On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the Fed announced that 50 basis points were reduced sharply, which was the first time to cut interest rates in more than four years, and the target range was reduced by 4.75%to 5%.
The Hong Kong HKMA announced on Wednesday (18th) in the morning of Hong Kong time (18th) that the basic interest rate was reduced by 0.5 % to 5.25 %, which took effect immediately.Chen Maobo, director of the Hong Kong Financial Secretary, said that when the rate of interest rates of the United States and the Hong Kong interest rate also reduced, it will be beneficial to the operation of Hong Kong enterprises and have a positive impact on the asset market.
The United States started the interest rate hike cycle due to inflation in March 2022. During the period, it raised interest rates 11 times. Until the last interest rate hike in July 2023, the fund interest rate target range remained between 5.25%and 5.5%.Under the underlying exchange rate of hooking with the US dollar in Hong Kong, Hong Kong interest rates often change with the US interest rate policy. Therefore, in the past two years of the interest rate hike cycle in the past two years, Hong Kong also followed the trend.
After three years of epidemic, Hong Kong's economy has continued to be sluggish, and the economic recovery after the epidemic is far less expected.Under the high -interest environment, the cost of borrowing from banks will also rise. Whether it is consumer or investment decisions, it will also be prudent, and at the same time, it will also be unable to repay loans.According to data from the Bankruptcy Management Agency, there were 871 cases in the bankruptcy in May this year, an increase of about 35%year -on -year, the highest since April 2022.
Some economists have said that the United States is a symbolic significance of minimum interest rate reductions. It needs to be observed depending on the subsequent interest rate reduction.The outside world is also expected that the interest rate reduction can help Hong Kong's economic recovery speed. In addition to bringing support to the property market, it can also reduce the cost of corporate financing.
The suffering of small and medium -sized enterprises
In the past year, the bank approves the loosening of loans and whether the borrower has been "CALL LOAN" (requiring early repayment) has become one of the focus of the discussion.Among them, the owner of the minibus also chose to "disconnect" (suspension of supply) due to economic downturn and minibus prices, and facing the situation of non -debt.
Mr. Jiang, who has been in the minibus industry for more than 40 years and has seven minibus itself. Due to the difficulty of operating in the small bus industry, there is no sign of improvement in the future.Give the bank.Mr. Jiang said that since the expansion of the Hong Kong Railway network, it has a great impact on the Passenger capacity of the minibus. In addition, after the epidemic has risen, the gap in operating costs has not been filled when the income declines.Leave the scene under the case.
Mr. Jiang bought a minibus license at a value of about 3 million Hong Kong dollars more than 3 million Hong Kong dollars more than a decade ago. In 2011, it was the peak of the Pakistani license price.However, it has been falling since it has been. According to the data, the latest brand price is about 600,000 to 1 million yuan, which has fallen by more than 90 % compared to the peak period.
He refers to the monthly payment of each minibus about 20,000 yuan, in other words, the monthly payment is about 140,000.He pointed out that in a high -interest environment, although it has also had an impact on its repayment, after the epidemic, the income that passed the passenger capacity was reduced and the earnings of earnings could not fill the rising operating costs, which also made him difficult for him to afford the debt. "Even if it isNow I can't afford low interest rates and restless repayment. "
Mr. Jiang's situation is also reflected in different small and medium -sized enterprises.
A survey released by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce in August this year shows that the business situation of nearly 77%of small and medium -sized enterprises in Hong Kong failed to recover to the level before the epidemic.The biggest problem is that nearly half of the company believes that financing is difficult.During the epidemic, the government once launched the "100%guarantee loan of small and medium -sized enterprises", and Qiu Yinghua, director of the Business and Economic Development Bureau, said in August that at the time, it was approved by more than 140 billion yuan, the bad debt rate reached 9.2%, and the government had 13.2 billion yuan of bad debts.Essence
Also in August, the HKMA and the Hong Kong Banking Association announced the joint establishment of the "SME Financing Specialty Group" to solve the difficulties encountered by individual small and medium -sized enterprises in the financing process.
Zhong Zhenjie, the founder of SECRET Tour Hong Kong, a local small and medium -sized advertising company, told that because the cash flow of its company does not need to pay the funds through the loan, the operating pressure is small.The client has become more and more tightened in terms of budget, "the business is less than two to 30 % less after the customs clearance."
Pagoda think tank co -founder and economic research director, and ORIENTIS chief economist Xu Jiajian said in an interview that under the high -interest environment, the financing cost of enterprises will increaseTherefore, both large enterprises or small and medium -sized enterprises are in a difficult situation.
Xu Jiajian also pointed out that under the repayment of the "SME financing guarantee plan", the company has recently begun to be repaid.When the economy is helpful, they (enterprises) will be able to repay.People borrow more money "
The property market will stop falling?
The industry that is most directly affected by interest rate hikes is the real estate market. Due to the rise in borrowing interest rates, the cost of borrowing and loans to buy a house will also increase. As a result, the cost of the entire home property will increase, which will reduce the demand for home property, thereby constitutes the composition of the Hong Kong property market.Pressure has led to a decline in the overall real estate transaction volume and price.
Data of the Rathemato Property Office show that the price index of the private residential price index fell 1.7%in the first five months of this year, and property prices fell 23.1%from the peak of the property price in September 2021.According to data, the overall building and selling contract registration (including residential, parking spaces, and industrial and commercial shop properties) has recorded about 58,000 yuan and the registration amount is 477.9 billion yuan from early 2024.
Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman and Vice President of the Asia -Pacific District of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said in an interview that under the influence of the interest rate hike cycle in the past two years, the trading volume of first -hand and second -hand residential buildings has been in a downward trend.Compared with the high level, the current transaction volume is about 30 %, "natural business will be poor." He said that for the real estate agency industry, the decline in property prices and transactions brought a double blow.The decline in price will also reduce the total commissions. "It belongs to a very bad situation in these decades, and the maintenance time is quite long."
Chen Yongjie explained that under the environment of high interest rates, many citizens or investors will choose to deposit funds in the bank for high -interest deposits to collect interest on interest. "The attraction of regular deposits in these two years is greater than buying more than buying.The return of rent collection and the decline in property prices when the economy is not good, and the guests choose to make regular deposits. "
Shi Yongqing, founder of Zhongyuan Group, told that in the past, Hong Kong had also had high interest and economy. At that time, property prices were on the rise.It is because of the exchange rate to follow the US interest rate policy. "It becomes a factor of pure interest, and there is no factors for good economy."
On the other hand, although the volume and price of residential buildings have declined, it has risen in terms of rental market, forming a phenomenon of "decline in property prices and continuous rent in rent".According to the rent index announced by the Renxia Price Administration, the rent index in June this year isAt 189, it increased by about 8.1%from the lowest level in January 2023.In the past, the rising rents index will attract more funds to buy real estate to collect rental returns. Shi Yongqing believes that people are currently relatively confident in the prospects.
Bu Shaoming, Chief Executive Officer of the United Property and Housing Department, said in an interview that the interest rate hike cycle increased the pressure on the supply of some owners who chose to float -interest mortgage, because the interest rate of interest will float with the interest rate policy.The low position has increased by 40 %. "He believes that with the increase in the burden of contributions, in addition to the decline in the intention of new buyers to enter the market, it also affects the condition of the consumer retail market.
Bu Shaoming believes that in the case of the decline in property prices, "consumption will reduce food and shrink food, and the increase in supply will increase the burden, which will also control consumption and diet."He pointed out that in a high -interest environment, in addition to impact on property prices, he also indirectly damaged the overall economy.
Bu Shaoming believes that if the United States starts the interest rate reduction cycle, I believe that the volume of buildings will increase. "Because the payment of houses that may buy a house will be cheaper than renting a house, I believe property prices will gradually stabilize." Except forIn addition to interest rate policies, whether property prices can stop falling, or even rising from decline. Bu Shaoming refers to the overall economic environment of Hong Kong and mainland China.
What does interest rate reduction mean to China and Asia
In the past two years, the US dollar has continued to strengthen due to the interest rate hike cycle. Xu Jiajian said that this has also driven the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate with the US dollar.After the epidemic switch, many Hong Kong people chose to travel overseas or go north to consume in north, and the consumption of consumption in Hong Kong is reduced. Xu Jiajian believes that it is also related to the direction of the exchange rate. "Because of the relatively speakingJapan is very cheap, and it is cheap to consume in the north. "
However, in the past period of time, the strong trend of the US dollar has also caused many funds to flow into the United States. As the interest rate reduction starts, it may further narrow the interest difference between the United States and Asia, and the funds may return to the Asian or Chinese marketPossibility.The letter reported earlier reports that Hong Yan, the chief economist of Sirui Group, expects that the US interest rate reduction will lead to at least 400 billion to 500 billion US dollars funds from overseas to the Chinese market.
Xu Jiajian believes that during the US interest rate hike, the exchange rate of the RMB relative to the US dollar is weak. If the interest rate reduction may change, it will affect China's exports, and the strong RMB will also have the opportunity to attract funds to return.On the other hand, although China's monetary policy does not follow the United States, Xu Jiajian believes that with the interest rate reduction of the United States and the narrowing of the interest difference between the two countries, the central bank has also increased room for further interest rate reduction.According to the announcement of the People's Bank of China authorized by the National Bank of the Bank, the loan market quotation rate in August this year was 3.35%, and 3.85%of 5 years or more.
He pointed out that in the past in the US interest rate hike cycle, China also tried to stimulate the economy through a loose monetary policy. If the United States entered the rate of interest rate reduction, China has a larger space for interest rates to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economy to promote the economyThe pace of recovery, "It will affect the RMB exchange rate in the future."
As for the Asian region, Xu Jiajian believes that Japan has adopted a relatively different direction. "When everyone says that the interest rates are reduced, Japan is in turn to raise interest rates."He pointed out that this may make the trend of the Japanese yen rise, coupled with the rise in Japan's inflation and the trend of the stock market, the change of external demand may affect the Japanese economy, "it may feel expensive to buy Japan."
Japanese Minister of Finance, Suzuki Suzuki, also said in August this year that he will closely watch the impact of US interest rate reduction on the Japanese economy. He believes that it will affect the Japanese economy through various ways, including external needs and overseas prices.
