Analysts believe that unless the catastrophic military misjudgment occurs, the Ukraine is unlikely to collapse completely, and Zelei is unlikely to accept any prevention of Ukraine from recovering Crimi to recover Crimi.Asian negotiated negotiations.
(Paris Comprehensive) Russia invaded Ukraine on Wednesday (August 24) for six months. Although both sides have suffered huge life and property losses, they do not seem to consider the ceasefire.The battle of the field.Analysts believe that it is difficult for both sides to win, and the war may be dragged on for several years.
Moscow's political analyst Karajolv pointed out that the Russian side hopes to win by weakening the Ukraine, and the protracted war is not good for Ukraine, "its economy may collapse."
Du Mulin, director of the European Foreign Relations Commission, said that the strong support of Western in Ukraine made it more difficult for both Russia and Ughal."Both sides think they can still play military advantages, so this situation is unlikely to end quickly."
Russian President Putin also depicts this conflict as one of Russia's resistance to NATO expansion, so any "failure" is unacceptable.Putin may advance to Odessa, the main port of Ukraine, strengthen the siege and restrict exports, and punish Ukraine to be more closely integrated into the EU.
Ukrainian President Zelezky may seek more tactical success, like sinking the Moscow missile cruiser in April, or trying back to recapture some territories.
Du Mulin said: "He can re -inspire the Ukrainian army and society and prove that it is reasonable to ask European partners to provide more assistance."
The people of the Ukraine support the government highly depend on Western help
However, the military hardware and intelligence provided by Europe and the United States can only slow down but cannot prevent the Russian offensive on the coast of the Russian army in Wudong and the Black Sea, and Zeelianzki has not been able to obtain more advanced and powerful weapons.
Researcher Menik, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, said: "The people of Ukraine are united and supported by the government, but this stable high depends on the West to help Ukraine in this war."
If you face fuel shortage, power or heating interruption, and other difficulties in winter, especially if more people escape from their homes due to the war, Ukraine's determination to unite the enemy will be tested.
How to end this war depends to a large extent on whether the Western support for Ukraine can persist, especially if voters of various countries believe that costs (increased fuel and food prices, etc.) become too high.
Du Mulin said: "The West may be tired one day, which gives Putin a chance to promote Western leaders to put pressure on Ukraine and require Ukraine to end the conflict according to the conditions of Russia."
The International Monetary Fund Organization will drop the global economic growth forecast
Analysts also believe that unless a disaster military misjudgment occurs, the Ukraine is unlikely to collapse completely, and Zelezki is unlikely to accept any negotiations to prevent Ukraine from recovering Crimean.
Analysts expect Russia to see the comprehensive effect of international sanctions within five years.If Western countries continue to provide assistance and weapons for Ukraine, the advantages of the Russian army may gradually weaken.This may threaten Putin's domestic support, catalytic opposition power before the presidential election in March 2024.
On the other hand, the global economy should have recovered from the crown disease epidemic this year, but the six -month -old Russia and Ukraine war caused people to worry about the economy that may fall into recession.
The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly reduced the forecast of global economic growth rates, from nearly 5 % to 3.2 % today.The inflation rate in various places is also soaring, prompting the central banks of various countries to raise interest rates.
However, given that the European and American labor market is still strong, the main predicting agencies still believe that the world is unlikely to fall into economic recession.
