Chinese communications giant Huawei suddenly launched a new smartphone at the end of August, equipped with a 7 -nanometer chip that is said to be a domestic 7 -nanometer, which has a network speed of 5G, which caused a shock in the American political circles.What are the far -reaching impacts of China's breakthrough in 7 nano -chip technology?How will Washington respond?
China Communications Giant Huawei suddenly launched the new Mate 60 Pro smartphone at the end of August this year.More than a week later, Huawei pre -sale two more new mobile phones. Four years after the Sino -US science and technology war started, it released signals that may return to the 5G mobile phone market.
Multi -party evaluation shows that Huawei's new mobile phone is equipped with a 7 -nanometer chip made by SMIC in China, the largest chip manufacturer, and has a network speed of 5G, which is regarded as a major technological breakthrough in Huawei.This caused a shock in the US politics, not only began to review whether there was a loophole in the technical blockade of China.
China -US chip war began in 2019. At that time, US President Trump included a number of technology companies such as Huawei and its chip design company Hisilicon on the grounds of national security.The companies on the top provide products and technology.The U.S. Department of Commerce blocked Huawei twice in 2020, announcing that it would prevent Huawei from supplying chips globally, and to prevent Huawei from obtaining American chips through third parties.
After the Bayeng government came to power, further strengthened the encirclement of China in the chip field, from equipment technology to talent, and blocking the upgrade of Chinese chips in all aspects.
Huawei has occupied the top three global smartphone shipments since 2015. However, after US sanctions, mobile phone technology development and sales have been severely hit. In 2021, mobile phone shipments decreased by 81.6 % to 35 million units year -on -year.At the end of last year, it was reported that Huawei has used high -end chip inventory of smartphones and may be forced to withdraw from the global smartphone market.
Huawei new mobile phones and domestic chips, which are born in the sky, triggered a lively discussion of China from breaking through the United States from science and technology.Techinsights and Bloomberg, a well -known semiconductor industry observation agency, and Bloomberg. Most of the Huawei new mobile phone components are made by Chinese, except for pop -up memory from SK Hemiliation, South Korea;Process Kirin 9000S.
The meaning of China ’s break through the 7 -nanometer chip
Dr. Wu Lingxiang, a technical industry consultant and the CEO of the Science and Technology Think Tank, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that semiconductors are the current main battlefield of the Sino -US Science and Technology War. The importance is that the chip is the basis of many other scientific and technological competition, including artificial intelligence.China ’s breakthrough 7 -nanometer chip technology means that it has achieved“ a major breakthrough ”in the chip battle, and it has also allowed other domestic scientific research and production and research fields to develop in China.
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations of Nanjing University, said in an interview that the United States adopted the new Cold War in the United States to meet the new cold war and meet the geographical strategic interests and needs through restricting technology and market;It is expected to replace Apple in 2019, but it has been fully targeted in the United States.
Zhu Feng evaluated that the advent of Huawei's chip showed a large extent that Huawei's toughness and innovation power was not disabled because of US sanctions. "The symbolic significance is still very clear."
Zhu Feida, an associate professor of the School of Computing and Information Systems of Singapore Management University, also said in an interview that in the face of the full blockade of the United States and allies, Huawei has only relying on its own power.The United States has basically achieved independent domestic production and speed.
The new Huawei mobile phones born under the surround of technology in the United States not only ignited the pride of the Chinese nation, but also known as the "gas machine" by Chinese netizens.The Chinese official media has published a social comment the next day that Huawei mobile phones have been forced to resume out of the rivers and lakes after three years, which is enough to prove that "the limit of the United States has failed."
When Huawei released a new mobile phone, Raymondo, who led Huawei in the US entity list, was visiting China. Chinese netizens were ridiculed to be the best spokesperson for Huawei's new mobile phones.
Zhu Feida judged that after a few years by the United States, Huawei chose to sell high -end new models without a notice during the visit to China in Raymond."Very big heart -hearted agent" shows that China can break through the scientific and technological congestion that Western Union is in China.
The gap between China -US chip process
However, Zhu Feng also pointed out that it is currently emphasizing that China has completely had the ability to break through the United States to block the target of the United States.
Whether the 7 -nanometer chip produced by SMIC is 100 % domestic, it is still the focus of public opinion.The Voice of Germany quoted Yang Ruilin, a research director of the International Institute of Overcare of the Taiwan Institute of Industry and Research, analyzed that SMS chips are still likely to be used in American technology because almost all of the electronic design automation tools (EDA) necessary for the chip production process are from the United States; imports from the NetherlandsThe old deep ultraviolet light carvings (DUV) semiconductor manufacturing equipment may also have American components.
Zhu Feida admits that China currently mainly uses technological innovation to simulate the high -end effect of low -end chips, and the 7 -nanometer chip may not have reached 100 % of them.However, he expects that China may only need to reach the chip process of developed countries for three or five years or even shorter.
Liu Peizhen, director of the production and economic database of Taiwan Economic Research Institute, analyzed in the interview that Huawei's chip may currently use DUV for multiple exposure, so as to create a 7 -nanometer chip yield of about 50 %, it can reach a certain production scale.However, if you want to create a more precise 5 -nanometer chip, the yield of multiple exposure will be "very unsatisfactory" and the output will be very low.
Some public opinion believes that China may currently make 7 -nanometer chip regardless of cost.Wang Pingcai, deputy dean of the China Institute of Economics, analyzed in TV programs that the 7 -nanometer chip was repeatedly exposed with DUV, and the yield must be 70 % to 80 % to make money.
Liu Peizhen judged that China is currently in the advanced process and the elements that can use the production of 7 nanometer chips have "come to the limit". It is expected that it may take at least five years to catch up with the international leading chip process.
Wu Lingxiang believes how long it will take China to tie the US chip technology unclear, because the semiconductor industry chain of the production of chips is long and complicated.Faced with the increasingly stricter science and technology enclosure in the United States, China must establish every link in the semiconductor industry chain to be independent. "There are no shortcomings. "
He pointed out that the largest part of China is currently behind the optical machine and must get the most advanced extremely ultraviolet light carved machine (EUV) in order to produce 5 nanometer, 3 nanometers, or even 2 nanometer chips required for the highest -end mobile phones.During China ’s overtaking, the United States and allies have also improved in advanced packaging and other technologies,“ so it ’s difficult to estimate”.
Sino -US Science and Technology War Tower increases
China has significantly improved its counterattack in the scientific and technological war this year.In May, Beijing requires domestic key information infrastructure operators to stop purchasing products from US chip manufacturers Micron.
Although the Chinese market only accounted for 11 % of Meiguang's overall revenue last year, the news of the blocked was still led to a 6.8 % decline in the company's stock price, the largest decline since November last year.
China also took counter -control measures in the chip war in August, and implemented export controls on key metal raw materials of 镓 and 锗 锗 锗 锗.
Taiwan expert Liu Peizhen evaluated that the Sino -US Science and Technology War has entered the 2.0 stage this year. From the past four years, it has been overwhelmed by China in chip warfare, and it has transformed into more obvious counterattacks in Beijing.
Liu Peizhen analyzed that the biggest bargaining chips in China's scientific and technological war lies in the huge market demand accounting for as high as 30 % of global semiconductor demand, but it has not been available in the market without alternative products, and this card cannot be used in the past four years.
She pointed out that after the advent of Huawei chips, let Beijing began to have the courage to try to disable Apple mobile phones in government units. This action has limited impact, which means that it is more of the United States.
The Wall Street Journal quoted the person familiar with the matter last week that China banned government staff from using Apple mobile phones during his work.As soon as the news came out, Apple's stock price fell more than 6 % compared with the opening of September 6, and the market value shrunk by about 190 billion US dollars (S $ 258.3 billion).
China is the third largest market for Apple, accounting for 19 % of the company's total revenue of $ 394 billion last year.Martin Yang, an analyst of an investment company Obonhaimo, estimates that due to Huawei's launch of new mobile phones, Apple's mobile phone shipments in 2024 may decrease by 10 million units.
Zhu Feida evaluated that Huawei's mobile phone performance is not far from Apple. At this time, Beijing's disable Apple has a relatively good mass foundation, which will not cause great dissatisfaction or rebound in the public. Therefore, it may dare to play this card.This is also to make the United States see how much impact the Chinese market can have on American merchants, including letting Apple's stock price fall, "it is also given a little color."
Zhu Feng reminded that if China and the United States excessive security, China and the United States will make the confrontation between the two countries more intense and even out of control.
He said that Beijing is currently a big test on how to avoid excessive safety. While facing the United States, it is necessary to further stabilize market investment and show an attitude towards the open cooperation between world business and trade.
Failure to export restrictions in the United States?
After Huawei suddenly released the "most powerful Mate mobile phone in history", the US Congress immediately asked to investigate whether it violated the US chip ban.The US Department of Commerce also announced the official investigation of Huawei mobile phone chips, and it is likely to further tighten technological sanctions on Huawei and SMIC.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China responded on September 8 that sanctions are determined and capable of only strengthening China's self -reliance and technological innovation.
Wu Lingxiang believes that the United States has continuously invested forces to gradually upgrade to China Technology. After four years, it has not successfully suppressed China to break the 7 -nanometer chip.The "phased failure" of curbing China's strategy.
However, Zhu Feng and Zhu Feida have pointed out that the semiconductor war launched by the United States to China "cannot be said to be completely failed." The export restriction strategy in the past four years has obviously slowed down the pace of Beijing's development of artificial intelligence and high -end chips, and also made the pace of artificial intelligence and high -end chips.Huawei has fallen out of the top eight in global high -end mobile phones, and other Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are facing chip shortages.
Zhu Feng said: "It is very frankly that the effect of the United States' pain in the field of technology has begun to appear, and we must face this fact."
The US "Courtyard High Wall" strategy is questioned again
The American "Courtyard High Wall" strategy for the siege of China ’s science and technology has recently been questioned by some Western think tanks and companies.Lewis, an expert in the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS), pointed out that once the ban is fully promoted, it is uncertain whether it can strive for the United States for one or two years to expand its scientific and technological advantages, but this will not prevent Huawei from seeking alternatives.
The chief executive officer of the Dutch Light Carrving Giant, Wen Ningke, said in a TV program this month that technological blockade to China to the West may be futile."There is no hope for completely isolation in China. If we do not share technology, they will study by ourselves."
Zhu Feida evaluated that the United States' cards in the hands of the Chinese chip war are "not much left", and sanctions may also reach bottlenecks.Once the United States strengthens export restrictions, it must be worse for chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, which will not only decrease significantly due to losing the Chinese market, but also excess production capacity.
Tianfeng International Analyst Guo Ming ?? In social media X (formerly known as Twitter), the US chip giant Qualcomm will become the main loser. It is expected that Huawei will use Kirin 9000S chip next yearIt will be reduced by 50 million to 60 million.Earlier, Qualcomm has always provided 4G chips to Huawei, and its 60 % revenue also comes from the Chinese market.
Zhu Feida pointed out that after the United States opened the "box" of export restrictions during the Trump period, China and the United States have no degree to return to the past. Even if the United States relaxs export restrictions, China will not stop the pace of independent research and development.It makes sense to make the US adjustment strategy.
Nevertheless, Zhu Feida expects that in the face of US companies that may upgrade the pressure on the Bayeon government in the future, the United States may not be able to significantly increase its strength to China very much, and it may even slowly go in the direction of letting go.
Liu Peizhen analyzed that in the chip war against China, the most important ace in the United States is actually still the most important element of global production semiconductors, which has also become an effective chip to attract allies to restrain China.
She pointed out that in order to reduce the damage to the interests of domestic semiconductor companies, the United States has been loose and tight in the past few years.China.The Biden government is expected to review and comprehensively strengthen the export control of China in the past few years. At the same time, it will continue to attract other allies to fight together.Essence
Zhu Feng judged that after the advent of the Huawei chip, the United States' technology towards China will only become more and more stricter, and it may shift from the "small courtyard high wall" to the "large courtyard wide wall" andgetting bigger.
