In the increasingly hot Taiwan "three -legged" presidential election campaign, Ke Wenzhe, a public party candidate, seemed to have killed a bloody path.
According to the latest polls published by the Taiwan media TVBS Sunday (June 18), Ke Wenzhe's support is 33%, which is 10 percentage points from May, from third place to the first place.Lai Qingde, which was collected by the party, supported 30%, a slight increase of three percentage points from May, and continued to rank second.From the first place in May to the third place.
This is the first time that Ke Wenzhe has surpassed the blue and green candidates for the first time in many polls.TVBS is the mainstream media in Taiwan. It has multiple TV channels and is blue.
Two days after the release of TVBS polls, the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, which has a green political color, also announced the poll on Tuesday (June 20).Hou Youyi ranked third with 20.4%.This result is similar to the polls published on Wednesday (June 21), the pro -blue and Gallop, which is the first (31.89%), Ke Wenzhe second (24.62%), and Hou Youyi continues to the bottom (17.93%).
Earlier this earlier, the Kiss Green Moisturizing Media also announced the polls on Wednesday (June 14). Lai Qingde ranked first with 37.76%support. Ke Wenzhe ranked second with 31.29%, Hou Youyi was 21.87 with 21.87%Ranks third.However, the gap between Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe at the time was a little narrower than the results of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation and Zhongguang and Gallopp.
The polls of these media and institutions have several things in common: first, Hou Youyi's support has been lagging behind Ke Wenzhe; second, Hou Youyi has supported the last seat in the three top three "blue -green and white"; thirdAlthough there are different extensions, Ke Wenzhe's support was compared with Lai Qingde, who was up to the hot.
Taking the TVBS poll as an example, Ke Wenzhe's support increased by 10 percentage points in one month; in this poll, Ke Wenzhe's support in the ages of 20 to 29, with 58%, better than Lai Hou more than Lai Hou's support.40 percentage points are also a significant lead among groups aged 30 to 39. Even if they reach 40 to 49, they still lead 36%.
Huang Yanhan, a senior media person in Taiwan, posted a comment on Facebook on social media.He wrote: "Support under 39 years old, Ke Wenzhe first, 49 years old support, Ke Wenzhe also maintained a lead, which means that the" old and lower and small 'carry the generation, which is bored with blue and green.It is a group in his 40s ... The houses in front of you can't afford it, your parents need to take care of, the children want to raise, blue and green have made them unwilling, so they want to try it, to invest in Ke Wenzhe, what will happen to Taiwan in the future? "
However, Huang Yanhan believes that from the perspective of organizational warfare, Ke Wenzhe is almost impossible to win, but the people's hearts are changing. Ke Wenzhe actually called Hou Youyi by the Kuomintang in just one month.30%), breaking the five (the support of certain ethnic groups exceeded 50%), grabbing the first "(win first).
He pointed out that this is the problem of Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde's warning message. He also believes that Ke Wenzhe will win the 2024 presidential election.'topic of".
What happened behind this?
Blue and green have been inflamed recently
Ke Zhien, the CEO of the Kuomintang think tank, analyzed TVBS War Love Room on June 18. Because the Kuomintang and the DPP have recently been trapped in storms and controversy, Ke Wenzhe who did not touch the fisherman was therefore the benefit of the fishermen.Become a beneficiary.She said: "Xinbei's medical treatment case, Lai Qingde's Metoo case, I want to see the election campaigns in the middle, everyone will start to see these issues, and constantly discuss these issues. For both parties, both parties will be discussed.It's a big loss. "
Hou Youyi took the lead in New Taipei City. A local kindergarten was shocked by a rumor that children were suspected of being banned earlier.It has been nearly three weeks since the incident, but Yu Wen has not been scattered, and it has also revealed that Hou Youyi has not been able to take care of the municipal and elections.
As for the "Metoo" storm ignited from the Democratic Progressive Party, the scope of the impact is getting larger and larger. In addition to the green camps, it has been burned to the entire political circle and even the entertainment circle.
The Joint Daily of Kiss Blue also published a comment article on June 19 stating that Ke Wenzhe's polls, attributed the performance of blue and green to voters too much. "The two major parties did not fight for it, creating Ke Wenzhe whirlwind."
Guo Zhengliang, a former legislator and well -known current affairs commentator of the Democratic Progressive Party, commented. It feels that Ke Wenzhe has recently moved closer to the Green Camp, but he will separate himself and position himself as a "clean, not dual -standard localist", and strive for the middle.Voters who are green and disappointed with the Democratic Progressive Party.
However, if they all attribute Ke Wenzhe's polls to the scandal of Taiwan's blue and green camps, it is not completely accurate.
The China Rights Agency headquartered in Hong Kong posted that Ke Wenzhe's style attracted a lot of votes for him.
The article wrote: "Ke Wenzhe is more daring to dare to dare the duel comments on straight balls than Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde.Politicians say that a large article around is all nonsense, but it becomes a niche point for Ke Wenzhe to expand the middle votes at this time. "
Xu Fu, deputy secretary -general of the people, believes that the reason why Ke Wenzhe's polls support rises, reflecting his efforts.He said that since the start of the election campaign, Ke Wenzhe has arranged at least five to eight campus speeches a week, and sometimes three games or even three games, facing the students to explain their political philosophy and outlook on life.
"Other political figures to campus are exams, but Ke Wenzhe go to campus, more like class." Xu Fu said that in the past, Ke Wenzhe was a teacher and had no distance from students.The comparison of people's judgment can naturally allow him to recognize in the young people.
Who is Ke Wenzhe?
Ke Wenzhe was put in politics,He is a professor at the Taiwan University Medical College and the director of the intensive care unit.
He once laughed at his own popularity, and he may not be able to choose if he was voted for the president of the hospital.But in 2014, he won the Pan -Blue Base Camp Taipei City as a non -party member.
In 2018, Ke Wenzhe was successfully re -elected as the mayor of Taipei, and founded the People's Party and the first party chairman in the following year.Taiwan's law stipulates that county heads can be re -elected once.
If you pay attention to Taiwan media for a long time, there is something to say that it has always been Ke Wenzhe's unique marker. His speech was called "Ke Lingua" by the media. Due to the frankness of his personality, Ke Wenzhe's prestige among young people remained high.For example, in 2018, he participated in the online program Welcome by young people.The show set a hit rate of 10 million on the audio and video platform YouTube.
However, Ke Wenzhe also caused external criticism for many times because of "missing words". Some people think that his speech is sometimes too frivolous, making him the goal of the blue and green party attacks.
The challenge facing Ke Wenzhe
Joint News published on June 19th that Ke Wenzhe's whirlwind was difficult to last, but the Kuomintang's articles that the affected households may be pointed out that Ke Wenzhe's recent smooth and smooth water is mainly because the two major parties are too dissatisfied, so the public will automatically automatically will automatically will automatically will automatically will automatically automatically will automatically will automatically will automatically automatically will automatically.It is identified as an intermediate route, especially the cross -strait policy spectrum."Many people automatically imagine that between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang, Ke Wenzhe is a compromise between deliberate provocations and grievances."
The article states that "non -country and non -people" may not represent the middle of the representative, and questioned that the publicly claimed to use the online army to attack Ke Wenzhe in mainland China, although many voters were addicted, but this style of governance is really better than Lai Qingde than Lai Qingde"Practical Taiwan independence" is not provocative?
Ke Wenzhe said on June 11 at the event organized by the people's party that it is necessary to prepare for the army in accordance with the perspective of the enemy forces and make a good resource allocation; if he is elected president, the online army is the first priority.I have the ability to paralyze the Internet, "Don't move, really move, I will do you."
Some Taiwanese netizens believe that Ke Wenzhe's remarks expose his "true Taiwan independence". In the context of the tight situation on both sides of the strait, "such a presidential candidate 'mother soup' (Taiwanese, no)."
Lianhe News also said that Ke Wenzhe won the polls of the polls of the TVBS, which is probably difficult to maintain for a long time. The reason is that the DPP, which was originally deliberately "Yang Ke,", the artillery mouth must turn to Ke Wenzhe; although the Kuomintang made although the Kuomintang made the Kuomintang make the Kuomintang orderThe supporters are annoyed, whether it is a hundred -footed bug, can always sacrifice counterattack."Once the opponent reorganizes, (Ke) wants to take the initiative to add points by its own strength, I'm afraid it is difficult."
The article also ordered the issue of the people's party, saying that it does not have a selling point except Ke Wenzhe. He has left the Circle of Ke Wenzhe, Huang Shanshan, deputy mayor of Taipei City, and the current mayor of Hsinchu Gao Hongan. No one has a star halo."The outside world has doubted whether this 'third largest party' can be obtained in regional legislators." In addition to the presidential election, Taiwan will also conduct regional elections of legislators next January.
In short, it is not optimistic that Ke Wenzhe can obtain an Olympic aid like a blue -green party.
Wu Zijia, the chairman of the Green Beauty Island Electronics Daily, also holds the same opinion. He said with no mercy: "Ke Wenzhe is now playing alone. There is no trader next to him and big coffee.Playing, Ke Wenzhe and these children have no way to be elected president. It is impossible. Taiwan must have a lot of basic conditions. The structure must be right. "
Perhaps aware of the limitations and wanted to fight for more resources. On June 20, Ke Wenzhe visited the "Yitai E Sanitary Ware" sightseeing factory and was received by the chairman Hong Tuanzhang.Hong Tuanzhang is currently Cai Yingwen's national policy consultant. He is also the president of Keelung City's "Friends of the Little British" and the consultant of the "Trust of the Friends of Taiwan". Therefore, the outside world interprets Ke Wenzhe's "pile".
In the Taiwan election, there are grass -roots cadres who have mobilized appeal and deep connections, generally referring to "pile feet".Buying the corner of the "pile foot" that belongs to the enemy camp is called "pulling the pile".
Press the Obama route?
When former US President Obama first ran for the president in 2008, not many people thought he had a chance to win. This was not only because of skin tone and political resources, but also because the party's opponent Hillary knew almost all American commercial tycoon.She can get more campaign funds from these people.
But Obama successfully used the Internet and won many volunteers and a large number of campaign funds.The New York Times reported that it is estimated that more than 85%of his donors come from the Internet, most of which are less than 100 US dollars (the same, about S $ 134).Obama's campaign funds reached a record $ 740 million.
It was less than a few years after the founding of a political party. Ke Wenzhe's lack of resources today is his obstacles to his big position.Can he successfully convert the network sound volume into substantial votes or use it as a real gold and silver, breaking through the blue -green barriers of the golden soup, and everyone is watching.
