Comment: The President of the Liberal Democratic Party elected the ＂Three -foot Dingl

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Masahiro Hidaka, Daisuke Sakai

The Japanese ruling party is about to vote for a new party, and will become the next Prime Minister. Traders are preparing for the impact of the yen and exporters and bank stocks.In addition, new leaders have attracted much attention to the foreign policy of the United States and the largest trading partner in the United States and the largest trading partner.

The impact of the election results on monetary policy will be the primary focus. Kishida Wenxiong's steps will be deemed to continue to tighten the policy to the central bank to clear the road.Although the Bank of Japan is independent of the government, it is often faced with political pressure.

"No matter who won, I think the Bank of Japan will have to get used to politicians more frequently to try to affect the central bank," said Phillip Wool, head of Rayliant Global Advisors asset group."This will make people feel frustrated, but this is a reality. The inflation and the status of the Bank of Japan's policy in the minds of voters are much higher, and it is the core attention."

The first election of the Liberal Democratic Party is scheduled to be held on Friday, and the number of candidates has reached a record nine, but the most notable candidate scope has been reduced to three leaders.The Liberal Democratic Party's veteran politicians Shi Po Mao and the younger Koizumi Koizumi Jinjiro. Both of them are regarded as a very eagle in the monetary policy. If Gao Shi Miao was elected, it may become the first female prime minister in Japan. Her position is to keep the interest rate of low interest rates low.Essence

The government's remarks on the Bank of Japan's policy may affect the yen. The yen has begun to rebound since it touched the weakest level since 1986.In addition to the influence on the exchange rate of exporters of Japan, the first dispute between the Liberal Democratic Party also has an impact on stocks from national defense to human resources and other industries.

The following is the main content of investors' attention:

Shi Po Mao

The outside world believes that Ishimao supports the Bank of Japan to continue to gradually tighten monetary policy to boost the plan of the yen.Traders are worried that this may curb the comprehensive rise of the stock market. Earlier, Japanese stocks have touched the record high.

WOOL said that Shikomo and other veterans, Kono Kono, and Mao Mimin, may be too hawks, which may be unfavorable to the stock market and may cause excessive fluctuations in the yen.

Investors also expressed caution of Shi Po Mao's support for improving financial income tax.

If Shi Po Mao came to power and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, an industry that may benefit will be the banking industry.The Dongzhi Bank stock index has been undergoing a narrowing to win the market, but the gap with the broader market index has been narrowed.

Koizumi Koizuro

43 -year -old Koizumi Koizuro is the son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Koi, and is the youngest candidate. At present, he is more popular.If he was elected, it is expected that he will largely continue Kishida Wenxiong's policy route and support interest rate hikes.

Nakamura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa wrote in the report that the impact of Koizumi Kojiro may be neutral on the market. At the beginning, the result may lead to bond Xiong Ping, the stock market rises and the yen is strong.

Gaoshi Sanmiao

Gao Shi Miao has always been a firm supporter of loose monetary policy. She said earlier this week, "I am now stupid." She supports the prevalence of the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's re -expansion policy program. This is her and and withOne of the most different factor in other candidates.

Any delay of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may keep the yen weak.This may have a chain reaction to the stock exporters and auto manufacturers.This may also help the wave of entry tourism.

Diplomacy Challenge

No matter who is elected Prime Minister in the end, the most important challenge will be how to manage the relationship between China and Japan's largest trading partner in China.

In the initial stage of the campaign, discussions on foreign policy issues generally retire second.However, the situation changed last week. A Japanese boy died in China. This incident prompted all candidates to speak out, calling on this to investigate and request measures to protect Japanese citizens.Diplomators of the two countries have recently held consultations on Japanese boys' assassinations.

A Chinese military aircraft last month briefly entered Japan.According to Japanese media reports on Thursday, a warship of the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force passed the Taiwan Strait for the first time on Wednesday, and this move may irritate China.

Nine candidates said they will continue to allocate alliance with the United States to check and check the threats from China, as well as the threat from North Korea and Russia.

"It is expected that there will be no major changes in Japan, because the main goal of any one session of the Japanese government is still to consolidate the relationship with the United States and expand and strengthen the relationship with other security allies, although the reputation of the United States has been questioned, andExternal adverse environment is intensified, said Brad Glosserman, a senior consultant at the think tank Pacific FORUM.

Some recent incidents have shaken people's confidence in the United States, including US President Joe Bayeng and Republicans, both of which have opposed Japanese iron -making transactions to the acquisition of American steel.

However, no candidate advocates that the relationship between Japan and the United States has changed significantly, and most people want to continue to deepen the relationship with other major countries such as South Korea and Australia.