. "Fivethirtyeight) predicts that the Republican Party can get at least 204 seats, and the Cook's political report predicts that the Republican Party can get 212 seats.
For the Senate, the Democratic Party needs at least 50 seats to keep the control, and the Republican Party needs 51 seats to lead the Senate.
The Senate has 100 seats. At present, the two -party seats are 50 to 50. A vote in the hands of Vice President Harris can break the draw to allow the Democratic Party to control the Senate.
Candidates' disadvantages or weaken the attraction of Republican Party
The Senate re -elected more than one -third or 35 seats this year.Theoretically, as long as the Republican Party can keep all the seats currently owned, and at the same time, it can control the Senate from the Democratic Party.However, until the deadline, political predictions still believe that any party of democracy or Republican may obtain a majority seat, and one reason may be related to candidates sent by the Republican Party.
The polls announced by the New York Times and Syena College on October 31 showed that the three Senate, the three Senate of Senate in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, voters tend to let the Republican Party control the Senate, but compared to compared toRepublican candidates, they prefers the Democratic candidates.New Year said that this indicates that the shortcomings of candidates may lower the attractiveness of the Republican Party.
If the Democratic Party loses the control of the House as well as the House of Representatives, the opportunity to implement the ambitious policy will be almost zero.Except for some measures that must be passed, most of the legislation proposed by the Democratic Party will be blocked by Republican members.
The new book has won the need for victory: Kazaku, a professor of history at the University of George Demon University in the history of the Democratic Party, said in an interview that after the Democratic Party lost the control of the House of Representatives, Biden could still proposeHis legislative priority matters, but he must make a very big compromise, so that they will become omnipresent.
Who is the Senate influence the judge appointment
Since the House of Representatives is obstructive, is it necessary for the Democratic Party to control the Senate?
In fact, the majority of the Senate is still very important.Kazaku pointed out that as long as he can continue to control the Senate and all the Democratic Senators maintain unity, they can complete two major events: defeating any bill passed by the Republican House of Representatives, and confirming the appointment of Biden to the Federal Court judge.
According to the US news website VOX, as long as the Democratic Party controls the Senate, it can approve the number of regional courts, the court, the high court, and even the Supreme Court of judges with simple Senate.Because the appointment of most federal judges is lifelong, their appointment will have long -term impacts, far exceeding the government nominated.During the presidential period of Trump, the Republican Party -controlled Senate approved more than 200 judges, and many of them had key decisions of immigration policy, wearing masks, and abortion rights.
In addition, in addition to rejecting the ABC approved by the Republican House of Representatives, the Democratic Senator can also formulate its own agenda and ensure that the time of hearing and committees will not be used to investigate Biden and other government members.
So if there is a split parliament, that is, the House of Representatives returns to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party only controls the Senate, which is not the worst situation for the Democratic Party.Amy Walter, editor -in -chief of the Cook Political Report, quoted Democratic polls in an article published by the website that the division of parliament was only "terrible" for Democrats, not "disasters".
The result of disaster nature should be lost in both houses of the Democratic Party.In the case of unclear election in the Senate, everyone can only wait for the invoicing after the 8th.
35 seats will be re -elected for the Senate battlefield
The 35 Senate seats re -elected this year have at least eight seats considered competitive,
But it is generally believed that there are four key states that can control the Senate: Pennsylvania, Vestkangxing, Nevada, and Georgia.
Pennsylvania
Bayeng's 2020 presidential election won the Democratic Party to return to Pennsylvania.In 2016, the Republican Trump won Binzhou with a weak advantage, but before that, Pennsylvania had voted for Democratic candidates for six consecutive presidential elections.
This year's former Pennsylvana's former Senate retired, and the Democratic Party sent a progressive group of John Fetterman, a former TV celebrity MEHMET OZ supported by Trump.
Fittman's support rate was originally ahead of Oz, but after his stroke in May, his health was worrying; plus he spoke stutter and vaguely in his public debate on October 25th.The advantage has disappeared.
"Really clear politics" predict that the Republican Party will keep this seat.
Georgia
When Biden won Georgia in 2020, it was just the third place in Democratic Presidential candidates who had won the voter of the state.The other two were Clinton (elections in 1992) and Carter, a native of Georgia (election in 1976).
The past two election cycles show that Georgia's voting results can be very close, and this year seems to be the same.In 2020, the Federal Senate's control of Quan Hua Luo depends on the choice of Georgia voters; the history of 2022 may repeat itself.
In 2020, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won the Georgia Senate seats to assist the Democratic Party to control the Senate.
Wonker is the first black senator in Georgia, and his opponent is also black, that is, Herschel Walker, a American rugby star supported by Trump.Walker scandals are doted, but they are still supported by conservative voters.
This seat is also the third competitors from the Liberal Party. Therefore, if Walker and Volonak cannot get at least 50%of support tickets on November 8, they will have to winburden."Really clear politics" predict that this seat will enter the second round of voting.
Wisconsin Star
The Wisconsin is one of the most divided states in American voters, and the victory and defeat are usually determined by a small gap.
In 2020, Biden recaptured the Democratic Party with a gap of less than a percentage point.In 2016, Trump won the state with a weak advantage; Trump's victory broke the seven -game winning streak of the Democratic presidential candidate in Wisconsin.
The former Senator of this state is Ron Johnson of the Republican Party.It is recommended to use mouthwash to kill the coronary virus.
Johnson faces the challenge of Democratic Deputy Governor Mandela Barnes. The support rate of the campaign has lagged behind Barnes, but recent polls show that Johnson is expected to keep the seat.
Nevada
Since 1980, the presidential candidates supported by voters in Nevada have eventually entered the White House.Only in 2016, Hillary won Neva, but missed the White House.In 2020, Nevada recovered, and the supported Biden finally appeared on the president's throne, but Bayeon won Nevada with its smaller advantage than Hyri.Although the Democratic Party has won Nevada from each presidential election since 2008, their advantages are shrinking every time.
Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won the Naverda seat in 2016 and became the first Latin American senator in the United States.Now she is regarded as one of the current members of the Democratic Party's most defeated, and may be pulled off by Latin American voters.
In recent years, the status of the Democratic Party in Latin American descent has declined, partly because many Ratin -American people prefer conservative abortion and immigration policies.But the most destructive is the weak economy.Nevada relies on the tourism and gaming revenue of Las Vegas and Reno, but these income has been severely damaged in crown diseases.
Marsto faced the challenge of former state prosecutor Adam Laxalt. The two are now unpredictable, but "really clear politics" predicts that Lak Salt will win.
