The ruling foundation of Chavez and Maduro is the middle and lower levels, and it is understandable to adopt the re -distribution plan of some pro -poor.The problem is that they have gone too far, which greatly exceeds the limit of national and financial resources.
Venezuelan National Election Commission announced on July 29 that the candidate of the Great Patriotic Alliance and the current President Maduro won the right -wing leader and the opposition democratic unity alliance candidate for the votes of 51.2%.Gonzalez was again elected President of Venezuela, from 2025 to 2031.As the successor of the late Venezuela legendary left -wing leader Chavez, Maduro won the most important and challenging election since he was in power.
But as the famous left -wing anti -American fighter and the helm of the world's oil power, Maduro's third term is destined not to be calm.In 2013, Chavez, known for "anti -American fighter", died of cancer.Subsequently, Maduro, as his "political heritage" heirs, started a new stage in charge of Venezuela.The Maduro government's re -election in the last election accompanied the fierce violence and strong doubts.One side is strong public support, and one side is supported by soldiers.Venezuela, a high -income country in the past, has repeated the mistakes of Argentina, which is undoubtedly a cruel disaster.
Why did Venezuela fall into the ranks of the country of failure from high -income countries?Argentina's experience may be enlightened.Argentina is a country that is comparable to the United States.From 1870 to 1913, Argentina's economic growth rate exceeded two major powers at the time: the United States and Germany.Before the Great Depression in 1929, for the Italian and Irish immigrants who had dreamed of escaping from the poor hometown in 1929, they often worried whether they chose to go to Buenos Aires or go to New York.
Today, Argentina has been repeatedly overtaken by Japan, Singapore and even Chile.Why is Argentina's national strength decline so much?Some people attribute to the country's long -term debt, while others believe that it is the consequences of long -term inflation.What is the truth?
If you want to find clues about the decline of Argentina's economy today, Peron is obviously an unable to bypass.As early as he served as a military military officer in the Italian Embassy, he was devoted to various social systems, culture and arts, folk customs and social sciences in Europe.After returning to China, he proposed the so -called third route that is different from capitalism and communism -Peronism.
Argentine tears come from Peronism
In 1946, Peron relied on the support of the army and the labor class to obtain the regime and introduced many measures.First of all, he imitates the implementation of social welfare policies in mainland Europe and improves workers' wages, social security and other benefits. This series of policies are based on huge financial consumption;The British history before the reform of Mrs. Chel has proven that comprehensive state -owned enterprises will only reduce the efficiency of enterprises and reduce output, and taxation is naturally reduced accordingly.In this increase, the result that can be imagined is that huge debts have been generated.In this way, you can only use continuous printing money to pay huge government bills.The Pellon government does do this.
As the famous economist Messeis pointed out that credit expansion can indeed lead to a momentary prosperity, but this prosperity will sooner or later be destroyed, resulting in a new round of depression.Financial and currency can only receive the surface effect on the surface. In the long run, it will definitely cause the country to fall into a deeper disaster.
Therefore, it is established to attribute the dilemma of Argentina as the debt crisis. It also makes sense to say that it is affected by inflation, because the debt and inflation do have a mutually related relationship.But Peronism is the root of Argentina's predicament.Unfortunately, the so -called Chavezism is a replica of Argentine Peronism.Today, I want to find clues about the collapse of the political and economic system of the community, which is inseparable from the understanding of a person. He is the famous Ugo Rafael Chavez FRIas of the United States.Essence
Chavez is a legend of Latin America.He launched an attempted army change, experienced an attempted coup, defeated a referendum for removal, and won four consecutive presidential elections.His largest political heritage to Venezuela is the Chavezist model with the slogan "Bolivar Revolution" and "21st Century Socialism".
Chavez's "Bolivar Revolution"
After taking office in February 1999, he began to promote the "Bolivar Revolution".Simon Bolivar (from 1783 to 1830) was the liberations of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, and opposed the national heroes, military and thinkers who opposed Spanish colonial rule.He advocates national equality and abolition of slavery, and advocates an integrated movement of unity and integration of America.Chavez claimed to be his loyal successor. In order to complete Bolivar's unfinished karma, Chavez announced the "Bolivar Revolution" in a peaceful and democratic way.
He pointed out that there are three "roots" of this revolutionary thought source: Simon Bolivar, Simon Rodriguez (the former teacher, advocating the people's education, freedom, equality), SkielSamora (general of the Venezuela's independence war, advocating sovereignty to return to the people).He called the new constitution passed in December 1999 as the "Bolivar Constitution" and changed the "Venezuela Republic" to "Venezuela Bolivar Republic".The "Bolivar Constitution" has built Chavez's legal basis for promoting the "Bolivar Revolution".
After 2005, he emphasized that the purpose of the "Bolivar Revolution" was to achieve socialism.In February of the year, he proposed the "21st Century Socialism" for the first time; August, it clearly pointed out that a "21st Century Socialist Revolution."He emphasized that this is the unique socialism of Venezuela and a mixture of Christian socialism, Indianism, Bolivarism, Marxism, Trotsky, and Castroism.He said: "Real Christ has more communist thoughts than any socialist" and "Jesus was the first socialist of our time."
Hold up the banner against neo -liberalism and emphasize socialism and come to power on stage. Like the predecessor Palon, he pushes the marketization to extremes, extend the tentacles of government power to the major economic departments, and use state interventionism to intervene in national interventionism.Comprehensively integrate the economy.Specific measures include: comprehensive nationalization, price control and foreign exchange control.
What he does is to point the goal to the super welfare of social policies.Due to the long -term implementation of traditional import alternative development models, Venezuela has caused serious differentiation of the rich and poor, providing a hotbed for Chavesian growth.The ruling foundation of Chavez and Maduro is the middle and lower levels, and it is understandable to adopt the re -distribution plan of some pro -poor.The problem is that they have gone too far, which greatly exceeds the limit of national and financial resources.According to the number of Venezuelan National Bureau of Statistics, the Chavez government's investment in social projects in 12 years (1999 to 2011) reached US $ 772 billion (about S $ 102.7 billion).During this period, social investment accounted for about 60%of government expenditure, which was far higher than the proportion of the government (about 36%) of several governments from 1986 to 1998.
Since 2003, the Venezuelan government has formulated and implemented a large number of social plans.As far as the housing plan is concerned, the 1 million houses have been delivered before the end of 2015, and 3 million houses will be delivered by 2019.These houses are provided to the poor for free, but the residents cannot get the "room".If they are not actively participating in the parade and do not support the government, they will always recover these housing.
Although the social plan of the Chavez model can improve the situation of the poor in the short term, the negative effect is very obvious.It only allows the poor to be unwilling to get rid of the poor situation through personal struggle, but rely on the government's generous gift.To make matters worse, if you want to continue to get the poorTo hold, the government must continue to maintain and expand these welfare policies.This is unsustainable from the current or long -term perspective.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
