International Special Special
On February 24 this year, Russia invaded Ukraine. The war lasted for seven months. When it seemed to be in a deadlock, the Ukrainian armed forces counterattacked in early September to recapture a blockbuster territory. The victory of Kiev has attracted a strong response from Moscow. The Kremlin announced some mobilization order and was ready to put 300,000 people into the battlefield, and once again threatened the use of nuclear weapons to deal with countries that attack Russian territories including Ukraine occupation areas.How to change the Russian and Ukraine War has once again attracted great attention.
Ukrainian armed forces have achieved results in Halkov and Heruson in the northeast. Western media said that this was the turning point of the Russian and Ukraine War.
Ukrainian President Zeleiski said in a political forum on September 10: "I believe this winter will be a turning point, Ukraine can quickly drive away the occupation army."
The German Defense Minister Langbrecht thought that it was too early on the 14th because Russia was not sure how Russia would react.
James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, holds the same views as Landbrahit.In an interview with Lianhe Morning Post, he said that the Russian forces may be knocked down, but they were not eliminated, and Russia still had unparalleled military power. For example, large -scale mobilization or extensive recruitment can be launched, which will bring different consequences.
Drew Thompson, a senior researcher at the State University of Singapore State University of Public Policy, believes that the turning point of this war occurred in the early days of the war.Essence"A series of mistakes of the Russian army at the time led to long -lasting consumption war, and the situation is now increasingly beneficial to Ukraine."
The Russian army directly pounded Kiev at the end of February, and the siege could not report for more than a month. Moscow announced on April 4 that the withdrawal of Kiev was announced.At that time, the international observers believed that the U -fight against the Russian army's offensive against Kiev, which prevented Moscow from quickly occupying the original plan of Kiev to support the pro -Russian regime, which delayed the war to this day.
Does Putin might use nuclear weapons?
With the control area of Russian President Putin on Wednesday (September 21), it will annex the control zone of Donetsk, Lugusk, Hermuson and Zapolo, and increase the nuclear deterrent of Ukraine and its Western allies.Show Kiev's victory prompted Moscow to decide to upgrade the war.
Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik R.Politik, said on Wednesday, "Everything that happened today -saying that the national vote is immediately held, which is absolutely clear about Russia to Ukraine and the West.Ultimatum: Either Ukraine yield or nuclear war. "
Wudong Situation Analyst Nikolaus Von Twickel wrote in the Moscow Times that Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine and NATO attack on the Russian control zone will be considered equivalent to attacking Russia, which means that Moscow wantsEstablish a legal basis to use large -scale killing weapons in Ukraine and even NATO countries.
For the issue of whether the Russian and Ukraine War would be upgraded to a nuclear war, Tang Anzhu said: "Putin is neither stupid nor crazy."
Frederick Kliem, a senior researcher at the Rajiery South International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Technology, commented on Putin in this previous interview: "I have no longer inferred Putin based on the logic of rational actors.Really use nuclear deterrent power, but nothing is impossible. "
Analyst: Putin is unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons at this stage
Duoxi believes that Putin is unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons at this stage, but this possibility cannot be ruled out."Putin has scared NATO directly involved in the war from the beginning of the war. He also once allowed nuclear weapons to be in alert. Therefore, he was at least prepared to use nuclear weapons as a deterrent ... but no one can guarantee that he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons, he will not use nuclear weapons.Especially when he has no options. "
Former American Assistant Secretary of State and former NATO Deputy Secretary -General Rose Gottemoeller recently said in an interview with BBC that she did not think that Russia would launch intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying nuclear warheads, but was more worried about tactical nuclear weapons.The Russian army may detonate a tactical nuclear weapon over the Black Sea or Ukrainian military facilities.
Tactical nuclear weapons refers to those weapons with relatively small equivalent.Nuclear weapon equivalent refers to the energy released after the nuclear weapon explosion. It is usually measured by the tonnage of tritenopylene (TNT) that releases the same energy. Common units include Kiloton and MEGATON.Taking the US B61-12 nuclear weapon as an example, if the tactical purpose is used, its equivalent can be reduced to 0.3,000 tons of TNT, which is about one-fif-in 50 to destroy the equivalent of Hiroshima atomic bomb.In comparison, the equivalent volume of the Tianjin Port hazardous chemical warehouse explosion in 2015 was equivalent to 0.445,000 tons of TNT. In 2020, the equivalent of the bombing of Barut Port in Lebanese was between 0.3 and 1,000 tons of TNT.
However, military observer believes that Putin must consider the consequences before deciding to use tactical nuclear weapons. For example, whether the Ukraine people surrender or strengthen their determination to prevent Russia, what reactions will there be in the Western countries and even the Moscow allies China and India.Putin recently rarely recognized China's concerns about China and India's concerns about the Russia and U -iter War at the Press Conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of Uzbekistan.
Economists point out that any decision to break the taboo will endanger the relationship between Russia and China and India.The nuclear blow to Ukraine may also lead to the most unwanted consequences of Putin -Western countries send troops to deal with radioactive substances into Ukraine.
How can Russian mobilization affect the war?
The defeat of the Russian army in Halkov prompted the Kremlin's decision to speed up the control zone of Donetsk, Lugusk, Hermuson, and Zapolo.The Kremlin government announced on Tuesday that the puppet government in these four control areas announced on Tuesday that it will hold a referendum to join the Russian Federation from September 23rd to 27th.The next day, Russian President Putin made a television speech, announcing support for the support of the pro -Russian region in Ukraine to enter the Russian referendum, and issued a part of the mobilization order to recruit 300,000 reserve personnel to join the army.
This is the first military mobilization of Russia after the Second World War. It marks that the Russian and Ukraine War has experienced a major upgrade, and it may even detonate a larger -scale war.Western observer believes that Putin's mobilization order will extend the war, but it remains to be observed how much a positive role will bring to the battle.
According to the Moscow Times, Dara Massicot, an expert from the Russian military of the American Think Tank, pointed out that mobilizing reserve personnelThe long process of dense resources is unlikely to have any direct impact on the battle.Even if these troops are prepared, Moscow may only deploy them to perform relatively simple tasks, such as keeping defensive positions.They are unlikely to help Moscow achieve the military goals that occupy the entire Donbass region.
Mascott said: "In the short term, Russia can mobilize personnel to play a role similar to infantry, but this is to maintain, not offensive."
Liana Fix, head of the International Affairs Plan of the German Colbo Foundation, and Michael Kimmage, a professor of History at the University of Catholic University, published in the next step of Putin's next step in U.S. Magazine's foreign affairs.The mobilization order will disrupt the cautious management of the Crimlin's psychological psychology in the country.
Mobilization order "How to leave Russia" after the issuing order
Before Putin issued some mobilization orders, the Russian and Ukraine War was not related to most Russians.After the mobilization order was issued, Moscow's stock exchange market plummeted and the departure air tickets were sold out. "How to leave Russia" became a hot search word, showing that many Russians finally realized that they did not want to fight a war that they did not recognize.
Fx and Kimaki pointed out in the article that Putin has still insisted that the invasion of Ukraine has been a "special military operation" so far, but with the mobilization of 300,000 reserve personnel to join the army, it means that the Kremlin PalaceIt is necessary to change the scale of war, and it is difficult for many Russians to care about it.
"Under the education of the Putin regime, the Russians have been separated from politics and now they must mobilize emotionally. They will have to accept the facts that their father, brothers and sons may die on the battlefield.The large -scale attitude change can easily cause people to dislike Putin. "
They also reminded that mobilization marks the re -determination of the Russian leadership, and avoid failure at all costs, including the weakening of domestic support.If Putin go all out, Western countries will have to evaluate his mental state and the possibility of major military upgrades again.
Hong Kong senior commentator Du Ping believes that the four regions of Ukraine are held in Russia's referendum, which is a sign of the Russian and Ukraine War to enter the decisive battle stage.If these four regions become part of Russian territory, Russia can declare that special military operations in Ukraine have achieved or even surpass their initial goals."This does not mean that the Russian and Ukraine war comes to an end. On the contrary, the fierceness of the war will be significantly upgraded. Ukraine must launch a counterattack, and the NATO will definitely support Ukraine to recapture these areas.The strength of military operations, so the future war is a deadly fight. "
Du Ping pointed out that in the past seven months, the Russian control zone of Donetsk, Lugusk and Hermuson has repeatedly demanded public investment in Russia, but Moscow has not made up his mind.Recently, Ukraine's counterattack operations are quite effective, and morale is strong. Moscow has to determine to achieve two purposes through the referendum: one is to remove the fruit first, and the other is to re -designate the border between Russia and Ukraine.If Kiev continues to attack these regions, Moscow regards it as an attack on Russian territory, and it can take any form of military strikes on Ukraine, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons in extreme cases.The Russian Parliament amended the military service law and Putin issued some mobilization orders to prepare for this situation.
"Judging from the above -mentioned situations, due to the recent counterattack operation of Ukraine, Russia was frustrated, and Russia was in a defensive. The Putin government finally settled and decided to consume it for a long time.
From this, Putin's "special military operation" on Ukraine will be upgraded to the "Land Defense War".
The war of war is not determined to affect geopolitics
TheThe Russian and Ukraine War was unrequited, and Putin once again threw a nuclear deterrence, which made the rapid changes in geopolitical geographical politics around Central Asia, Caucasus and Eastern Europe around Russia.The European Union, the United States, and China are seizing the sphere of influence of Russia. If Russia will eventually lose its influence on regional geopolitics for Ukraine, it is likely to lose money.
First of all, Finland and Sweden, which had maintained military neutrality, have decided to apply to join NATO.They saw a nuclear martial arts unscrupulously waving a stick to a small neighbor country so that they realized that they must rely on NATO's umbrella.The reason for Putin's invasion of Ukraine was to prevent NATO from further eastward, but pushed the NATO border to the border between Ryfen.
Dorcy pointed out that Russia focuses on the war in Ukraine, so that there are room for other countries to intervene in the surrounding countries.
Avaloid and Azerbaijan in the Gaomoto region broke out in the middle of September, and Armenia died more than 100 soldiers.Armenian Prime Minister Pasinan wants to start Article 4 of the collective security treaty, asking Russia and other contractors to assist Armenia against Azerbaijan, but was rejected by Putin.The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the conflict between Asia and Aza must be resolved through political and diplomatic means.The demonstrators of Armenia's capital Elimin demanded that they were simply separated from the collective safety treaty organization.
Four days after the conflict between the Asian border, Perosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States, visited Armenia, saying that the United States was ready to provide necessary assistance to Armenia at any time.The Chinese media said that Perlis's trips to Russia and Armenia's attempts are obvious.
Duoxi also said that Russia has always regarded Russia to Central Asia and former Soviet franchisees as the backyard, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, none of the Central Asian countries came out to support Moscow. Kazakhstan even expressed strong dissatisfaction. This is for Russia.It is a setback.
Another larger and longer change is the relationship between Russia and China.Dorti pointed out that Russia is regarded as a big country that can be equal to the United States and China, but he believes that after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, China and Russia are no longer two equal partners, and Russia will become small partners.
He said: "In China -Russia relations, Russia usually provides security in Central Asia and Caucasus, and China provides economic construction.Training shows that China has begun to play a role in the safety field of Central Asia. "
