Comment: The US -China relations are backward, but Congress has not yet hurt the ＂nor

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Daniel Flatley

In view of the current situation of US -China relations, Congress has not yet revoked China's permanent normal trade relations (the so -called "the most" best -benefit country ") is surprising.

In Congress Mountain, it is difficult to find who is willing to publicly defend this 24 -year history.Looking back at the statement of it, its durability is even more emotional.When the then President Bill Clinton approved the government's approval of his government and China, he said that this was a "beautiful day in the United States". He also said that "we will be happy when we look back today for our actions".Essence

Nearly a quarter of a century has passed, and the results are clear at a glance.Although no one is particularly satisfied with this agreement, some groups believe that the full abolition of the agreement will damage the US economy.A new study by the Institute of International Economics of Peter Sen pointed out that if it is done by agriculture, mining and durable products, it will be the first to be severely impacted.

"Over time, these unemployed workers will be absorbed by the service industry throughout the decline in the actual salary of the entire US economic economy," reported that the cancellation of China's permanent normal trade relationship will lead toCompared with the short -term decline in the benchmark line, and it cannot be fully recovered. "

report also pointed out that the cancellation of this status will also stimulate inflation and soaring: if the tariffs are entered, it will rise by 0.2%, and if China revenge will climb 0.4%.For both presidential candidates who vowed to cope with inflation, this is not a attractive prospect.It can imagine what the Fed's decision makers may feel.

Considering the emotions of Congress to China, it is not impossible to abolish the status of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), and once it becomes true and American -China relations, it will return to the state before 2000.From 1980 to the beginning of the new century, the United States gave normal trade relations on the basis of Congress's review every year, and therefore could not talk about "permanentness".

The House of Representatives China Competitive Special Commission has proposed a severe proposal. After being blocked by the industry, it suggested to take similar measures in its 2023 report.

Once the bill is signed as a law, it is difficult to abolish.This is also one of the reasons why lobbyers spend a lot of time trying to prevent the passage of legislation.

It is unlikely that China ’s permanent normal trade relations are unlikely, but this is one of the demands of the Republican party program in 2024.If the former President Donald Trump returned to the White House, it was not impossible.

If Vice President Kamara Harris wins, the possibility of completely canceling will not disappear.However, Congress may find that the state that is restored before 2000 may be an equally attractive idea, although it is not easy to achieve.