Former Prime Minister of Thailand, Daxin won the amnesty of the Thai king. The sentence from eight years to one year is reminiscent of the former Prime Minister Najib, who is also in prime minister for corruption.The fate of the two was similar, both of which were former Prime Minister, both stepped down and convicted for corruption.The difference is that today's UMNO is far less influenced in Malaysia's politics than the position of the Thai party in Thailand.Is Najib, like Daxin, has the opportunity or value of being amnesty?
For the amnesty application of the former Prime Minister of Thailand, only one day was used to get the Thai King's grace, and the sentence period has been greatly reduced for seven years.As the Thai royal family described in the bulletin, the Thai king treats Daxin so broadly, hoping that Daxin can "use his knowledge, ability and experience to help and benefit the country, society and the people in the future."
Thailand's current political situation is subtle.For the support of the Thai party, the support of the military can serve as the prime minister and the establishment of a new government. Daxin also needs the protection of the military to return to Thailand safely and seek the royal pardon.
In the Thai election in May this year, the Anti -Military and Anti -monarchy's advanced party won the most seats in the House of Commons, giving the military a sense of crisis with the royal family.Although the leader of the APPC party could not become the new Prime Minister in the end, the Thais, which belongs to the pro -military forces and the former Prime Minister Ba Yu, united the founding party (referred to as the Thailand) and the former deputy prime minister, the citizenship party.Winning 36 and 40 seats, there is no enough chip to form a government.They are therefore dependent on the comparison of the Thai party.
This provides an opportunity for Daxin, allowing him to return to Thailand on August 22 this year after 15 years of self -exile, and finally returned to Thailand on the day he was selected as Prime Minister on the day of Congress.Daxin was transferred to the police hospital for medical treatment in just one day. He was pardoned by the Thakito King on September 1st. It is expected that he can get rid of the cricket soon.
On the other hand, the former Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib, although he is still respected by the party at the grassroots level as Daxin, the political chip he has mastered is far less than Daxin.Umno grassroots still believes that the "bossku" (Malay, which means "my boss") that Najib once set off can help Umno regain glory, so he is looking forward to Najib being amnesty.However, the Hope Alliance of the Malaysian King's Family and the Governance, especially the Prime Minister Anhua, did not face the crisis of survival like the Thai military and royal family.In other words, for the head of Malaysia and the Anwar government, whether the pardon is not urgent.
The urgency of amnesty Najib can be seen from two levels.The first is whether it is essential to revive UMNO, and what bonus effect does it have for Anwar and the united government.
From the perspective of UMNO, seeking forgiveness for Najib has a certain role in stabilizing Umno.At present, the UMNO faction has the power of many anti -party chairman Ahmad Zahi.Although the forces of the UMNO party and the Malaysian election are no longer a climate, before the Malaysian Six State elections in August this year, the voices different from Ahmad Zahi have been reported, including questioning the National Front andThe decision of UMNO and the Pakatan Harapan.
This situation does not improve during the six states elections. Umno grassroots are not effective for the Pakatan Harapan election, and internal differences obviously still exist.The results of the UMNO Election elections are terrible, making this difference deeper.
If Ahmad Zahi will develop from this situation, it may eventually evolve into a "forced palace."As a result, Ahmad Zahi needed a UMNO leader who could help him regain his right to speak and rebuild authority.
For Ahmad Zahi, Najib is this person.Liu Weicheng, a lecturer at the Department of Political and Media, Malaman University, analyzed the United Morning Post: "UMNO basically needs Najib. On April 7 this year, the UMNO Supreme Council decided to seek a comprehensive pardon of Najib to reflectThe willingness of Umno grassroots. "
"If Ahmad Zahi can assist Najib to release prison, he can largely use Najib to operate in the party for a long time to suppress his faction leaders."
However, Azmil Mohd Tayeb believes that even if Najib was released and returned, this power was not enough to regain UMNO even if Najib was released and returned.
Azmir told United Morning Post: "Of course, Najib has a loyal follower in UMNO, but for ordinary Malay voters, Najib has no influence and will not become the UMNO.Key factor. "
Azmir believes that UMNO currently needs thorough reforms, and all the leaders related to corruption power are drawn to clear the boundaries, so as to re -win the trust and support of Malay voters.He said: "The 2018 election, the people, including Malay voters, abandoned UMNO and Barisan Nasional because Najib is involved in a Malaysian Development Co., Ltd. (1MDB).Society's bad view of Najib is still unchanged. "
"It can be said that Najib has nothing to do with the support of Umno to regain the support of Malays.
Liu Weicheng also observed that except for some UMNO supporters, the people are not very concerned about seeking pardon Najib."Today, whether it is Malay society or non -Malaysian society, there is no big emotional bondage to Najib. Besides, the Malaysian Political Bureau has been changing, coupled with the sluggishness of socio -economy, all people are more expensive. Most people care about their own livelihoods.Amnesty in Najib. "
"It is because of such a change in public opinion that I estimate that the Anwar government will be able to drag and continue to take a fuzzy position for the amnesty Najib."
Senior article: The influence is not as good as Daxin amnesty Najib is not rushed to a moment
Umno's stability will directly affect the stability of the unity government.Although the amnesty Najib may achieve the purpose of helping Ahmadzi to stabilize UMNO, and made Ahmadzi and Najib more firmly support Anwar as the Prime Minister, the disadvantage of amnesty Najib is also obvious -it will lead to the Pakatan HarapanLost the support of middle voters.
Ahmadzhashi was sentenced to no matter what happened in the recent health thinking foundation as an example.It is conceivable that if the pardon of Najib, the public opinion field will definitely explode.
Amnesty or Najib will cause controversy.This puts the united government in dilemma.
Liu Weicheng believes that in order to ensure the stability of the united government, Anwar will tend to amnesty Najib."Anwar knows that Najib can help Ahmad Zahi stabilize UMNO. However, UMNO's influence in Malay politics has declined, coupled with the complex emotions of UMNO leaders, grassroots and supporters, and UMNOIt will cause Anwar to be afraid to rashly openly support the amnesty Najib. "
According to the Malaysian Constitution, after the head of state received a amnesty application, the Federal Penal Committee must be held for discussion.The members of the committee include the chief prosecutor, the minister of the federal district, and the members of the upper three heads of state.The head of state will fulfill the pardon power according to the proposal of the amnesty bureau.
However, the current unity government does not set up a federal district, but instead sets the authority and responsibilities of the original department into the Prime Minister's Office.In other words, Prime Minister Anhua is equivalent to the Minister of the Federation and is a member of the Amnesty Committee.
Liu Weicheng said that for the unity government, Najib has the value of being amnesty like Daxin, but unlike the important degree of the Thai party's political situation, UMNO is not so big in the Malaysian Kingdom in Malaysia.Influence, in the subject of pardon Najib, cannot be said to be completely impossible, but it is more difficult and the resistance is greater.
Although Daxin had an exile and overseas before, his influence in Thailand still existed, and his sister Yingla even became a prime minister.Although Yingla also encountered a military coup, because of the Thai party, the Daxin family still had a platform.The Thai party won 141 seats in the recent Thai election and is the second largest party in Congress.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a professor of political auxiliary professors at the University of Langshi University, described Daxin as "the person who mastered the Thai political remote control" during an interview with Lianhe Zaobao.
He said: "Although Daxin is in jail, everyone knows that he shoulder an important special mission. He is an important variable for whether the Thai party can return to the political main stage.It can be seen that the people who are committed to the loyalty of the Daxin family and the close relationship between the Hexin family are undoubtedly a deeply influential person in the new government. "
But in Malaysia, the Najib family has basically lost its influence after Najib was imprisoned, and UMNO won only 26 seats in the 2022 election.It is simply a little witch.
Najib in prison is more "useful"
The current affairs commentator Xu Guowei told this newspaper that there is no large -scale election except for the possible supplementary elections in Malaysia in the past few years. Thereforeticket.
He said: "I am amnesty and release Najib, there is no need to rush for a while. After all, most people now think that the unity government led by Anwar has no reason to seek amnesty for Najib."
He also said that Umno has been looking forward to a "savior" to regain UMNO after the national election and six states elections.However, for the UMNO leadership led by Ahmad Zahg, Najib has a greater role in prison."This role is to expect the Umno party members. After all, Ahmad Zahi is now free, and it is right to prove that cooperation with Pakatan Harapan. Then, if you need good news about Najib, you must continue to cooperate with Pakatan Harapan to support the current support to support the present and support the present.Leadership. "
Deputy Text 2: Da Type the Agreement to get a amnesty Najib without agreement to talk about
The Anwar government is worried that the amnesty Najib will cause complaints, making the Pakatan Harapan pay a heavy price in the next election.In Thailand, Daxin's amnesty has also caused controversy. Some civil organizations, especially anti -letter groups, believe that corruption is unforgivable.
These differences are worried that Thailand will break out of large -scale street demonstrations again, and military coup will be staged again.
Daxin and Yingla have eaten the suffering of military coup. Wan Weiqi, assistant professor of the University of Langshi University in Thailand, believes that Daxin and the Thai party will learn from the Thai party to avoid repeating the same mistakes.
He said in an interview that although many people believe that the Thai party has been forced to accept many conditions for the establishment of a new government, including cooperation with the political parties of the pro -military, which makes it disadvantaged, but this is actually Daxin and Thailand.The wisdom of the party."Daxinhe knows that this is the most favorable situation for them, because there are no other choices for the conservatives. Only through the reconciliation of the Thai party can lead the country. Therefore, although there are many analysis saying that Thailand may have a coup at any time, I don’t have a coup at any time.Think that this will really happen. "
Wanweiqi pointed out that Thailand's current political environment has undergone tremendous changes."For conservatives and the military, Daxin is no longer a political threat, and it is more challenging the rapid rise of the Party.The conservative is most worried. To resist the expansion of the advanced party, the only choice is Ladinxin and the Thai party together as political allies. "
Daxin returned to Thailand, Thailand and international media have reported that they have reached a secret agreement to the Thai party and the pro -military party. One of the conditions includes allowing Daxin to return to China.Although Daxin and the Thai party both denied, Daxin quickly got the royal pardon after returning home, which made people believe that there was such an agreement.
After Daxin obtained amnesty, Thitinanpongsudhirak, director of the School of Security and International Research, the School of Security and International Research, Thailand, told the United States CNN that he believes that the reduction of Daxin's sentence is part of the agreement.Essence"If the threat brought by the advanced party, Daxin's amnesty will not pass so quickly, and the new government led by the Thai party will not be formed so quickly. Now the transaction has been reached, and the Thailand will continue to move forward, but the situation will be a bit awkward."
Azmir from the Academy of Social Sciences of Malaysia pointed out that Najib and Daxin could not be compared in the founding of the pardon of the royal family.He said: "If it is to maintain the stability of the government, Anwar should negotiate and reach an agreement.It's Najib."
"The corruption case involved in Ahmad Zahi has nothing to explain and temporarily get rid of the lawsuit. Although Anwar denied intervene, people still regard this matter as an agreement between Anhua and Ahmad Zaji. Since it isWith this agreement, there is no need to pardon Najib. "
