There are strong signs that the United States and Britain are preparing to cancel the restrictions on the use of long -range missiles in Ukraine to attack the targets of Russia.Ukraine has been requested for several weeks.
So why did Western countries reluctant to relieve this limit, and what impact can these missiles have on the war?
What is the "Storm Shadow" cruise missile?
Storm Shadow is a cruise missile developed by Britain and France, with a maximum range of about 250 kilometers (155 miles).The French call the "SCALP EG" (SCALP EG ".
It was launched from the aircraft, and then fastened the terrain at a speed close to the speed, and finally fell and detonated its high explosive warhead.
The "Storm Shadow" missile is considered an ideal weapon to penetrate the solid bunker and ammunition library.Russia used bunkers and ammunition libraries in the war against Ukraine.
But the cost of each missile is nearly $ 1 million (£ 767,000), so they are often part of the offensive of careful planning.First of all, a large number of cheaper drones lead the air defense system to confuse and consume the enemy.Russia had previously adopted this strategy to Ukraine.
Britain and France have transported these missiles to Ukraine, but there is a prerequisite use condition, that is, Kiev can only launch the missile in the target of the country.
The use of these missiles has played a good effect, hitting the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, making the entire Crimea unsafe for the Russian Navy.Former British Army officer, Sibylline CEO and military analyst Justin Crump, said that the "Storm Shadow" missile is a very effective weapon for UkraineIt can accurately combat the target of good protection in the territory.
"It's not surprising, Kiev has lobbying to use this weapon in Russia, especially to combat (Russian) airport for launching a gliding bomb attack. This kind of attack has recently hindered the front line of Ukraine." He saidEssence
Why does Ukraine want missile now?
Ukrainian cities and front lines are suffering from Russia bombing every day.
Many missiles and gliding bombs caused by the damage to Ukraine's military positions, residential areas and hospitals were launched deep in Russian aircraft in their territory.
Kiev complained that the attack that is not allowed to crack down on these bases is equivalent to making it a hand in this war.
At the Globsec I participated in Prague this month, some people even said that due to these restrictions, Russian military bases have better protected than Ukraine civilians.
Ukraine does have its own innovative and effective long -range drone projects.
Sometimes, these drone attacks will be caught off guard Russia and even go deep into the country hundreds of kilometers.But they can only carry a small valid load, and most of them are found and intercepted.
Kiev believes that it requires remote missiles to repel Russia's air strikes, including the "Storm Shadow" missile and the US "Army Tactical Missile System" (ATACMS), which is even farther a range of 300 kilometers.
Why did the West hesitate?
In a word to cover it: worry about the situation upgrade.
Washington is worried that although all red lines that Russia President Vladimir Putin threatened so far is proven to be bluffing, it may allow Ukraine to use the missiles provided by the West to strike the target of Russia and may push Putin to the edge of revenge.
The White House is worried that the Kremlin's hardliners may bring these missiles to the transit station (such as the Air Force Base in Poland) on the way to Ukraine.
If this happens, Article 5 of the NATO charter will be triggered, which means that NATO will fight against Russia.
Since Russia's full invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the White House's goal has always provided as much support for Kiev without being involved in directly conflicting with Moscow. Otherwise, it may cause unimaginable imagination.Disaster nuclear war.
What changes can the "Storm Shadow" missile bring?
The delivery of these missiles may bring some changes, but it may be too late.Kiev has been required to use long -range missiles in Western countries in Russia for a long time. Moscow has taken preventive measures to prevent restrictions from being canceled.
Moscow has moved bombers, missiles and some infrastructure that maintains them to more backward places, staying away from the Russian and Ukraine border, and beyond the range of "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles.
However, Carenp, the Cymbalin consulting company, said that although Russia's air defense system has developed to the threat of the "Storm Shadow" missile in Ukraine, considering that Moscow may be attacked now, thisTasks will become more difficult.
"This will make it more difficult to implement military logistics, command control and air support. Even if the Russian aircraft further withdrew from the Ukrainian border to avoid the threat of missiles, the time and costs of each flight to the front line will still increase."Cranp said.
Matthew Savill, director of Milk Savill, Director of the Royal Institute (Rusi), believes that lifting restrictions will bring two great benefits to Ukraine.
First of all, it may "unlock" another system, that is, the US "Army Tactical Missile System".
Secondly, it will put Russia in a dilemma and do not know where to deploy valuable air defense systems.He said that this may make Ukraine's drones easier to pass.
However, Savier added that the "Storm Shadow" missile was unlikely to reverse the situation.