The Taiwan real estate market has red fire due to the "new youth's peaceful home purchase preferential loan" transactions. Many banks have recently lend loans to the upper limit of the decree.Turn at an atmosphere.At the same time, the government has continuously expanded and extended the rent subsidy project. Civil groups are worried that this move has pushed the rental market and became "more and more expensive and more expensive."
Taiwan's real estate market has been hot since the second half of last year. With the combustion of the policy of "new young people's peaceful home buying preferential loans" (referred to as Xinqing'an), a number of public banks (with government equity) and private bank loans are close to "full full" full "full"Water levels", banks make money; Central Bank interviewed 34 banks in August, demanding that the total amount of real estate loans is controlled to avoid endangering financial stability and sustainable economic development.
In order to assist in the purchase of houses without their own housing, the Taiwan government opened a project of "Young House Buying Promotion Loans" in 2010.Before the past presidential election, the government launched Xin'an. From August 1, 2023 to the end of July 2026, the loan quota has been raised from 8 million yuan (NT $ 340,000) to 1,00010,000 yuan, the loan period has been extended from 30 years to 40 years, and the width limit (repay only interests does not repay the principal) from three years to five years, and the interest rate is only 1.775%.The low -cost houses that meet the conditions of Xinqing'an are hot.
According to the statistics of the Central Bank of Taiwan, as of the end of June this year, the balance of buying residential loans rose to 10.54 trillion yuan, and the annual growth rate expanded to 10.21%, a new high since July 2021.Liudu (Taipei, Xinbei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung) in June, the total number of transferred buildings, totaling 23,801 buildings, a monthly decrease of 11.5%, an annual increase of 16.9%;Tong, an annual increase of 27.6%, wrote a new high in the past 11 years.
Chen Dingzhong, manager of the Trend Center of Taiwan Housing Group, pointed out to Lianhe Morning Post that at the beginning of the new Qing'an in August last year, houses with a low total price of 10 million yuan were sold very quickly.After a transition and sale of the transfer, or after the completion of the house that is more than three years), it is difficult to create a large amount of supply in a short time, and the buyer is transferred to the pre -sale house after half a year.After this part of the sales is almost the same, the buyers can rush to the pre -sale house that can be delivered within the period of Xinqing'an to drive the pre -sale house, which drives the pre -sale house market very hot.
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Li Tongrong, Honorary Chairman of the Honor of the All -China Union, who has decades of experience in the real estate industry for decades, said in an interview with the Morning Post that this round of rise brought by Xinqing'an is the sixth wave of real estate cycle in Taiwan in more than 30 years.The crazy one."This wave is relatively urgent. It will not be more than a year to throw the tail. This is the backlight of the last rising section."
The transaction volume of the housing market in the first half of the year increased by 30 % year -on -year
According to Li Tongrong analysis, from the end of 2021 to 2022 is the main promotion of this cycle. Now it is originally a housing tide, and a loan is about to make a loan.Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 30 %, causing bank loans to crowd out the rigid demand. New Qing'an and disadvantaged, housing mortgage disputes in the pre -sale market continued to handle mortgage mortgages, and the trend of small builders' closure.
At present, almost 28%of many public banks lending loans, approaching 30%of the bank law.Many public banks have stopped housing loans. Some of them have to wait for the new repayment balance of the month even if they are reviewed.
According to the regulations, the housing market must be paid in two months under normal circumstances. Now the buyer has no loan, or is forced to accept a higher interest rate or reduce the loan.out.
According to Article 72 of the Bank of Taiwan Law, "the total amount of commercial banks in handling residential buildings and corporate buildings shall not exceed the total balance of deposits and the sum of the amount of financial bonds when the loan.thirty" .Land banking and agricultural and fishery associations that are not restricted by this law have recently increased in housing loans and breeding a lot of trouble.
In view of the fact that all banks' real estate loans at the end of June accounted for the total lending ratio (concentration of real estate loans) rose to 37.4%, close to 37.9%of historical highs, the Central Bank of Taiwan shared the control of the bank.To over -flowing to real estate loans, the housing market has a "high -risk" reversal atmosphere.
Industry insiders: Xinqing'an becomes a new youth ampone
Li Tongrong believes that the central bank's contraction of funds is useful, but Taiwan does not lack funds. "The hype is not the cause, but you will make it fry."
He bluntly said: "Xinqing'an is the election product, although 70 % of the people's wish to produce their homes, but also caused more than 30 % of false demand. The purpose is to rent Tuli, which becomes the new youth amphibious."
"I reminded the government very early that some pre -sale houses can use low self -reserve and zero project funds, so that people who can't afford a room but want to gamble can enter the market, causing the illusion that the water rises."
Li Tongrong for example, who originally bought 10 million yuan to make a house must have 2 million yuan, and then borrowed 80 %. Now buying a pre -sale house only needs to pay 600,000 deposits, pay in three yearsAfter three years, speculative gambling may rise by 20, 30 %, or even 50 %. If you pay 600,000 yuan to 3 million yuan, 2.4 million yuan will enter the pocket; if it does not rise, 600,000 will make it break, and most of them win.Therefore, some investors took 6 million yuan to buy 10 bedroom speculation in one breath. The profit was rich.
In order to avoid investing in new Qing'an real estate speculation, derivative transfer, head households and other issues, the Executive Yuan will launch anti -discharge measures to implement pre -loan review and post -loan management at the end of June.Regulations.
Zhang Jinzheng, former deputy mayor of Taipei and a retired professor at the Department of Political Science, Politburo, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "In fact, the new Qing'an was launched before the presidential election last year.It is also very large. The government is afraid of causing the builder to rebound and reduce political contributions. The election piles are gone. If you do n’t dare to fight, just put it on, and there is taxes to collect it. HoweverWhat should I do if the five -year width limit is not available after five years?
In recent years, the Taiwan government has launched measures to launch housing taxes and formulate average land rights regulations, but the results have not been effective.
Zhang Jinzhang believes that the government said that it was necessary to fight the speculation, but it launched Xinqing'an to attract speculators to enter the market and contradicts each other. Instead, it helped consolidate high housing prices.
Wu Denren, a professor at the Department of Economics, Taiwan Central University, analyzed from the principle of supply and demand in economics. The official policy goal is to hope that short -term investors will withdraw from the market, but the new tax system has been extended from two years to five years.The average land rights regulations are prohibited from the resale of pre -sale houses. "I hope to reduce demand, but the result is to lock the supply."
He doesn't thinkXinqing'an is the main reason for the current high house prices."Of course, Xinqing'an will increase the price of the house slightly. If there is no household tax in front of the house and the average land rights regulations, all the supply is completely locked. In addition, the inflation expectations are expected.They all run out to buy a house.
Rental subsidy may be promoted to rent for rent
The Taiwan Executive Yuan passed the "30 billion yuan central lease subsidy project plan" last week to extend the rent subsidy project to 2026. The number of subsidies will also be expanded from 500,000 to 750,000 next year.However, after the implementation of the policy, it was also reported that the landlord took the opportunity to increase the rent. Local governments and civil groups were worried that rent subsidies to push the rental market and become "more and more expensive residence justice."
The Ministry of the Interior emphasized that since 2022, the rent subsidy project started to the end of July this year, the number of cases has applied for more than 800,000 cases, and the number of approved pieces has grown to more than 6007,000 households.Effectively assist the rental family to reduce the burden on living.
Li Tongrong, Honorary Chairman of the Federation of the Full Conference of the Broker of the Professional Agency, pointed out to Lianhe Zaobao that 9 million residents in Taiwan should build at least 5%, that is, 500,000 household homes.The problem, but the number of social houses is currently not even 1.5%.
He revealed that when the Tsai Ing -wen government took office in 2016, the "three arrows of the house" (reform of the real estate tax system, sound rental system, and 200,000 household homes).Transform 80,000 private empty houses into social housing."At that time, I asked him why the goal was booked in 80,000 households? He said that there were 800,000 empty houses in Taiwan. He did not believe that Chengdu could not force it. I told him that if he could move successfully, 200,000 households would be possible;But unsuccessful, 1%did not reach it.
"Where did the 80,000 households come from later?Names, not only free housing taxes, but also enjoy subsidies such as income tax, housing tax, land price tax, and repair fees."
Li Tongrong said that chartered titles can activate old houses and create new value. It was originally a good industrial policy, and he was also very optimistic."But the name of the fake empty house is transferred, creating hypocritical achievements, doubled subsidies to the landlord, and reduced taxes. For 80,000 households, waste twice the money, it has no help to social housing at all.The government later did not talk about the air house transferred to the social house, because it was at all to bully. "
Chen Dingzhong, a senior manager of the Taiwan Housing Group Trend Center, also pointed out to the Morning Post that rents have risen and the launch of Xinqing'an has indeed prompted young people to accelerate the purchase of houses.
For example, in the Taipei Neihu Science Park, there are 15 pings (nearly 50 square meters) permissions suite with administrators. The actual use of 11 and 12 pings, with a rent of at least 20,000 yuan.It is 1,500 yuan in one ping in Taipei. It costs 30,000 yuan for small families to rent 20 pings.If you buy a small house of 12 million yuan, go to the new Qing'an 10 million yuan, and pay 35,000 yuan for 30 -year principal stalls.It feels easier and cheaper, so buying is more cost -effective than renting.
Some experts predict that when the five -year width time is over, the tide of organs may occur.
Chen Dingzhong said: "People of the older generation will think about how much do the principal stalls are needed to end the Starts, but now most of the first buyers are under 40 years old.12682 collapsed, and the housing market also fell. Young people just want to get rid of the living of the rental houses.
Everyone is grabbing the house
"The whole Taiwan is crazy."
The 30 -year -old tuition teacher of the Zeng surnamed Zeng bought a 23 -year -old and 17.2 -ping building in the Xinpu MRT Station in Banqiao, New Taipei City at the end of March. I did not expect to pay the house in mid -MayThe house purchased by 730,000 yuan (NT $ 333) per ping (3.3 square meters) rose to 900,000 yuan per ping.He emphasized to Lianhe Zaobao twice: "The whole Taiwan is crazy."
When he was interviewed, he couldn't restrain the excitement of short -term profits, and it was vaguely felt that the new Qing'an policy seemed to be inappropriate."This policy is too terrible. Many funds enter real estate. Everyone is grabbing. No matter how bad the house is, there are people."
When he bought a house at the end of March, he found that there was a constant crowd of houses in the house. He felt extremely hot in the housing market. The keen himself asked Fangzhong to ask him to ask him a few more banks.Previously, it was awarded a preferential interest rate of 1.775 % of the Bank of Taiwan.
He loans of about 10 million yuan, and selects 40 years to pay back. It only takes 15,000 yuan per month; after five years of width, the monthly interest stall is still more than 30,000 yuan."The rent on the opposite side is 25,000 yuan smaller than me. It is still more cost -effective to buy a house. Even in small suite in the vegetable market, the rent is 13,000 to 13,000 yuan."
If the economy goes downhill in the future, or if you can't afford a mortgage in your career?
"You don't have to finish it, you can also sell it." He did not have the idea of long -term holding.
Buy more rented peace
Zhang Zhongye, who originally rented a house, had a pre -sale house for 300,000 yuan per ping before the Crown disease epidemic. This year, the official delivery of the house has risen to more than 400,000.
Although the amount of Xin'an loan is 10 million yuan and the loan can be loan for 40 years, she chose to loan more than 6 million, for 30 years, and the monthly interest rate was 30,000 yuan.She told Lianhe Zaobao: "My total price is relatively low, I don't want to carry the debt for so long, and I don’t want to be so tight."
"I rented a house before, 25,000 per month, and now although paying 5,000 yuan, it is not paid to the landlord, but to yourself, the heart is more stable."
She has been working in Fang Zhongye for more than 10 years. She bluntly stated that real estate has risen a small return, and the trend has always been up, but this wave of young people bravely pursued her."They are even more afraid that they can't afford it if they don't buy it now. Even if they buy the highest price in the local community, they are still willing to buy it."
